abare.gov.au - australian crop report

overview

In October and November 2007, average to above average rainfall throughout the major summer grain growing regions of northern New South Wales and Queensland encouraged a large area to be sown to summer crops, particularly grain sorghum. The total summer crop area in 2007-08 is estimated to have increased by around 11 per cent to just over 1 million hectares. However, a lack of irrigation water has severely constrained the area planted to cotton and rice in 2007-08.

Above average rainfall in January 2008 and favourable rainfall in early February throughout Queensland and northern New South Wales have improved prospects for summer crops. Total summer crop production is forecast to increase by nearly 40 per cent to 3.2 million tonnes in 2007-08.

The area planted to grain sorghum is estimated to be around 800 000 hectares in 2007-08, an increase of 26 per cent compared with the previous year. Average to above average rainfall in key growing regions allowed for the larger area to be planted. Favourable rainfall in January and early February has improved yield prospects, and yields are expected to be above average. Total grain sorghum production is forecast to be 2.45 million tonnes, nearly 80 per cent greater than the year before.

The lack of irrigation water for rice growing in 2007-08 has resulted in the area planted to rice being the smallest area planted since the industry began in the early 1920s. It is estimated to be only 2000 hectares, 90 per cent below the area planted in the previous year. Rice production in 2007-08 is forecast to be 18 000 tonnes, about 90 per cent lower than the 2006-07 harvest.

The area sown to cotton is also estimated to have declined significantly — by 56 per cent to 63 000 hectares in 2007-08, the lowest area sown to cotton since 1982-83. Cotton lint and cottonseed production are both forecast to fall by 58 per cent.

The start to the 2007-08 winter cropping season was generally favourable across southern Western Australia, South Australia, Victoria, New South Wales and central Queensland. However, dry conditions throughout the growing season reduced crop prospects. Total winter grains production is estimated to have been 22.6 million tonnes, 30 per cent higher than the 2006-07 drought reduced harvest, but well below the five year average of 35 million tonnes.

Of the major winter grains, wheat production is estimated to have been around 13.1 million tonnes, barley production 5.9 million tonnes and canola production almost 1.1 million tonnes. Although these production levels are significantly higher than production in 2006-07, they are well below average.

rainfall

Summer cropping regions in northern New South Wales and southern Queensland received average to above average rainfall over the months November 2007 to January 2008, improving the outlook for summer crops. Details of rainfall received in the October 2007 to January 2008 period for the major cropping areas in Australia are provided in table 4. Rainfall received over the November–January period is shown in map 1.

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology in its latest (24 January 2008) seasonal rainfall outlook for the late summer to mid autumn period (February–April) indicates that there is a moderate to strong chance of exceeding median rainfall in western Western Australia (click here for map). For the rest of the country, there is no strong swing in odds toward below or above median rainfall.

In its latest temperature outlook (24 January 2008), the Bureau of Meteorology announced that there was no strong swing in the odds toward higher than average temperatures across Australia (click here for map). However, there is an increased chance of warmer nights in the south west and north east parts of the country.

summer crop production

Total summer crop area in 2007-08 is estimated at 1.05 million hectares, an 11 per cent increase from the previous year (table a). Average to above average rainfall since October 2007 in northern New South Wales and southern Queensland has prompted a large area to be sown to grain sorghum and has improved yield prospects. However, a lack of irrigation water (table b) at the time of planting means a relatively small area was planted to rice and cotton for the 2007-08 season.

The lack of irrigation water for rice growing in 2007-08 means that the area planted to rice is estimated to be only 2000 hectares. Of the rice that has been planted, yields are expected to be above average at 9 tonnes per hectare. Total rice production is forecast to be 18 000 tonnes in 2007-08, compared with 161 000 tonnes in 2006-07. The area sown to cotton is estimated to have declined by 56 per cent to 63 000 hectares in 2007-08. Cotton lint and cottonseed production are forecast to be 116 000 and 164 000 tonnes respectively in 2007-08, 58 per cent below production in the previous year.

