 The majority of New South Wales winter cropping regions received below average autumn rainfall. This meant many winter crops were dry sown or not sown during the optimal planting window, as growers waited for rain. Widespread rainfall in early June provided the moisture for the completion of intended cropping programs. However, below average winter rainfall in southern and central New South Wales will result in yield penalties, particularly for later sown crops.
Widespread rainfall in the first week of September arrived just in time for many moisture stressed crops. However, lack of subsoil moisture, particularly in the southern and central regions, means further spring rainfall will be critical for crops to reach production forecasts. Areas of north-east New South Wales, particularly the northern areas of the Liverpool Plains have enjoyed near ideal growing conditions to date, which should result in above average yields. Conversely, pockets of western and southern New South Wales are in poor condition with some crops already being bailed or sprayed out. Widespread reports of stripe rust in southern and central areas may place further pressure on yields. Many growers are spraying to try to minimise the impact.
The area planted to wheat in New South Wales in 2008-09 is estimated to have fallen marginally to just less than 4 million hectares. Below average winter rainfall across the majority of the central and southern regions has reduced yield potential. Wheat production is forecast at 6.6 million tonnes in 2008-09, which despite being a downward revision from June, is still a significant increase from last year’s drought affected crop.
Barley production is forecast to increase to just more than 1.5 million tonnes in 2008-09, a significant increase from the 650 000 tonnes produced in the previous season, reflecting an improvement in yields. The area planted to barley in 2008-09 is estimated to have decreased by 3 per cent to less than 1 million hectares.
The area planted to canola is estimated to have fallen by 12 per cent in 2008-09, to 212 000 hectares, reflecting the late start to the season in the southern and central regions of New South Wales. Assuming an improvement in yields from last year’s drought affected crop, canola production is forecast at just less than 300 000 tonnes. Although this is a significant increase from the 44 000 tonnes harvested in 2007-08, it is a downward revision of around 40 000 tonnes from the June 2008 forecast.
The area planted to grain sorghum is forecast to decrease by 2 per cent in 2008-09 to 245 000 hectares, reflecting a reduction in the availability of fallow land. Assuming yields return to longer term averages from the records achieved in 2007-08, production is forecast to decline by around 28 per cent to 761 000 tonnes.
With a continued lack of irrigation water for rice growing, the area planted to rice in 2008-09 is forecast to remain very small at around 5000 hectares. Assuming average yields, production is forecast to be 44 000 tonnes, well below the five year average of 499 000 tonnes.
Shortages of irrigation water in the cotton growing regions in 2008-09 are likely to be more severe in New South Wales than in Queensland. Nevertheless, New South Wales plantings of cotton in 2008-09 are forecast to increase by 68 per cent to 69 000 hectares, around 90 per cent of which is likely to be grown as irrigated cotton. Assuming average yields, New South Wales is forecast to produce 143 000 tonnes of cotton lint and 203 000 tonnes of cottonseed in 2008-09. |
