
![]() |
| Financial performance of beef farms, 2005-06 to 2007-08 |
| Stephen Hooper and Sarah Crooks |
Over the past decade, the Australian beef industry has undergone a period of expansion, with producers responding to higher prices by expanding cattle and production (figure a). However, adverse seasonal conditions in recent years have impeded producers’ ability to maintain growth in cattle numbers. Detailed estimates of production and financial performance are presented in this report to highlight the impact of the past two years’ seasonal conditions on beef cattle businesses. In particular, this report focuses on beef cattle producers’ financial capacity to recover from recent droughts and to continue to expand production, should seasonal conditions permit. For the purposes of this report, broadacre farms have been classified as being beef cattle producers if they have more than 100 head of cattle. To investigate the physical and financial performance of beef cattle producers of differing scales, producers surveyed by ABARE have been classified as being in one of four groups — small, medium, large and very large — based on the size of their beef cattle herd (table 1). Beef cattle producers in northern Australia, in general, operate significantly larger farms (in terms of area operated and number of cattle run) than their southern counterparts. To enable a meaningful analysis, northern and southern beef industry producers have been allocated to different size groups in these regions (tables 1 and 2). Broadacre producers with fewer than 100 head of cattle account for just 3 per cent of Australia’s broadacre beef cattle herd and, on average, generate less than 10 per cent of farm cash receipts from the sale of cattle. These producers have therefore been excluded from the analysis. |
|
||||
northern Australia |
southern Australia |
|||
| Small | 100 – 400 |
100 – 200 |
||
| Medium | 400 – 1 600 |
200 – 400 |
||
| Large | 1 600 – 5 400 |
400 – 800 |
||
| Very large | > 5 400 |
> 800 |
||
|
||||||
number of farms |
share of farms |
share of beef cattle |
share of value of cattle sales |
|||
no |
% |
% |
% |
|||
| Northern Australia | ||||||
| < 100 | 2 504 |
22.6 |
1 |
2 |
||
| 100 – 400 head | 3 581 |
32.4 |
6 |
8 |
||
| 400 – 800 head | 1 494 |
13.5 |
6 |
7 |
||
| 800 – 1 600 head | 1 602 |
14.5 |
15 |
15 |
||
| 1 600 – 5 400 head | 1 471 |
13.3 |
31 |
31 |
||
| > 5 400 head | 405 |
3.7 |
40 |
36 |
||
| Total | 11 058 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
||
| Southern Australia | ||||||
| < 100 | 10 611 |
33 |
6 |
6 |
||
| 100 – 400 head | 14 659 |
45.6 |
33 |
29 |
||
| 400 – 800 head | 4 964 |
15.4 |
29 |
26 |
||
| 800 – 1 600 head | 1 446 |
4.5 |
17 |
15 |
||
| 1 600 – 5 400 head | 433 |
1.3 |
11 |
10 |
||
| > 5 400 head | 39 |
0.1 |
4 |
14 |
||
| Total | 32 153 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
||
| Australia | ||||||
| < 100 | 13 115 |
30.4 |
3 |
4 |
||
| 100 – 400 head | 18 240 |
42.2 |
17 |
19 |
||
| 400 – 800 head | 6 458 |
14.9 |
16 |
17 |
||
| 800 – 1 600 head | 3 048 |
7.1 |
15 |
15 |
||
| 1 600 – 5 400 head | 1 905 |
4.4 |
23 |
20 |
||
| > 5 400 head | 444 |
1 |
25 |
25 |
||
| Total | 43 211 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
||
| Impact of the drought on the beef cattle herd |
| Since the drought in 2002-03 seasonal conditions have differed between northern and southern Australia. In northern Australia, drought conditions returned in 2005-06, resulting in some northern beef cattle producers increasing turnoff rates and reducing cattle numbers (figure b and table 3). Small-scale producers in the high rainfall and cropping belt of southern Queensland were most adversely affected. On average, small producers in northern Australia reduced beef cattle numbers by around 10 per cent per farm in 2005-06. In 2006-07, improved seasonal conditions in northern Australia boosted pasture growth and enabled producers to commence rebuilding animal numbers. The exception was in southern and central Queensland, where drought conditions persisted into 2006-07. Beef cattle producers in this region continued to reduce livestock numbers. In 2007-08, average to above average conditions in most parts of northern Australia, except in the southern part of the Northern Territory, boosted calf production and led to continued expansion in cattle numbers. In 2007-08, cattle numbers are projected to increase, on average, by 8.5 per cent (figure b and table 3). In southern Australia, production was affected by dry conditions in 2004-05 and a drought in 2006-07. Beef cattle producers responded to reduced on-farm feed availability by increasing cattle