“The forecast decline in farm export earnings in 2009-10 mainly reflects the adverse effects of a significantly higher Australian exchange rate, especially against the US dollar, and a downward revision to winter crop production in the current season,” Dr Sheales said.

The value of farm exports is forecast to fall by 6 per cent to $30 billion in 2009-10, following a significant rise of 16 per cent to $32 billion in 2008-09.

The latest forecast of farm export earnings in 2009-10 represents a downward revision from the $31.1 billion forecast released by ABARE in September. However, at a forecast $30 billion, farm export earnings in 2009-10 will still be around 9 per cent higher than the $27.5 billion recorded in 2007-08.

Agricultural commodities for which export earnings are forecast to rise in 2009-10 include raw cotton, sugar, chickpeas, peas and rice. However, the effects of these increases are forecast to be more than offset by lower export earnings for wheat, barley, canola, livestock and livestock products.

Earnings from energy and minerals exports are forecast to fall by 20 per cent to close to $129 billion in 2009-10.

“The combined effect of lower bulk commodity contract prices, including for coal and iron ore, and an assumed stronger Australian dollar is expected to more than offset the positive effect on earnings of forecast higher export volumes in 2009-10,” Dr Sheales said.

This latest figure for mineral resources exports represents an upward revision from the $123 billion forecast released by ABARE in September.

The value of energy exports is forecast to fall by 31 per cent to around $54 billion in 2009-10. For metals and other minerals, export earnings are forecast to decline by 10 per cent to around $75 billion in 2009-10.

Australian mine production is forecast to rise by 7 per cent in 2009-10, with increases in both energy commodities and metals and other minerals outputs.