“A substantial increase in crop production combined with a significant depreciation of the Australian dollar is expected to support farm export earnings in the short term,” Mr Glyde said.

However, total earnings from Australia’s commodity exports are forecast to fall by 17 per cent to $162 billion in 2009-10, following an estimated rise of 33 per cent to $196 billion in 2008-09.

This expected fall in the value of total commodity exports mainly reflects a forecast decline of 22 per cent in export earnings from mineral resources to $126 billion in 2009-10 from $161 billion in 2008-09.

Farm exports are forecast to increase by 12 per cent to $30.8 billion in 2008-09, before rising further by a further 4 per cent to $32.1 billion in 2009-10. This updated forecast for 2008-09 represents an upward revision from the forecast of $29.4 billion released by ABARE in the December issue of Australian commodities.

Farm products for which export earnings are forecast to increase in 2009-10 include wheat, barley, canola, lupins, peas, raw cotton, sugar and lamb.

For energy and minerals, significantly lower export earnings are forecast in 2009-10 mainly as a result of expected lower contract prices for bulk commodities and weaker prices for base metals and aluminium.

“The value of energy exports is forecast to fall by 34 per cent to $51 billion in 2009-10, largely driven by sharply lower forecast prices for oil and coal,” Mr Glyde said.

For metals and other minerals, export earnings are forecast to decline by 11 per cent to $75 billion in 2009-10. An expected significant fall in prices for Australian iron ore is projected to account for the majority of this decline.