A more market oriented outcome would potentially lead to substantial global benefits, with world agricultural trade estimated to expand by US$47 billion (in 2005 dollars) in 2016, relative to what would otherwise be the case.

The findings are contained in ABARE's new report, The Cairns Group – Catalyst for agricultural trade reform, released today by the Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Trade, Mark Vaile.

Karen Schneider, acting Executive Director of ABARE, explains that the report analyses the prospects for increased Cairns Group trade and highlights the benefits of more market oriented agricultural trade reform.

Formed in 1986, the Cairns Group is a coalition of 18 agricultural exporting countries aiming to foster freer trade in agricultural products.

The Cairns Group has been an important catalyst for global agricultural trade reform, particularly during the Uruguay Round of multilateral trade negotiations.

The Cairns Group has continued to advocate and pursue trade reform during the current Doha Round of negotiations.

"There are opportunities for multilateral trade reform that could benefit the Cairns Group countries. These opportunities are expected to be influenced by the extent to which the gap in the level of reform ambition can be narrowed between key WTO member countries," Ms Schneider said.

Under more market oriented multilateral trade reform, the gross value of Cairns Group agricultural production is estimated to increase by US$20 billion (in 2005 dollars) in 2016, relative to what would otherwise be the case. This represents a nearly 5 per cent increase in the value of production in the agricultural sector in Cairns Group countries in 2016.

For several Cairns Group member countries, most notably New Zealand, Argentina and Brazil, the estimated increase in the value of production is even larger.