turnoff rates and reducing livestock numbers. In 2006-07, cattle numbers fell on average by almost 4 per cent per farm. Producers of all scales of beef cattle production reduced cattle numbers, although small producers de-stocked more intensively. Seasonal conditions early in 2007-08 were dry; however good spring and summer rainfall in many parts of southern Australia boosted pasture growth and increased livestock production. At the time the survey was conducted, in November 2007, many producers indicated they intended to respond to the recovery in on-farm feed production by reducing turnoff rates and rebuilding animal numbers. However, conditions remained dry in Tasmania and parts of South Australia and Victoria, where producers are projected to continue to de-stock in 2007-08. Overall, cattle numbers are projected to rise by 2.1 per cent in southern Australia. The latest ABS slaughter data indicates producers realised their intentions to reduce turnoff of cattle for slaughter. In March 2008, 652 000 head of cattle were slaughtered, around 13 per cent fewer than in March 2007. In the nine months to March 2008 almost 5.8 million head of cattle were slaughtered in Australia, 6 per cent less than for the same period in 2006-07 (figure c). |
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| Farm financial performance in northern Australia |
| 2006-07 |
| In 2006-07, farm financial performance in the northern beef industry is estimated to have recovered following the 2005-06 drought. Reduced turnoff rates for beef cattle resulted in lower incomes in 2006-07; however the increased cattle numbers and values of trading stocks led to farm business profits more than doubling to almost $57 500 a farm in 2006-07 (figure d and table 4). Total farm cash receipts are estimated to have increased by 8 per cent as a result of higher livestock and cropping receipts. Improved seasonal conditions in 2006-07 led to a recovery in branding rates and increased calf production. While many of these calves were retained to expand cattle numbers, producers also increased cattle sales. Increased sales more than offset the impact of a 6 per cent decline in the average price received for cattle, resulting in beef cattle receipts rising on average by 4 per cent. In addition, improved conditions enabled producers to increase the area sown to grain crops, particularly in Queensland. The resultant increase in grain production and sales caused cropping receipts to rise by 23 per cent to $38 000 per farm. Farm cash costs are estimated to have increased by 25 per cent in 2006-07, mainly because of increased outlays on cattle purchases, fodder and interest. Improved seasonal conditions and producers’ generally high level of confidence concerning the immediate future of the beef industry encouraged many beef cattle producers to accelerate their rate of herd rebuilding by increasing purchases of beef cattle. Rising debt levels and higher interest rates increased interest repayments to $57 000 a farm, making interest payments the second largest cost after cattle purchases. Continued reliance on purchased fodder, in conjunction with record grain and hay prices, resulted in producers spending 35 per cent more on fodder in 2006-07. |
|
||||||||||||
small |
medium |
large |
||||||||||
2005-06 |
2006-07 |
2007-08 |
2005-06 |
2006-07 |
2007-08 |
2005-06 |
2006-07 |
2007-08 |
||||
| Northern Australia | ||||||||||||
| Change in beef cattle | ||||||||||||
| numbers | % | –10.3 |
–14.7 |
5.7 |
–0.4 |
2.4 |
0.6 |
–0.6 |
7.2 |
4.4 |
||
| Calves branded | no | 81 |
79 |
88 |
263 |
292 |
293 |
735 |
876 |
911 |
||
| Beef cattle purchases | no | 52 |
31 |
11 |
74 |
76 |
39 |
165 |
165 |
54 |
||
| Beef cattle sales | no | 142 |
135 |
83 |
311 |
343 |
321 |
822 |
772 |
801 |
||
| Change in sheep numbers | % | –11.4 |
–2.6 |
–8.2 |
6.9 |
–17.0 |
5.6 |
–3.1 |
14 |
9 |
||
| Area cropped | ha | 126 |
107 |
125 |
129 |
166 |
215 |
101 |
196 |
134 |
||
| Southern Australia | ||||||||||||
| Change in beef cattle | ||||||||||||
| numbers | % | –3.1 |
–8.1 |
–15.0 |
0.5 |
–4.4 |
2.3 |
3.6 |
–2.6 |
2.9 |
||
| Calves branded | no | 62 |
55 |
75 |
105 |
107 |
114 |
184 |
215 |
230 |
||
| Beef cattle purchases | no | 23 |
36 |
13 |
41 |
127 |
39 |
113 |
75 |
62 |
||
| Beef cattle sales | no | 85 |
98 |
109 |
140 |
235 |
145 |
267 |
291 |
266 |
||
| Change in sheep | ||||||||||||
| numbers | % | 6.4 |
1.7 |
2.8 |
0.9 |
0 |
3.9 |
3.8 |
4.2 |
-6.7 |
||
| Area cropped | ha | 281 |
142 |
162 |
158 |
237 |
105 |
147 |
277 |
112 |
||
very large |
all producers |
|||||||||||
2005-06 |
2006-07 |
2007-08 |
2005-06 |
2006-07 |
2007-08 |
|||||||
