abare.gov.au - Australian crop report

Overview

Widespread rainfall in the first week of September arrived just in time for many crops. However, because of a lack of subsoil moisture in many areas, further spring rainfall will be critical to secure forecast production levels.

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology in its latest seasonal rainfall outlook (26 August 2008) for the September to November period indicates there is no strong swing in the odds toward either above or below average spring rainfall over most of Australia. However, the odds favour a wetter than average spring in south-west Western Australia, while a drier than average spring is forecast for some parts of central and southern South Australia.

The dry winter conditions have resulted in a downward revision of forecast winter crop production, as yield potential across the majority of the cropping belt has declined. Total winter crop production in 2008-09 is forecast to reach 35 million tonnes. This is a downward revision of around 2 million tonnes from ABARE’s June forecast. However, the forecast is a 57 per cent increase from the drought affected 2007-08 crop. The total area sown to winter crops in 2008-09 is estimated to have increased by 7 per cent to slightly less than 22 million hectares.

Of the major winter crops, wheat production is forecast to be around 22.5 million tonnes in 2008-09. This is a downward revision of around 1.2 million tonnes from the June 2008 forecast, but well above the 13 million tonnes harvested in 2007-08. Barley production in 2008-09 is forecast to reach around 7.8 million tonnes. Although this is a significant increase from the 2007-08 production level, it is below initial estimates. Canola production is forecast at 1.6 million tonnes, a 55 per cent increase from last season. The area sown to canola is estimated to have increased by 15 per cent in 2008-09, reflecting the good start to the season in Western Australia.

Total summer crop area is forecast to increase by 6 per cent to 1.1 million hectares in 2008-09. Despite rainfall in parts of northern New South Wales and southern Queensland recharging soil moisture profiles, availability of irrigation water remains a critical issue for cotton and rice production.

Rainfall

The Bureau of Meteorology map of winter rainfall (June-August 2008) illustrates significant areas of the grains belt received average to below average winter rainfall. The exception was Queensland, where average to above average rainfall was received.

Details of rainfall received in the April–August growing period are provided in table A.
The Australian Bureau of Meteorology in its latest seasonal rainfall outlook (26 August 2008) for the September to November period indicates there is no strong swing in the odds toward either above or below average spring rainfall over most of Australia. However, the odds favour a wetter than average spring in south-west Western Australia, while a drier than average spring is forecast for some parts of central and southern South Australia.

The chances of exceeding median rainfall for spring are between 60 per cent and 75 per cent in south-west Western Australia. In contrast, the chances of exceeding the spring median are between 35 per cent and 40 per cent across central and southern South Australia.

The national outlook for maximum temperatures over spring shows a moderate to strong shift in the odds toward warmer than normal conditions in parts of southern Australia. The chances are between 60 per cent and 65 per cent for above average maximum temperatures in south-west Western Australia, south-east South Australia and western and central Victoria. The chances of a warmer than average spring are between 50 per cent and 60 per cent across the rest of the country.

Spring minimum temperatures are also forecast to be warmer than average across most of the country, with the exception of Queensland’s southern half and the north-east half of New South Wales. The chances of increased overnight temperatures are between 60 per cent and 80 per cent over most of Australia.

A number of organisations provide forecast yields for grains, including wheat and sorghum. The shire scale wheat forecasting system of the Queensland Department of Primary Industries and Fisheries combines starting soil moisture conditions with the seasonal outlook, including the most recent trend in the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). The probability at the beginning of September of exceeding average wheat yields is highly variable across Australia (map 2). The chance of exceeding long-term median yields (map 3) ranges from a less than 10 per cent chance, up to 100 per cent in all states. However, most major grain growing areas are in the lower end of the range.

