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Wineries’ required intake of wine grapes to 2009-10
Demand for wine grapes is estimated by assessing winery requirements. Estimates of required winery intake are collected annually by the Australian Wine and Brandy Corporation (AWBC) as part of the National Utilisation Project. These estimates are published in the 2007 Australian Regional Wine Grape Crush Survey. The survey incorporates winemakers’ contractual arrangements and expected future grape purchases, as well as estimates of demand for Australian wine in domestic and export markets.

Historically, the survey requested winemakers’ estimates of preferred and expected wine grape intake. Because the total supply of wine grapes has recently been sufficient to meet demand, this differentiation is no longer necessary. Reflecting this more recent view, winemakers are now asked to provide estimates of committed and required intakes. The quantity of wine grapes demanded by wineries in a particular season is most accurately reflected by required intake and is comparable to the historical estimates of preferred intake.
Required intake by wineries, 2007-08 to 2009-10
The estimate of required intake in the survey is the quantity of grapes wineries need to crush in order to achieve sales forecasts, taking into account seasonal conditions and grape availability. For this reason required intake is not a true demand forecast but one that is moderated by expected availability of wine grapes.

In 2007-08, the required intake of grapes by wineries is expected to be 1.81 million tonnes, an increase of 35 per cent from the 2006-07 crush of 1.34 million tonnes (table 5). In line with expected production changes, the expected increase in the intake of premium red grape varieties (51 per cent) is greater than the expected increase in the intake of premium white grape varieties (19 per cent).

The required intake of wine grapes is expected to increase to 1.91 million tonnes in 2008-09 and 1.97 million tonnes in 2009-10. These expectations are based on a return to ‘average’ seasonal conditions, and clearly, if conditions similar to those of 2006-07 are repeated, intake quantities will be reduced.

Total required intake of red wine grapes is expected to increase by 7 per cent from 2007-08 to 2009-10. Increases in the intake of major varieties such as shiraz (9 per cent) and cabernet sauvignon (8 per cent) will be the major drivers of this increase. Total required intake of white wine grape varieties is expected to increase by 10 per cent, driven by chardonnay (8 per cent), semillon (9 per cent) and sauvignon blanc (17 per cent).

Reflecting the impact of drought conditions, the projected intake of multipurpose grapes is expected to decline by 10 per cent to 70 577 tonnes in 2007-08. Over the period 2007-08 to 2009-10, overall intake of multipurpose grapes is expected to remain relatively flat. Recently, production of some minor varieties such as viognier and tempranillo has increased dramatically in some regions of Australia (AWBC 2008). In absolute terms, however, production of these varieties remains relatively small.
5 Actual and required intake in Australia, by variety
spacer
actual Intake
projected required intake
change
2007-08 to
spacer
2005-06
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2009-10
kt
kt
kt
kt
kt
%
spacer
Premium white
Chardonnay
422
373
391
410
424
8
Chenin blanc
11
8
10
10
10
0
Colombard
79
56
73
82
84
15
Muscadelle
1
0
0
0
0
0
Pinot gris
9
14
33
46
50
52
Riesling
40
31
36
37
38
6
Sauvignon blanc
41
39
74
82
86
16
Semillon
100
76
94
99
102
9
Traminer
11
8
10
10
11
10
Verdelho
18
14
16
17
17
6
Total
733
619
737
793
822
12
spacer
Non premium white
Crouchen
2
2
2
2
2
0
Doradillo
2
2
2
2
2
0
Palomino
1
0
0
0
0
0
Trebbiano
4
3
2
2
2
0
spacer
Total
9
7
6
6
6
0
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Premium red
Cabernet franc
3
2
2
2
2
0
Cabernet sauvignon
296
176
276
287
299
8
Malbec
4
2
2
2
2
0
Merlot
130
91
126
129
128
2
Petit verdot
25
14
15
14
14
–7
Pinot noir
32
26
51
54
56
10
Ruby cabernet
27
15
14
15
15
7
Shiraz
435
275
419
441
457
9
spacer
Total
951
600
905
944
973
8
spacer
Non premium red
Grenache
23
15
21
22
22
5
Mataro     
11
6
5
5
5
0
Total
34
21
26
27
27
4
Multipurpose
61
57
71
72
71
0
Minor varieties
41
34
67
70
70
4
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Total
1 844
1 338
1 812
1 912
1 969
9