“Australian wheat production in 2008-09 is now forecast to be 19.9 million tonnes, some 11 per cent less than forecast in September,” Mr Glyde said. Mr Glyde added that, ”despite the poor spring in some areas total wheat production is forecast to be around 7 million tonnes above last year’s drought affected harvest”.

Rainfall in the critical September and October months was well below average in Victoria, resulting in widespread crop failures. Wheat production in Victoria is now forecast to be 1.4 million tonnes in 2008-09, compared with ABARE’s September forecast of 2.7 million tonnes and last season’s harvest of 1.9 million tonnes.

Mr Glyde noted that, “rainfall in parts of South Australia was also below average in September and October”. While winter crop prospects have deteriorated in South Australia there is extreme variability in yield potential across the state. Wheat production is forecast to be 2.3 million tonnes in 2008-09, 1.1 million tonnes below the September forecast and similar to last year’s harvest.

The condition of winter crops in New South Wales varies considerably across the state. Mr Glyde noted ”the north of the state and most of the central west are expecting average to above average yields, whereas crops in western areas of the state and much of the south are in poor condition”. Mr Glyde added that, “as a result, New South Wales’ wheat production is forecast to be similar to the September figure of around 6.6 million tonnes, with the effect of poor conditions in the south being offset by better conditions in the north and central west”.

Late frost across parts of the Western Australia grains belt may affect grain quality and has resulted in some crop losses. Despite this setback, a forecast wheat crop of around 7.8 million tonnes is 1.7 million tonnes better than last year’s outcome. Harvest has commenced in Queensland and the quality and quantity of grain is better than originally anticipated.

Australian barley production is forecast to be 6.3 million tonnes in 2008-09, a 20 per cent decline from ABARE’s September forecast. Canola production is forecast to be 1.3 million tonnes in 2008-09, a decline of nearly 320 000 tonnes from the September forecast.

A ABARE forecasts of Australian winter crop production a
	1994-95	2002-03	2006-07	2007-08 s	2008-09 f
					June	September	October
	kt	kt	kt	kt	kt	kt	kt
Australia b
Wheat	8,961	10,132	10,822	13,039	23,680	22,460	19,907
Barley	2,913	3,865	4,257	5,920	7,942	7,836	6,295
Canola	264	871	573	1,065	1,665	1,647	1,330
Total	12,138	14,868	15,652	20,024	33,287	31,943	27,532
New South Wales
Wheat	875	2,497	2,568	1,800	7,412	6,587	6,587
Barley	291	428	753	650	1,754	1,547	1,547
Canola	73	184	54	44	338	297	260
Total	1,239	3,109	3,375	2,494	9,504	8,431	8,394
Victoria
Wheat	934	890	879	1,850	2,841	2,665	1,403
Barley	448	478	605	1,100	1,640	1,558	820
Canola	57	177	42	200	352	344	115
Total	1,439	1,545	1,526	3,150	4,833	4,567	2,338
Queensland
Wheat	225	601	777	910	1,567	1,492	1,716
Barley	73	148	79	160	166	158	182
Total	298	749	856	1,070	1,733	1,650	1,898
Western Australia
Wheat	5,438	4,047	5,134	6,100	8,322	8,255	7,842
Barley	915	1,349	1,808	2,200	2,134	2,340	2,223
Canola	108	299	392	665	730	775	805
Total	6,461	5,695	7,334	8,965	11,186	11,370	10,870
South Australia
Wheat	1,487	2,072	1,446	2,346	3,506	3,426	2,329
Barley	1,159	1,440	996	1,777	2,220	2,206	1,500
Canola	26	210	84	155	245	230	150
Total	2,672	3,722	2,526	4,278	5,971	5,862	3,979
a all of the years shown in this table were affected by drought. b  total includes Tasmania. f Previous and current forecasts for winter grain production published in the Australian Crop Report. s estimate.