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Livestock
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Energy
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Metals
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Zinc
Rohan Kendall
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World zinc prices have declined sharply throughout 2008, falling to a four year low of US$1080 a tonne on the London Metal Exchange in November reflecting weak demand associated with the global financial crisis. The falling zinc price has led to widespread closures of zinc capacity, which may limit further price falls.
Prices to stabilise
A combination of zinc supply growth, following several years of rising prices, and weakening demand triggered by the global financial crisis has caused zinc prices to plummet in 2008. For the year as a whole, prices are forecast to average around US$1880 a tonne, 40 per cent lower than the average for 2007.

The falling zinc price has led to the closure of many zinc operations around the world. Closures announced so far and the likelihood of further closures if the zinc price remains at current levels are expected to slow production growth in 2009. In addition, coordinated efforts by governments around the world to stimulate economic activity should provide some support for zinc consumption in 2009. The forecast of slowing supply growth and a possible pick up in demand in the second half of 2009, mean the potential for further falls in zinc prices could be limited. Zinc prices are forecast to rise gradually in the second half of 2009, relative to current levels, but are still forecast to average lower compared with 2008. Specifically, in 2009, zinc prices are forecast to average US$1300, down a further 31 per cent relative to the 2008 average spot price.
Zinc consumption weak because of global financial crisis

Zinc consumption — approximately 70 per cent of which is consumed in the construction and automotive industries in the form of galvanised (zinc coated) steel or other components such as diecast parts — is forecast to increase by 1.5 per cent to 11.8 million tonnes in 2009 following an estimated rise of 2.5 per cent in 2008. The majority of the forecast increase in world zinc consumption is being driven by rising consumption in developing countries while consumption in OECD economies is likely to decline.

The construction sector is the largest end user of zinc in developed economies through the sector’s use of galvanised steel. Zinc consumption in the United States and Europe is forecast to decline in 2009 because the global financial crisis has significantly reduced construction activity.

Zinc is also widely used in manufacturing industries such as production of household appliances and motor vehicles — there are approximately 10 kilograms of zinc in a car. Production of these products is expected to fall in the United States and western Europe because consumer spending is declining. Increased competition from imports, especially from the emerging economies in Asia and eastern Europe, will also place further downward pressure on US and western European manufacturing activity, which can be expected to reduce zinc demand.

Zinc consumption in developing Asian economies is expected to continue growing in 2009. Underpinning this growth will be increased government spending and significant easing of monetary policy. For example, the Chinese Government announced US$586 billion of spending in November primarily aimed at infrastructure, and earthquake reconstruction in Sichuan province. Zinc consumption in India should also grow solidly because of ongoing investment aimed at improving India’s power generation and transport infrastructure.

Production cuts to slow supply growth
The tumbling zinc price during 2008 has led to many producers worldwide cutting production. World zinc production is forecast to increase by 1 per cent in 2009 to 11.9 million tonnes, compared with an estimated increase of 3 per cent in 2008. With prices expected to remain depressed at least in the first half of 2009, it is likely there will be further production cuts.
However, there have been mine openings in 2008 and further start ups scheduled for 2009, which will contribute to higher production. The largest in terms of production is Xstrata’s Perseverance mine in Canada (115 000 tonnes a year) that commenced production in July 2008. In addition, the Talvivaara mine in Finland (60 000 tonnes a year) opened in October 2008 and the Angus zinc mine in Australia (60 000 tonnes a year) commenced exports in July 2008.

New mine supply in 2009 is expected to come from the start up of Goldcorp’s Penasquito mine in Mexico (189 000 tonnes a year), an expansion of Xstrata’s Mt Isa zinc–lead concentrator (an additional 150 000 tonnes of zinc a year) and the start up of Iberian Mineral’s Aguas Tenidas mine in Spain (44 000 tonnes a year).

There have been several new and expanded zinc refineries contributing to higher world refined zinc production. These include Votorantim’s Cajamarquilla zinc refinery in Peru which increased capacity by 30 000 tonnes a year in late 2007 and is planning to increase capacity by a further 180 000 tonnes over the next two years. Hindustan Zinc also completed a 170 000 tonne expansion of its Chanderiya refinery in India in late 2007 and further expansions are planned.
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Global zinc production cuts
 
2009
operation company country closure/downsize
estimated lost
production ‘000 tonnes
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Lennard Shelf Teck Cominco / Xstrata Australia closure
75
Broken Hill Perilya Australia downsize
50
Golden Grove OZ Minerals Australia downsize
50
Endeavor CBH Resources Australia downsize
40
Mt Garnet Kagara Australia downsize
35
McArthur River Xstrata Australia downsize
32
Hellyer Intec Australia closure
30
Century OZ Minerals Australia downsize
20
Balen smelter Nyrstar Belgium downsize
130
Perkoa AIM Resources Burkina Faso closure
50
Langlois and Myra Breakwater Resources Canada closure
115
Caribou and Restigouche Blue Note Mining Canada closure
55
several zinc smelters Huludao Zinc China downsize
105
several zinc smelters Zhuzhou Smelter Group China downsize
20% of capacity
several zinc smelters Korea Zinc Korea downsize
45
Budel smelter Nyrstar Netherlands downsize
35
Neves-Corvo and Aljustrel Lundin Mining Portugal closure
105
Mid-Tennessee zinc mining complex Strategic Resource Acquisition USA closure
50
Balmat mine and concentrator HudBay Minerals USA closure
30
 
Australian production to decline in 2008–09
Australian zinc mine production is forecast to decline by 9 per cent to 1.43 million tonnes in 2008-09. Seven Australian producers have announced production cuts amounting to more than 300 000 tonnes of zinc. The most recent announcements were Xstrata cutting production at McArthur River by 32 000 tonnes and OZ Minerals’ decision to cut production at Century — the world’s second largest zinc mine — by 20 000 tonnes in 2009.

Partly offsetting the production cuts will be the start up of Terramin’s Angas zinc mine in July 2008 (60 000 tonnes a year) and Xstrata’s expansion of the Mt Isa zinc concentrator (additional capacity of 150 000 tonnes a year) scheduled for completion by the end of 2008. However, these new and expanded operations will take time to reach full capacity.
Australia has the capacity to produce around 500 000 tonnes of refined zinc annually. With no additions scheduled to Australia’s zinc refining capacity, refined zinc production is forecast to remain around 500 000 tonnes in 2008-09.
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Zinc outlook
2007
2008
f
2009
f
% change
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World
Production
kt
11 353
11 743
11 861
 1.0
Consumption
kt
11 342
11 630
11 804
 1.5
Closing stocks
kt
 545
 613
 669
 9.1
– weeks consumption
 2.5
 2.7
 2.9
 7.4
Price
US$/t
3 243
1 878
1 300
– 30.8
USc/lb
 147.1
 85.2
 59.0
– 30.8
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2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
f
Australia
Mine output
kt
1 375
1 571
1 425
– 9.3
Refined output
kt
 496
 507
 500
– 1.4
Exports
– ores and conc.
kt
1 948
2 323
2 153
– 7.3
– refined
kt
 374
 411
 420
 2.2
– total value
A$m
4 298
3 352
2 081
– 37.9
f ABARE forecast.
Australian zinc export earnings to plummet
In 2008-09, a sharp decline in production is expected to lead to a fall in export volumes. Lower export volumes combined with lower average zinc prices are forecast to result in export earnings declining by 38 per cent to $2.1 billion.
ZINC 2