| Northern Australia | ||||||||||||
| Change in beef cattle | ||||||||||||
| numbers | % | –0.7 |
9.6 |
16.6 |
–1.1 |
6.2 |
8.5 |
|||||
| Calves branded | no | 3 563 |
3 477 |
3 919 |
419 |
547 |
470 |
|||||
| Beef cattle purchases | no | 277 |
565 |
109 |
91 |
111 |
32 |
|||||
| Beef cattle sales | no | 2 803 |
2 378 |
3 081 |
446 |
491 |
422 |
|||||
| Change in sheep | ||||||||||||
| numbers | % | –72.9 |
na |
na |
–2.2 |
–6.6 |
0.1 |
|||||
| Area cropped | ha | 54 |
94 |
17 |
120 |
146 |
155 |
|||||
| Southern Australia | ||||||||||||
| Change in beef cattle | ||||||||||||
| numbers | % | 2.4 |
–3.3 |
7 |
1.8 |
–3.9 |
2.1 |
|||||
| Calves branded | no | 561 |
610 |
583 |
160 |
177 |
182 |
|||||
| Beef cattle purchases | no | 134 |
213 |
88 |
65 |
91 |
43 |
|||||
| Beef cattle sales | no | 630 |
796 |
561 |
208 |
269 |
209 |
|||||
| Change in sheep | ||||||||||||
| numbers | % | 3.4 |
5.1 |
–1.1 |
3.8 |
2.8 |
0.3 |
|||||
| Area cropped | ha | 372 |
537 |
290 |
208 |
249 |
143 |
|||||
| Financial performance by herd size |
| In 2006-07, large and very large beef cattle producers realised lower farm cash incomes as a result of weaker cattle prices and reduced turnoff as producers expanded livestock numbers. However, a sharp increase in the value of trading stocks resulted in farm business profits rising on average by 77 per cent for large producers, and by 20 per cent for very large producers (figures e1, e2 and table 4). In contrast, farm incomes and profits of small and medium sized producers deteriorated during 2006-07. Small producers are more concentrated in southern and coastal Queensland, where persistent drought conditions resulted in lower grain and calf production. Farm incomes were adversely affected by reduced sales of cattle, lower prices and higher costs. Further reductions in sheep and beef cattle numbers led to a fall in the value of trading stocks. This, combined with lower farm cash incomes, resulted in average farm business losses for small producers increasing from $71 000 per farm in 2005-06 to almost $83 000 per farm in 2006-07. Medium sized beef cattle producers experienced sufficient improvement in seasonal conditions to start rebuilding cattle numbers and boost sales. However, growth in cattle sales did not offset the impact of lower commodity prices, resulting in farm cash incomes falling in 2006-07. A net rebuilding of livestock numbers during the year boosted the value of trading stocks and resulted in farm business profits falling by less than farm cash incomes. |
|
|||||||||||||||
small |
medium |
large |
|||||||||||||
2005-06 |
2006-07 |
2007-08 |
2005-06 |
2006-07
|
2007-08 |
2005-06 |
2006-07 |
2007-08 |
|||||||
| Farm cash receipts | |||||||||||||||
| Beef cattle | $ |
103 423 |
92 840 |
(10) |
56 100 |
241 495 |
235 780 |
(7) |
240 700 |
745 795 |
596 530 |
(6) |
611 000 |
||
| Beef cattle transferred | |||||||||||||||
| off-farm | $ |
3 944 |
120 |
(109) |
na |
6 969 |
1 220 |
(100) |
na |
42 842 |
15 440 |
(73) |
na |
||
| Crops | $ |
41 469 |
33 380 |
(59) |
87 200 |
32 230 |
39 720 |
(63) |
102 700 |
14 858 |
41 950 |
(53) |
74 300 |
||
| Sheep and lambs | $ |
2 879 |
2 080 |
(40) |
15 100 |
3 035 |
7 420 |
(44) |
12 800 |
3 088 |
3 110 |
(79) |
5 600 |
||
| Wool | $ |
6 446 |
9 360 |
(31) |
14 800 |
5 921 |
15 600 |
(56) |
23 300 |
6 782 |
11 230 |
(81) |
14 500 |
||
| Total cash receipts | $ |
185 276 |
171 350 |
(13) |
192 100 |
323 311 |
343 600 |
(8) |
413 300 |
862 399 |
765 110 |
(7) |
778 200 |
||
| Farm cash costs | |||||||||||||||
| Beef cattle purchases | $ |
27 487 |
18 320 |
(24) |
7 100 |
46 660 |
44 930 |
(15) |
24 300 |
134 657 |
114 010 |
(19) |
41 300 |
||
| Chemicals | $ |
5 249 |
3 710 |
(23) |
3 500 |
7 193 |
4 790 |
(37) |
8 500 |
6 951 |
5 300 |
(40) |
8 900 |
||
| Contracts | $ |
9 246 |
4 540 |
(25) |
na |
14 058 |
11 780 |
(12) |
na |
23 078 |
24 270 |
(19) |
na |
||
| Fertilisers | $ |
3 734 |
3 340 |
(25) |
11 800 |
1 080 |
5 760 |
(57) |
18 700 |
2 802 |
2 690 |
(58) |
7 500 |
||
| Fodder | $ |
15 907 |
23 390 |
(14) |
7 400 |
24 338 |
31 560 |
(19) |
16 900 |
69 818 |
78 990 |
(12) |
50 300 |
||
| Fuel, oil and grease | $ |
15 009 |
13 900 |
(14) |
14 900 |
22 419 |
19 560 |
(11) |
23 300 |
41 218 |
41 310 |
(8) |
40 200 |
||
| Handling and | |||||||||||||||
| marketing | $ |
1 719 |
2 950 |
(75) |
6 500 |
3 399 |
5 160 |
(66) |
9 800 |
4 659 |
3 220 |
(6) |
20 300 |
||
| Hired labour | $ |
5 591 |
5 310 |
(16) |
4 000 |
6 319 |
10 720 |
(22) |
11 100 |
37 729 |
37 440 |
(16) |
49 500 |
||
| Interest | $ |
18 589 |
22 630 |
(19) |
21 000 |
24 482 |
40 740 |
(13) |
57 400 |
80 914 |
102 530 |
(13) |
101 400 |
||
| Repairs and | |||||||||||||||