The area planted to grain sorghum is estimated to have increased by 26 per cent to 800 000 hectares in 2007-08, one of the largest areas on record. In northern New South Wales and southern and central Queensland, summer rainfall has been above average. This rainfall has been extremely beneficial for early sown grain sorghum crops and has also allowed for some late grain sorghum crops to be sown. Despite floods around Emerald damaging some of central Queensland’s grain sorghum crop, the increased yield potential in southern Queensland grain sorghum growing regions will more than outweigh these losses. Grain sorghum yields are expected to be above average in both New South Wales and Queensland. As a result, total grain sorghum production is forecast to be a record 2.45 million tonnes in 2007-08.

a	australian summer crop plantings and production a

new south wales

queensland

australia

‘000 ha

1995-96

576

2 055

802

1 488

1 448

3 623

1996-97

655

2 774

689

1 485

1 431

4 374

1997-98

617

2 588

640

1 139

1 335

3 823

1998-99

885

3 228

721

1 712

1 741

5 097

1999-00

742

2 882

771

2 031

1 591

5 025

2000-01

825

3 366

816

1 786

1 761

5 286

2001-02

777

3 146

794

1 772

1 633

4 933

2002-03

509

1 582

521

1 199

1 097

2 868

2003-04

436

1 766

708

1 806

1 211

3 679

2004-05

493

1 984

773

1 788

1 340

3 887

2005-06

760

2 765

615

1 512

1 455

4 406

2006-07 s

346

1 064

532

1 134

946

2 300

2007-08 f

338

1 345

633

1 736

1 046

3 193

% change 2006-07 to 2007-08

–2

a State production includes sorghum, rice, cottonseed, maize and sunflowers. Australian production also includes soybeans, peanuts, mung beans and navy beans. s ABARE estimate. f ABARE forecast.

A number of organisations provide forecasts of yields for grains, including wheat and sorghum. The Queensland Department of Primary Industries’ Agricultural Production Systems Research Unit (APSRU) has mapped long term sorghum yields (map 2) and provides estimates of the probability of exceeding average yields based on soil moisture conditions, rainfall and the seasonal outlook (map 3). This information provides background to the development of ABARE’s summer crop forecasts.
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The outlook at the beginning of February (map 3) reveals that the probability of yields exceeding the long term median across most of the grain sorghum growing regions of Queensland and New South Wales is above average. Across most of Queensland and New South Wales the chances are 0–40 per cent (coloured grey and green).

winter crop production

The majority of winter cropping areas in southern Western Australia, South Australia, Victoria, New South Wales and central Queensland had an excellent start to the 2007-08 winter cropping season. However, dry conditions over the remainder of the growing period in most major cropping areas of northern Western Australia, South Australia, New South Wales and Victoria meant that winter crop production was significantly lower than expectations in mid-2007. Total winter grains production is estimated at 22.6 million tonnes (table c). Although this is a 30 per cent increase from 2006-07, it is still well below the five year average of around 35 million tonnes.

Winter crop production increased in all states, except New South Wales. In Western Australia, winter grains production increased by 22 per cent, in South Australia by 77 per cent, Victoria by 112 per cent and Queensland by 36 per cent. The severe drought in New South Wales resulted in production declining by 24 per cent.

Of the major winter grains, wheat production is estimated to have been around 13.1 million tonnes in 2007-08, a 23 per cent increase from 2006-07 but 39 per cent below the five year average. Barley production in 2007-08 is estimated to have been 5.9 million tonnes, 42 per cent above the previous year but 26 per cent below the five year average. Canola production is estimated to have doubled that harvested in 2006-07 to be around 1.1 million tonnes. However, this is still 27 per cent below the five year average.

c	australian winter crop production a

new south
wales

western
australia

south
australia

victoria

queensland

australia

1995-96

6 962

4 501

746

10 244

5 263

27 785

1996-97

11 285

4 599

2 469

11 192

5 458

35 071

1997-98

8 558

3 398

1 637

12 097

5 360

31 116

1998-99

9 718

3 495

2 322

12 232

6 305

34 159

1999-00

11 495

5 139

2 222

13 311

4 751

36 981

2000-01

10 834

6 232

1 340

8 726

7 486

34 696

2001-02

11 171

5 873

1 142

12 050

8 927

39 240

2002-03

3 505

1 955

836

6 812

4 227

17 402

2003-04

10 766

6 941

1 472

16 682

7 450

43 386

2004-05

10 724

4 203

1 384

12 472

5 849

34 711

2005-06

11 898

6 097

1 421

13 917

7 491

40 908

2006-07 s

4 013

1 793

855

7 906

2 789

17 393

2007-08 f

3 067

3 793

1 159

9 669

4 939

22 609

% change 2006-07

to 2007-08

-24

112

a Includes wheat, barley, oats, canola, lupins, field peas, chickpea, faba beans and lentils. Australian totals also include triticale, linseed, safflower and vetch. s ABARE estimate. f ABARE forecast.