
4 March 2008 |
| Record commodity exports in sight |
| The value of Australia's commodity exports is forecast to increase to a record $189 billion in 2008-09, 30 per cent higher than forecast for 2007-08.
Executive Director of the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics (ABARE), Phillip Glyde, said that the forecast increase in commodity exports is underpinned by continued robust performance in the mineral resources sector and an expected strong recovery in the farm sector. The value of Australia's mineral resources exports is forecast to be $153 billion in 2008-09, a rise of 33 per cent from a forecast $115 billion in 2007-08. Assuming average seasonal conditions, the value of farm exports is forecast to reach $31 billion in 2008-09, 18 per cent higher than a forecast $27 billion in 2007-08. "Despite the economic slowdown in the United States, continued strong performance in the emerging market economies, particularly China and India, should provide support for higher commodity demand and export shipments," Mr Glyde said. Managing Director and Head of Asia Pacific Economic and Market Analysis in Citigroup, Yiping Huang, said that China and the rest of Asian economies are expected to be resilient to weaker economic growth in the United States. Nevertheless, downside risks to the Asian economic OUTLOOK have increased. "There is a possibility that China"s economy will be adversely affected by the potential slowing in exports, which could also affect domestic economic conditions," Dr Huang said. However, continued industrialisation and urbanisation in China are expected to support global commodity demand and prices. ANZ bank Chief Economist Saul Eslake said the economic expansion in Australia is expected to be robust for the next two years. Economic growth in Australia is forecast to be 3.3 per cent in 2008, before declining to 2.8 per cent in 2009. "For Australia, the problem is too much growth, not too little, with inflation being now the primary policy concern," Mr Eslake said. |
| Session – Economic Overview For media interviews and comment, please contact Phillip Glyde, Executive Director, ABARE on 02 6272 2100 or mobile 0416 915 884 (Rhonda Wolens, EA). Copies of available speakers' presentations and papers are available on ABARE's website www.abare.gov.au/OUTLOOK or phone Publications on 02 6272 2010. For general media enquiries, contact Maree Finnegan, Media Coordinator on 02 6272 2260, mobile 0417 689 567 or email mfinnegan@abare.gov.au. |