| maintenance | $ |
16 187 |
15 480 |
(11) |
18 100 |
27 182 |
28 550 |
(10) |
34 400 |
59 172 |
62 900 |
(7) |
68 200 |
||
| Total cash costs | $ |
162 208 |
156 270 |
(13) |
139 600 |
238 375 |
287 020 |
(9) |
294 600 |
631 448 |
629 160 |
(8) |
533 600 |
||
| Farm financial performance | |||||||||||||||
| Farm cash income | $ |
23 068 |
15 080 |
(58) |
52 600 |
84 936 |
56 570 |
(29) |
118 700 |
230 951 |
135 950 |
(34) |
244 600 |
||
| Farm business profit | $ |
– 71 343 |
– 82 620 |
(8) |
– 3 300 |
– 4 195 |
– 28 490 |
(54) |
31 400 |
92 289 |
163 210 |
(33) |
206 700 |
||
| Rate of return | |||||||||||||||
| – excl. cap. appreciation | % |
–2.4 |
–2.2 |
(21) |
0.8 |
0.6 |
0.4 |
(87) |
1.7 |
2.1 |
2.6 |
(19) |
2.5 |
||
| – incl. cap. appreciation | % |
4.7 |
11.7 |
(15) |
na |
9.2 |
11.4 |
(20) |
na |
11.7 |
15.4 |
(16) |
na |
||
very large |
northern Australia |
||||||||||||||
2005-06 |
2006-07 |
2007-08 |
2005-06 |
2006-07 |
2007-08 |
||||||||||
| Farm cash receipts | |||||||||||||||
| Beef cattle | $ |
1 910 078 |
1 862 260 |
(13) |
1 585 600 |
352 794 |
366 070 |
(5) |
282 600 |
||||||
| Beef cattle transferred | |||||||||||||||
| off-farm | $ |
1 141 786 |
651 400 |
(32) |
na |
57 169 |
47 810 |
(30) |
na |
||||||
| Crops | $ |
1 975 |
41 910 |
(20) |
0 |
30 888 |
38 040 |
(34) |
86 900 |
||||||
| Sheep and lambs | $ |
5 719 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
3 101 |
4 160 |
(32) |
12 000 |
||||||
| Wool | $ |
112 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
6 009 |
11 450 |
(33) |
17 200 |
||||||
| Total cash receipts | $ |
3 143 555 |
2 680 980 |
(12) |
2 099 700 |
486 251 |
523 660 |
(5) |
454 500 |
||||||
| Farm cash costs | |||||||||||||||
| Beef cattle purchases | $ |
212 493 |
373 960 |
(29) |
134 000 |
62 686 |
71 350 |
(13) |
24 700 |
||||||
| Chemicals | $ |
3 453 |
3 620 |
(64) |
2 600 |
6 388 |
4 420 |
(19) |
6 100 |
||||||
| Contracts | $ |
83 758 |
74 870 |
(17) |
na |
16 882 |
15 940 |
(10) |
na |
||||||
| Fertilisers | $ |
2 207 |
1 020 |
(85) |
4 400 |
2 268 |
3 970 |
(33) |
13 300 |
||||||
| Fodder | $ |
186 709 |
190 820 |
(39) |
107 100 |
36 116 |
48 770 |
(13) |
22 300 |
||||||
| Fuel, oil and grease | $ |
139 114 |
124 390 |
(9) |
131 000 |
28 005 |
28 930 |
(5) |
27 300 |
||||||
| Handling and | |||||||||||||||
| marketing | $ |
11 746 |
8 800 |
(10) |
47 600 |
3 420 |
4 240 |
(36) |
11 800 |
||||||
| Hired labour | $ |
237 326 |
193 190 |
(10) |
181 300 |
20 759 |
26 430 |
(8) |
22 000 |
||||||
| Interest | $ |
123 917 |
198 160 |
(24) |
200 700 |
36 511 |
57 100 |
(8) |
55 500 |
||||||
| Repairs and | |||||||||||||||
| maintenance | $ |
181 769 |
141 660 |
(7) |
178 200 |
35 460 |
38 310 |
(4) |
39 400 |
||||||
| Total cash costs | $ |
2 070 529 |
2 325 780 |
(14) |
1 618 000 |
356 065 |
446 030 |
(6) |
327 300 |
||||||
| Farm financial performance | |||||||||||||||
| Farm cash income | $ |
1 073 026 |
355 200 |
(44) |
481 700 |
130 186 |
77 620 |
(20) |
127 200 |
||||||
| Farm business profit | $ |
809 392 |
967 370 |
(15) |
1 760 200 |
23 748 |
57 490 |
(28) |
123 800 |
||||||
| Rate of return | |||||||||||||||
| – excl. capital appreciation | % |
4.5 |
5.2 |
(11) |
8.6 |
1.4 |
1.9 |
(13) |
2.9 |
||||||
| – incl. capital appreciation | % |
12.1 |
22 |
(19) |
na |
9.9 |
15.3 |
(10) |
na |
||||||
| Note –The figures in parenthesis are relative standard errors expressed as a percentage of the estimate. | |||||||||||||||
| 2007-08 |
| Improved seasonal conditions are projected to result in northern beef producers of all herd sizes realising a strong recovery in farm incomes and profits (figures e1, e2 and table 4). Improved seasonal conditions are projected to result in producers of all scales increasing calf production, enabling most producers to increase cattle numbers and, in the case of large producers, the number of cattle sold. Increased beef cattle numbers are projected to result in more broadacre farms being classified as small and medium sized beef cattle farms. This influx of smaller farms has implications for the average per farm estimates at the regional level presented in this report. For example, on average, producers of all herd sizes are projected to have increased the number of calves branded in 2007-08 (table 3). However, the estimate for the average number of calves branded in northern Australia fell from 547 a farm in 2006-07 to a projected 470 a farm in 2007-08, reflecting the greater influence of small and medium sized producers (table 3). |
![]() |