A	April – August rainfall in major grain growing regions

average a

2006

2007

2008

2006

2007

2008

% of

average

Queensland

Central Highlands (35)

145

142

162

121

111

Maranoa (43)

156

133

106

West Darling Downs (42)

162

157

124

East Darling Downs (41)

192

101

181

119

Moreton South Coast (40)

333

159

290

258

New South Wales

North West Plains (W) (52)

168

133

157

123

North West Plains (E) (53)

195

146

191

131

North West Slopes (N) (54)

208

155

221

130

106

North West Slopes (S) (55)

221

171

262

180

118

Northern Tablelands (N) (56)

239

184

272

174

114

Central West Plains (S) (50)

185

116

174

116

Central West Plains (N) (51)

175

117

144

107

Central West Slopes (N) (64)

224

161

255

153

114

Central West Slopes (S) (65)

235

118

232

157

Central Tablelands (N) (62)

235

151

337

176

143

Central Tablelands (S) (63)

332

149

346

203

104

Riverina (W) (75)

155

108

133

Riverina (E) (74)

208

117

163

128

South West Slopes (N) (73)

259

137

229

180

South West Slopes (S) (72)

386

203

312

275

Southern Tablelands (GM)(70)

255

196

299

160

117

Victoria

North Mallee (76)

139

154

114

111

South Mallee (77)

163

109

168

132

103

North Wimmera (78)

198

120

188

154

South Wimmera (79)

257

167

263

208

102

Lower North (80)

198

127

166

133

Upper North (81)

243

151

223

177

Lower North East (82)

391

221

359

299

Upper North East (83)

548

296

445

333

North Central (88)

354

225

307

254

Central Western (89)

295

210

305

238

103

South Australia

Upper South East (25B)

223

127

216

203

Murray Mallee (25A)

146

100

141

121

Murray River (24)

160

119

145

150

East Central (23)

339

209

301

299

West Central (22)

251

185

279

256

111

102

Lower North (21)

228

131

173

203

Upper North (19)

158

121

Western (18)

187

124

117

116

Western Australia

North Coast (8)

277

118

146

227

Central Coast (9)

610

284

430

459

Northern Central (10)

232

128

158

204

South Coast (9A)

603

352

459

473

South Central (10A)

272

178

218

248

South East (12)

130

Tasmania

Northern (91)

523

431

534

436

102

Midlands (93)

228

163

199

150

a Average from 1913 to 2007.

Winter crop production

With the exception of Queensland, the majority of Australia’s winter cropping regions received average to below average winter rainfall, with August being a particularly dry month. The lack of winter rainfall meant crops in many areas were suffering moisture stress as they headed into the critical spring growth phase. Widespread rainfall in the first week of September arrived just in time for many crops. However, because of a lack of subsoil moisture in many areas, further spring rainfall will be critical to secure forecast production levels.

Winter crop production in 2008-09 is forecast to increase by around 57 per cent compared with 2007-08, totalling slightly more than 35 million tonnes (table B). However, this forecast is a downward revision of almost 2 million tonnes from ABARE’s June 2008 forecast. The area planted to winter grains in 2008-09 is estimated to have increased by 7 per cent, to just less than 22 million hectares (table C).

Of the major winter crops, wheat production is forecast to increase by around 72 per cent to 22.5 million tonnes in 2008-09. However, this is a downward revision of around 1.2 million tonnes from earlier forecasts, reflecting below average winter rainfall. Barley production in 2008-09 is forecast to reach around 7.8 million tonnes. Although this is a significant increase from 2007-08 production it is below initial estimates. Canola production is forecast to be around 1.6 million tonnes in 2008-09, 55 per cent more than last season.

Summer crop production

The total summer crop area is forecast to increase by 6 per cent to 1.1 million hectares in 2008-09 (table D). Despite rainfall in parts of northern New South Wales and southern Queensland recharging soil moisture profiles, availability of irrigation water remains a critical issue for cotton and rice production. Total summer crop production is forecast to fall by 18 per cent to around 3 million tonnes in 2008-09, reflecting a forecast decline in grain sorghum production.

The irrigation water situation in the major cotton growing regions in Australia in 2008-09 is likely to be better than in 2007-08. Australian cotton plantings in 2008-09 are forecast to more than double, to around 141 000 hectares. Around 123 000 hectares of these plantings are forecast to be irrigated, with the remaining areas planted with dryland cotton. Assuming an improvement in yields, cotton lint production in 2008-09 is forecast to be 272 000 tonnes, double the drought affected harvest of 2007-08.

With a continued lack of availability of irrigation water for rice growing, the area planted to rice in 2008-09 is forecast to remain well below historical averages, at around 5000 hectares.

The total area planted to grain sorghum is forecast to be 767 000 hectares in 2008-09, a 4 per cent decline from the area sown last year. There is likely to be less fallow land available for summer cropping in southern Queensland and northern New South Wales as a result of the increased area currently sown to winter crops. Assuming a return to average yields from the records achieved in the 2007-08 season, grain sorghum production in 2008-09 is forecast to decline to slightly less than 2 million tonnes.

