 The 2008 cropping season in Victoria remains in the balance. Rainfall in July was close to average, and while August rainfall was somewhat below average, it was timely. Lower than average temperatures throughout August also helped to limit moisture stress. Generally overcast conditions throughout much of August resulted in a low incidence of frost. Good rainfall over the last weekend of August has given crops a much-needed boost going into spring. However, there is little subsoil moisture, and at least average rainfall through September and October will be needed to maintain average yields.
In the Wimmera, crops are looking good, with average yields the most likely outcome at this stage. In the Mallee, there are some big differences across soil types, with crops on light soils generally looking better than those on heavier soils. Other cropping regions remain in good shape at this stage. Stripe rust was sprayed in most major cropping areas in August and further control may be required depending on conditions during spring.
The area sown to winter crops in 2008-09 is estimated to have remained relatively unchanged at 3.2 million hectares, reflecting high grain prices and expectations of some improvement in seasonal conditions. Total winter crop production for Victoria is forecast to increase to around 5.1 million tonnes, a 35 per cent increase from the drought-affected 2007-08 crop.
In 2008-09 the area planted to wheat in Victoria is estimated to have increased by 5 per cent relative to 2007-08, to 1.6 million hectares. This mainly reflects the high price of wheat during 2007-08, and expected relatively high prices for the year ahead. Wheat production in 2008-09 is forecast to be around 2.7 million tonnes, an increase of 44 per cent from production in 2007-08.
The area planted to barley in Victoria is estimated to have increased by 3 per cent in 2008-09, to 950 000 hectares. Assuming an improvement in yields from last year’s drought affected crop, production is forecast to increase by 42 per cent to 1.6 million tonnes in 2008-09.
Reflecting the relatively late start to the planting season across much of Victoria, canola plantings are estimated to have declined by 20 per cent in 2008-09 to 215 000 hectares. Despite this estimated decline in area, production is forecast to increase by 72 per cent to 344 000 tonnes, assuming average yields. |