| On average, farm cash incomes in northern Australia are projected to increase in 2007-08, as receipts rise relative to costs. Among small and medium sized beef cattle producers, increased crop production and record grain prices boosted cropping receipts. Also, these producers indicated they intended to reduce cattle turnoff in order to expand livestock numbers, resulting in fewer cattle sold in 2007-08. Farm cash costs are projected to be similar to 2006-07 levels as reduced spending on livestock purchases and fodder offset higher cropping expenses (table 4). For very large beef cattle producers, farm cash receipts are expected to fall as weaker cattle prices offset increased sales. However, farm cash costs are also projected to fall because of reduced outlays on purchased cattle and fodder. Higher farm cash incomes and further increases in cattle numbers boosted the value of trading stocks and farm business profitability. |
| Farm financial performance in southern Australia |
| 2006-07 |
| In 2006-07, farm incomes deteriorated in southern Australia as drought increased costs relative to receipts. As a result of lower incomes and a significant run-down in the value of trading stocks, farm business losses increased from almost $4500 a farm in 2005-06 to more than $60 000 a farm in 2006-07 (table 5). This is the largest average farm business loss recorded by the southern beef industry since ABARE started surveying the broadacre industry in 1977-78 (figure f). In 2006-07, total farm cash receipts rose by 13 per cent as higher beef cattle, sheep, lamb and wool receipts offset a fall in cropping receipts. Extensive drought conditions in southern Australia constrained on-farm feed availability, forcing many producers to increase turnoff and reduce cattle numbers. On average, the number of cattle sold in southern Australia rose by 29 per cent to 269 head a farm. However, increased sales of young and unfinished livestock resulted in producers receiving lower prices in 2006-07. Consequently, beef cattle receipts rose by just 14 per cent to $179 000 a farm. |
![]() |
| Despite increased plantings of winter grain crops, poor growing conditions resulted in below average yields and reduced grain production. Increased on-farm feed use to supplement pastures further constrained the amount of grain and hay for sale, resulting in crop receipts falling by 24 per cent to $57 000 a farm. Receipts from sheep and lambs increased in 2006-07, as higher commodity prices offset the impact of reduced lamb production. Wool receipts also increased, as producers responded to higher prices by running down on-farm wool stocks to boost sales. Consequently, wool receipts rose on average by 49 per cent to $42 000 a farm in 2006-07. Total cash costs increased by 24 per cent in 2006-07, because of increased outlays on purchased fodder, interest payments and cropping inputs. Reduced pasture growth and tightening on-farm feed availability resulted in many producers increasing their purchases of grain and hay, despite regional prices rising to record levels. On average, outlays on purchased fodder increased by 154 per cent to almost $30 000, or 10 per cent of total cash costs. Increased crop planting and higher input costs resulted in many producers spending considerably more on crop inputs like fuel, chemicals and fertilisers. However, reduced grain sales resulted in reduced spending on handling and marketing. |
|
|||||||||||||||
small |
medium |
large |
|||||||||||||
2005-06 |
2006-07
|
2007-08 |
2005-06 |
2006-07 |
2007-08 |
2005-06 |
2006-07
|
2007-08 |
|||||||
| Farm cash receipts | |||||||||||||||
| Beef cattle | $ |
63 009 |
56 160 |
(8) |
75 200 |
94 684 |
159 280 |
(22) |
94 000 |
215 089 |
181 960 |
(6) |
173 100 |
||
| Beef cattle transferred | |||||||||||||||
| off-farm | $ |
14 |
90 |
(85) |
na |
176 |
0 |
0 |
na |
116 |
200 |
(93) |
na |
||
| Crops | $ |
84 538 |
35 480 |
(25) |
31 800 |
41 139 |
56 920 |
(13) |
25 800 |
47 549 |
46 920 |
(41) |
24 100 |
||
| Sheep and lambs | $ |
54 340 |
27 240 |
(37) |
30 400 |
25 841 |
42 860 |
(15) |
32 900 |
34 822 |
58 900 |
(16) |
46 700 |
||
| Wool | $ |
33 151 |
23 830 |
(38) |
24 800 |
23 507 |
42 370 |
(15) |
40 100 |
18 784 |
49 170 |
(21) |
41 600 |
||
| Total cash receipts | $ |
256 213 |
170 160 |
(18) |
178 200 |
207 753 |
325 930 |
(11) |
213 100 |
336 460 |
397 030 |
(9) |
337 700 |
||
| Farm cash costs | |||||||||||||||
| Beef cattle purchases | $ |
16 800 |
16 650 |
(14) |
7 100 |
22 956 |
49 120 |
(29) |
19 500 |
80 158 |
45 010 |
(22) |
32 900 |
||
| Chemicals | $ |
10 480 |
6 340 |
(21) |
5 700 |
4 992 |
11 700 |
(18) |
6 900 |
6 938 |
11 320 |
(32) |
6 300 |
||
| Contracts | $ |
8 814 |
6 510 |
(16) |
na |
6 493 |
12 850 |
(16) |
na |
12 324 |
11 110 |
(26) |
na |
||
| Fertilisers | $ |