B	Winter crop production - Australia a

New
South
Wales

Victoria

Queensland

Western
Australia

South
Australia

Australia

1996-97

11 285

4 599

2 469

11 192

5 458

35 071

1997-98

8 558

3 398

1 637

12 097

5 360

31 116

1998-99

9 718

3 495

2 322

12 232

6 305

34 159

1999-00

11 495

5 139

2 222

13 311

4 751

36 981

2000-01

10 834

6 232

1 340

8 726

7 486

34 696

2001-02

11 171

5 873

1 142

12 050

8 927

39 240

2002-03

3 505

1 955

836

6 812

4 227

17 402

2003-04

10 768

6 945

1 473

16 683

7 450

43 395

2004-05

10 724

4 203

1 384

12 472

5 849

34 711

2005-06

11 867

6 170

1 426

13 922

7 518

40 985

2006-07

3 879

1 823

907

8 259

2 811

17 613

2007-08 s

3 067

3 790

1 159

9 668

4 858

22 524

2008-09 previous

10 451

5 504

1 822

12 095

6 567

37 136

2008-09 f

9 229

5 118

1 748

12 302

6 400

35 373

% change 2007-08
to 2008-09

201

a State production include wheat, barley, oats, canola, lupins, field peas, chickpeas, faba beans and lentils. Australian totals also include triticale, linseed and safflowerseed. f ABARE forecast. s ABARE estimate.
Note: Previous refers to the numbers published in the previous issue of the Australian Crop Report.

C	Winter crop area - Australia a

New
South
Wales

Victoria

Queensland

Western
Australia

South
Australia

Australia

000 ha

1996-97

4 676

2 331

1 225

6 793

3 048

18 102

1997-98

4 543

2 315

1 213

7 141

3 047

18 260

1998-99

4 927

2 454

1 420

7 419

3 376

19 582

1999-00

4 955

2 670

1 337

7 464

3 342

19 763

2000-01

5 398

2 706

1 126

7 390

3 667

20 280

2001-02

5 309

2 684

788

7 173

3 866

19 783

2002-03

4 782

2 928

774

7 174

3 965

19 623

2003-04

6 070

3 126

1 067

7 689

4 034

21 982

2004-05

6 456

3 131

878

7 936

4 019

22 444

2005-06

5 556

2 907

967

7 390

3 882

20 728

2006-07

5 603

3 041

792

6 471

4 141

20 117

2007-08 s

6 115

3 212

747

6 255

4 073

20 431

2008-09 previous

6 100

3 288

1 174

7 681

4 068

22 344

2008-09 f

5 982

3 225

1 203

7 401

4 000

21 824

% change 2007-08
to 2008-09

-2

a State areas include wheat, barley, oats, canola, lupins, field peas, chickpeas, faba beans and lentils. Australian totals also include triticale, linseed and safflower. f ABARE forecast. s ABARE estimate.
Note: Previous refers to the numbers published in the previous issue of the Australian Crop Report.

D	Summer crop plantings and production - Australia a

New South Wales

Queensland

Australia

' 000 ha

1995-96

576

2 055

802

1 488

1 448

3 623

1996-97

655

2 774

689

1 485

1 431

4 374

1997-98

617

2 588

640

1 139

1 335

3 823

1998-99

885

3 228

721

1 712

1 741

5 097

1999-00

742

2 882

771

2 031

1 591

5 025

2000-01

825

3 366

816

1 786

1 761

5 286

2001-02

777

3 146

794

1 772

1 633

4 933

2002-03

509

1 582

521

1 199

1 097

2 868

2003-04

436

1 766

708

1 806

1 211

3 679

2004-05

493

1 984

773

1 788

1 340

3 887

2005-06

760

2 765

615

1 512

1 442

4 405

2006-07

332

1 036

520

1 079

912

2 184

2007-08

349

1 446

640

2 050

1 063

3 599

2008-09 s

380

1 252

669

1 611

1 122

2 957

% change 2007-08 to 2008-09

-13

-21

-18

a State production includes sorghum, rice, cottonseed, maize and sunflowers. Australian production also includes soybeans, peanuts, mung beans and navy beans. f ABARE forecast. s ABARE estimate.