
OUTLOOK 2007 6 March 2007 |
| World economic growth to support record commodity exports |
| Speaking at the OUTLOOK 2007 conference today, Phillip Glyde, Executive Director of ABARE, said that the value of commodity exports is forecast to increase by 7 per cent to a record $148 billion in 2007-08.
The total value of Australia's minerals and energy exports is forecast to reach $116 billion in 2007-08, following a forecast rise of 17 per cent to $108 billion in 2006-07. Under the assumption of average seasonal conditions, the value of farm exports is forecast to be $27.2 billion in 2007-08, compared with a forecast $26.3 billion in 2006-07. "The forecast increase in commodity export earnings is underpinned by strong performance in the world economy. In particular, continued high economic growth in China is expected to provide support for commodity demand," Mr Glyde told the conference. Presenting an OUTLOOK for the world economy, Peter Morgan, Chief Economist, Asia Pacific HSBC, told the conference that expansion of the global economy is expected to March on in 2007, albeit at a pace slower than in 2006. According to Mr Morgan, economic growth in the world"s largest economy, the United States, is expected to slow in the short term. Offsetting the effect of slower US economic growth will be continued strong economic performance in China and its neighbouring countries in east and south east Asia. Supported by strong export performance, the economic expansion in Australia will continue in 2007, according to Dr Chris Caton, Chief Economist, BT Financial Group. Economic growth in Australia is forecast to be around 2.8 per cent in 2007, before rising to 3.5 per cent in 2008. Presenting an OUTLOOK for the Australian dollar, Dr Caton told the conference that Australian exporters are unlikely to get much relief from the Australian exchange rate in 2007. He indicated that he Australian dollar is forecast to average around US75c in the next two years. |
| Copies of available speakers' presentation and papers are available at ABARE's OUTLOOK website, OUTLOOK 2007 or phone 02 6272 2010. For general media enquiries, contact Maree Finnegan, Media Coordinator on 02 6272 2260 or email mfinnegan@abare.gov.au. |