16 994 |
11 090 |
(34) |
11 600 |
11 390 |
16 430 |
(13) |
13 500 |
21 523 |
22 060 |
(19) |
17 800 |
||
| Fodder | $ |
5 082 |
12 140 |
(22) |
6 400 |
10 649 |
22 810 |
(19) |
6 800 |
11 173 |
41 630 |
(24) |
9 500 |
||
| Fuel, oil and grease | $ |
18 338 |
10 900 |
(13) |
12 000 |
13 565 |
16 350 |
(7) |
12 600 |
16 439 |
23 870 |
(14) |
22 000 |
||
| Handling and marketing | $ |
6 558 |
950 |
(21) |
3 900 |
2 913 |
2 010 |
(9) |
4 300 |
2 922 |
2 690 |
(11) |
7 300 |
||
| Hired labour | $ |
10 727 |
2 490 |
(41) |
4 400 |
5 541 |
7 650 |
(20) |
6 800 |
9 010 |
16 760 |
(21) |
9 900 |
||
| Interest | $ |
26 644 |
20 430 |
(27) |
17 700 |
15 633 |
29 130 |
(17) |
30 100 |
19 429 |
42 130 |
(16) |
38 400 |
||
| Repairs and maintenance | $ |
20 907 |
15 380 |
(14) |
15 200 |
16 874 |
20 210 |
(11) |
17 500 |
22 060 |
33 680 |
(14) |
27 800 |
||
| Total cash costs | $ |
222 688 |
151 620 |
(14) |
142 200 |
174 060 |
277 430 |
(10) |
182 700 |
279 911 |
360 920 |
(9) |
324 300 |
||
| Farm financial performance | |||||||||||||||
| Farm cash income | $ |
33 526 |
18 540 |
(75) |
36 000 |
33 693 |
48 510 |
(31) |
30 400 |
56 549 |
36 110 |
(50) |
13 400 |
||
| Farm business profit | $ |
– 39 100 |
– 62 040 |
(23) |
– 46 100 |
– 27 733 |
– 45 300 |
(28) |
– 32 300 |
2 158 |
– 77 830 |
(24) |
– 75 400 |
||
| Rate of return | |||||||||||||||
| – excl. capital appreciation | % |
–0.2 |
–1.6 |
(46) |
–0.8 |
–0.4 |
–0.2 |
(143) |
0.1 |
0.8 |
-0.6 |
(63) |
-0.8 |
||
| – incl. capital appreciation | % |
5.7 |
9.8 |
(72) |
na |
10 |
7.5 |
(20) |
na |
5.8 |
5.6 |
(30) |
na |
||
very large |
southern Australia |
||||||||||||||
2005-06 |
2006-07 |
2007-08 |
2005-06 |
2006-07 |
2007-08 |
||||||||||
| Farm cash receipts | |||||||||||||||
| Beef cattle | $ |
491 316 |
573 970 |
(16) |
470 400 |
157 742 |
179 100 |
(8) |
148 800 |
||||||
| Beef cattle transferred | |||||||||||||||
| off-farm | $ |
2 564 |
24 980 |
(183) |
na |
352 |
3 310 |
(179) |
na |
||||||
| Crops | $ |
250 966 |
141 390 |
(24) |
114 400 |
75 010 |
57 370 |
(12) |
36 700 |
||||||
| Sheep and lambs | $ |
57 462 |
66 240 |
(16) |
78 400 |
38 903 |
43 720 |
(9) |
40 500 |
||||||
| Wool | $ |
55 335 |
77 810 |
(16) |
60 200 |
27 924 |
41 520 |
(10) |
38 400 |
||||||
| Total cash receipts | $ |
901 235 |
971 530 |
(15) |
792 700 |
323 476 |
366 980 |
(6) |
296 500 |
||||||
| Farm cash costs | |||||||||||||||
| Beef cattle purchases | $ |
93 504 |
124 150 |
(46) |
56 200 |
43 647 |
45 550 |
(18) |
23 300 |
||||||
| Chemicals | $ |
26 101 |
29 480 |
(34) |
23 800 |
9 046 |
11 880 |
(14) |
8 300 |
||||||
| Contracts | $ |
22 015 |
21 280 |
(23) |
na |
10 202 |
11 130 |
(12) |
na |
||||||
| Fertilisers | $ |
60 429 |
69 430 |
(14) |
53 600 |
20 426 |
22 570 |
(8) |
18 400 |
||||||
| Fodder | $ |
35 014 |
74 060 |
(36) |
19 600 |
11 719 |
29 800 |
(15) |
8 700 |
||||||
| Fuel, oil and grease | $ |
46 908 |
50 980 |
(15) |
45 200 |
18 885 |
20 520 |
(7) |
18 300 |
||||||
| Handling and marketing | $ |
10 020 |
5 450 |
(11) |
18 700 |
4 579 |
2 210 |
(6) |
6 500 |
||||||
| Hired labour | $ |
38 625 |
62 580 |
(15) |
55 500 |
11 104 |
14 920 |
(11) |
12 200 |
||||||
| Interest | $ |
50 509 |
86 360 |
(11) |
80 300 |
23 000 |
36 270 |
(8) |
34 100 |
||||||
| Repairs and maintenance | $ |
58 377 |
71 310 |
(11) |
73 400 |
23 423 |
28 130 |
(6) |
25 400 |
||||||
| Total cash costs | $ |
627 783 |
838 350 |
(18) |
636 300 |
260 060 |
321 780 |
(7) |
254 900 |
||||||
| Farm financial performance | |||||||||||||||
| Farm cash income | $ |
273 452 |
133 180 |
(25) |
156 300 |
63 416 |
45 190 |
(17) |
41 600 |
||||||
| Farm business profit | $ |
157 257 |
– 53 170 |
(72) |
97 200 |
– 4 478 |
– 60 270 |
(14) |
– 32 300 |
||||||
| Rate of return | |||||||||||||||
| – excl. capital appreciation | % |
2.7 |
0.5 |
(62) |
2.4 |
0.7 |
–0.4 |
(49) |
0.2 |
||||||
| – incl. capital appreciation | % |
13.9 |
9.6 |
(23) |
na |
8.8 |
8.1 |
(18) |
na |
||||||
| Note –The figures in parenthesis are relative standard errors expressed as a percentage of the estimate. | |||||||||||||||
