abare.gov.au

24 September 2007

Higher commodity exports despite poor season

Australian commodity export earnings are forecast to increase by 4 per cent to $144.7 billion in 2007-08, according to the September issue of ABARE's Australian Commodities.

"Farm export earnings are forecast to rise by more than 3 per cent to $28.5 billion in 2007-08, despite poor seasonal conditions in many parts of Australia meaning earnings will fall short of earlier expectations", said Phillip Glyde, Executive Director, ABARE, on releasing the report today.

The increase in farm export earnings reflects a combination of mostly higher volumes shipped and good prices in global markets for grains and oilseeds, wool, beef and veal, lamb, wine and dairy products.

A forecast winter grains crop of 25.6 million tonnes in 2007-08, over 60 per cent greater than last year"s drought affected harvest, will contribute to a 3.6 per cent boost in export earnings from crops.

Mr Glyde was keen to point out, however, "that while much of the commodity focus has recently been on the lack of rain and its effect on both irrigated and non-irrigated agriculture, mineral resources will continue to be far and away the mainstay of Australia's commodity export performance".

The value of Australia's minerals and energy exports is forecast to be around $112 billion in 2007-08, a rise of 4 per cent from $108 billion in 2006-07. The forecast increase mainly reflects the effects of higher export volumes for mineral and energy commodities.

"We are now starting to see the benefits of recent high levels of investment in the Australian mining industry, with the volume of mineral resources production and exports increasing. For example, export volumes of iron ore and coal are forecast to increase by 13 per cent and 7 per cent respectively in 2007-08," Mr Glyde said.

Earnings from energy exports are forecast to increase by more than 5 per cent to $41 billion, supported by an increase in the value of thermal coal and crude oil exports.

The metals and other minerals industries are forecast to contribute nearly $71 billion – an increase of 4 per cent – to Australian exports in 2007-08. Mineral commodities for which export earnings are forecast to increase significantly in 2007-08 include iron ore, copper and gold.

The September issue of Australian Commodities also features articles on:

climate change: issues and challenges for Australian agriculture and forestry,
Korean agriculture: implications of structural change for Australian agriculture,
Indonesian agriculture: implications of import regulations for Australian agricultural exports.

For media interviews and comment, please contact Dr Terry Sheales, Chief Commodity Analyst, ABARE on 02 6272 2054 or 0438 236 749.

For free downloads of the September issue of Australian Commodities, visit the ABARE website www.abare.gov.au or phone Publications on 02 6272 2010.

For general media enquiries, contact Maree Finnegan, Media Coordinator on 02 6272 2260, mobile 0417 689 567 or email mfinnegan@abare.gov.au.