
OUTLOOK 2007 7 March 2007 |
| Agricultural trade liberalisation key to export growth |
| Future growth in Australia's agricultural exports depends on further global trade liberalisation through the Doha Round of multilateral trade negotiations, as well as through changes in world population and income, Dr Don Gunasekera, ABARE's acting Chief Economist, told delegates at the OUTLOOK 2007 conference today.
"Complete liberalisation of world merchandise trade is estimated to lead to a US$9 billion increase in Australian agricultural exports by 2020, relative to a base case where current policies are maintained." "Similarly, global agricultural trade is estimated to increase by US$286 billion by 2020, with the bulk of this increase benefiting developing countries," Dr Gunasekera concluded. But according to Dr Stefan Tangermann, Director for Trade and Agriculture, OECD, the focus on developing countries in the Doha Round has added a new dimension to the negotiations. "Failure to reach a resolution on agriculture in the Round to date can be attributed to the demands for big reductions in domestic support and market access barriers, compared with what was achieved in the Uruguay Round," Dr Tangermann said. The opening of agricultural markets has been a challenge for the European Union, said Dr Peter Balas, Deputy Director General for Trade, European Commission. However he recognised that this is necessary to achieve EU ambitions in the services and industrials aspects of the negotiations. He also emphasized that for a successful outcome to the Doha Round, the United States needs to make more ambitious cuts and adopt stricter disciplines in trade-distorting domestic farm subsidies. Ken Roberts, Director of International Business Relations for Kraft Foods in Washington, DC, agreed that one of the real problems in attaining a result to the Doha Round is that domestic programs have never easily been changed. "While the US Administration proposal for the US Farm Bill is a move in the right direction, it has not gone far enough at reducing agricultural support, particularly for the dairy and sugar industries," Mr Roberts said. |
| Copies of available speakers' presentation and papers are available at ABARE's OUTLOOK website, OUTLOOK 2007 or phone 02 6272 2010. For general media enquiries, contact Maree Finnegan, Media Coordinator on 02 6272 2260 or email mfinnegan@abare.gov.au. |