| Financial performance by herd size | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Farm business profits deteriorated for producers of all herd sizes in southern Australia (figure g and table 5). On average, small, large and very large beef cattle farms recorded the largest business loss, in real terms, since ABARE started conducting the broadacre survey in 1977-78. In the case of medium sized farms, 2006-07 showed the largest average farm business loss since 1982-83. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2007-08 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| In 2007-08, farm financial performance is projected to recover moderately, with farm incomes projected to be similar to 2006-07. Business profits are expected to recover as southern beef producers rebuild animal numbers. Farm cash receipts are projected to fall on average by 19 per cent because of lower livestock and cropping receipts. Reduced turnoff to rebuild beef cattle numbers is projected to result in the number of cattle sold falling by 22 per cent in 2007-08. Despite higher prices, beef cattle receipts are projected to fall by 17 per cent to average almost $149 000 a farm. Dry winter and early spring conditions resulted in many beef cattle producers reducing the area sown to winter crops in 2007-08 (table 3). Despite increased rainfall in many parts of southern Australia in late spring, grain yields are projected to be below average, but still above 2006-07 levels. Despite prices remaining at historically high levels, reduced sales of grain and hay are projected to result in cropping receipts falling on average by 36 per cent in 2007-08. In 2007-08, farm cash costs are projected to fall on average by 21 per cent as a result of reduced outlays on fodder, crop inputs and livestock purchases. Increased pasture and hay production is projected to reduce reliance on purchased fodder in 2007-08 (a projected 71 per cent fall in fodder purchases). In addition, reduced crop plantings and grain sales are expected to result in purchases of cropping inputs, such as fertilisers, chemicals and fuel, falling in 2007-08, despite significant increases in input prices during the year. At the time of the survey, in November 2007, producers indicated they intended to rebuild cattle numbers by reducing turnoff. Consequently, the value of beef cattle purchases is projected to fall on average by 49 per cent in 2007-08. The recovery in farm financial performance is projected to be the strongest among very large beef cattle producers in southern Australia. There, business profits are expected to average $97 000 a farm in 2007-08 compared with an average loss of $53 000 in 2006-07. While profitability is projected to strengthen among small, medium and large sized beef cattle producers, these farm businesses are expected to continue to make sizable losses in 2007-08 (figure g and table 5). |
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| Beef industry’s ability to recover from drought | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Under the assumption of a return to average seasonal conditions, producers’ ability to increase incomes following recent droughts will be influenced by the combined impact of past investments boosting farm size and productivity and producers’ access to funds to expand crop and livestock production. Producers’ funding options include using farm business cash flows, debt facilities, farm liquid assets and off-farm income sources. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Past investments | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| New investments are an important means of boosting farm productivity and incomes, with productivity growth providing better prospects for farm business viability in the longer term. From the mid-1990s to 2003-04, an historically large proportion of producers acquired land to expand the scale of their farm operations. However, with the exception of very large producers in northern Australia, lower farm incomes in recent years, because of drought and higher land values, have resulted in a fall in the proportion of farms acquiring land, particularly in northern Australia (figure h). During the 2000s, beef cattle producers of all scales of production in northern and southern Australia have undertaken considerable investments in new capital. Although the proportion of producers acquiring land has declined in recent years, average per farm outlays on land purchases has increased, reflecting higher land prices (figures i and j). |
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| Use of farm debt | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Historically high capital investment in the beef industry has been associated with a steady increase in farm business debt in northern and southern Australia (figures k and l). Since 2000-01, average farm business debt has almost tripled to average $827 000 a farm in northern Australia and $496 000 a farm in southern Australia in 2006-07. In the early to mid-2000s, debt for land and machinery increased steadily as producers acquired more land, structures and machinery. However, in recent years, producers have increasingly had to borrow working capital because of drought. