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18 September 2007 |
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| Dry winter slashes crop forecast |
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| After one of the best starts to the season in a number of years in most states, dry conditions in the past two months have resulted in winter crop forecasts being revised down, as revealed in ABARE's September Australian Crop Report. "Winter grain production in 2007-08 is now forecast to total 25.6 million tonnes, compared with 37 million tonnes forecast in June. This is 27 per cent below the five year average, but well above last year"s severely drought affected crop," commented Karen Schneider, ABARE's Acting Executive Director, on releasing the September issue of the Australian Crop Report. Most cropping regions of Australia recorded below to very much below average winter rainfall. August was a particularly dry month, with above average daytime temperatures in most states and strong winds, which placed crops in a vulnerable position heading into spring. "September rainfall to date has also been below average in most states, with the exception of central Queensland and parts of southern Western Australia. The dry conditions have resulted in a downward revision of forecast winter crop production as the yield potential of most crops has declined rapidly over the past month," Ms Schneider explained. The biggest decline in yield potential has occurred in New South Wales and South Australia, reflecting below to very much below average winter rainfall and virtually no September rainfall to date. "Of the major winter grains, wheat production is forecast to be around 15.5 million tonnes in 2007-08, around 28 per cent below the five year average but well above the 9.8 million tonnes harvested last year," Ms Schneider said. Barley production in 2007-08 is forecast to reach around 5.9 million tonnes. Although this is a significant increase in production from 2006-07, it is well below the five year average. These forecasts are dependent on receiving spring rainfall to stabilise yields at current estimates. Total summer crop area is forecast to increase by 36 per cent to just over 1 million hectares in 2007-08. However, this is still 30 per cent below the five year average. "Despite some rainfall in parts of northern New South Wales and southern Queensland recharging soil moisture profiles, water storages still remain critically low," Ms Schneider concluded. |
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| For media interviews and comment, please contact Dr Terry Sheales, Chief Commodity Analyst on mobile 0438 236 749 or CDMA 0427 917 815. If Dr Sheales is unavailable because of his travel commitments, please contact Amelia Brown, commodity analyst on 02 6272 2004 for interview. Opportunities for TV interviews are also available with John Hogan, manager, agricultural commodity analysis on 02 6272 2056, mobile 0407 458 526 or email jhogan@abare.gov.au. For copies of the September issue of the Australian Crop Report, visit the ABARE website www.abare.gov.au or phone Publications on 02 6272 2010. For general media enquiries, contact Maree Finnegan, Media Coordinator on 02 6272 2260, mobile 0417 689 567 or email mfinnegan@abare.gov.au. |
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