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Higher debt and rising interest rates have led to a steady increase in producers’ debt servicing commitments. In 2006-07, the average beef producer in northern and southern Australia used between 11 and 12 per cent of farm cash receipts to service farm debt obligations. In general, very large sized producers have lower debt servicing commitments than smaller counterparts (figure m). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Use of liquid assets | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Over the past decade, producers’ holdings of liquid assets (including farm management deposits) have shown volatility as assets have been liquidated during droughts and rapidly rebuilt in subsequent years (figure n). With the exception of large and very large producers in northern Australia, beef producers have, on average, run down their liquid assets since 2002-03 in order to reduce their dependence on debt to fund capital investments and working capital needs. Large beef producers in northern Australia ran down their liquid assets between 2002-03 and 2005-06, but in 2006-07 many producers used their higher cash flows to rebuild liquid assets. Very large producers also relied heavily on liquid asset reserves in 2002-03 and 2003-04, but since then, improved financial performance has enabled many of these producers to rebuild liquid assets. In 2006-07, very large beef cattle producers in northern Australia held on average $575 000 a farm in liquid assets, 9 per cent more than the average holdings in 2001-02. Overall, liquid assets fell by 39 per cent in southern Australia to average $88 000 a farm in 2006-07 and rose by 7 per cent in northern Australia to average $119 000 a farm. |
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| Capacity to expand production | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| The Australian beef industry is in a strong position to expand production and incomes. The industry’s recent history of capital investments, particularly to acquire more land, will enable producers to expand cattle numbers beyond the levels held prior to the 2002-03 drought once seasonal conditions permit. A return to average seasonal conditions and rising cow numbers is expected to result in a recovery in branding rates and an expansion in calf production. This will enable producers to expand cattle numbers and, at the same time, slowly increase cattle sales in coming years. Despite projections for lower cattle prices, growth in sales is likely to result in producers realising higher incomes and profits. However, in the short term, reduced turnoff of cattle to expand herd numbers is likely to result in lower farm incomes. High capital investments, reduced incomes because of drought, and herd rebuilding have resulted in most beef cattle producers building debt and running down liquid assets in recent years. While this has increased debt servicing commitments, strong growth in land values has maintained producers’ equity levels at around 90 per cent (figure o). This suggests that, while land values remain high, most beef cattle producers have the capacity to supplement farms’ cash flows with some additional working capital debt during the current expansion phase. While this is likely to further increase debt servicing commitments in the short term, the resultant growth in cattle sales and incomes in the longer term should facilitate reducing debt and rebuilding liquid assets. |
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| Productivity in the beef industry | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Total factor productivity growth in Australia’s broadacre and dairy industries is highly variable on a year-to-year basis. Between 1977-78 and 2005-06 broadacre producers’ productivity growth averaged 1.5 per cent a year, with cropping and mixed livestock-cropping farms recording the highest annual growth in productivity (table 6). Productivity growth can be driven by producers generating the same output with fewer inputs, increasing output with the same inputs, or increasing output at faster rate than inputs. Over the past three decades, cropping farms in Australia realised an annual productivity growth rate of 2.3 per cent. This was the result of producers increasing output by 3.7 per cent but increasing inputs by only 1.4 per cent. In contrast, specialist beef cattle farms (farms generating the majority of farm income from producing beef cattle) achieved an annual productivity growth rate of 1.4 per cent, which was obtained mainly from growth in outputs. |
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