page title
spacer
spacer
Overview
spacer With the exception of Western Australia, the majority of Australia’s winter cropping regions received below average autumn rainfall. The lack of autumn rainfall meant many winter crops were dry sown or not sown during the optimal planting window as growers waited for rain. Widespread rainfall in early June in the eastern states provided the moisture for growers to complete intended cropping programs.

spacer The Australian Bureau of Meteorology in its latest seasonal rainfall outlook (27 May 2008) for the June to August period indicates an increase in the odds toward above average rainfall across most of Queensland and northern New South Wales, with the chance of exceeding average rainfall being between 60 to 70 per cent. In contrast, the Bureau is forecasting below average rainfall for south-west Western Australia, which has only a 30 to 40 per cent chance of exceeding average rainfall. However, the Bureau has advised that because of technical issues, its current confidence in the outlook assessment for Western Australia is low. Across southern New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia, the chance of accumulating at least average rainfall in the June to August period is close to 50 per cent.

spacer If this rainfall outlook is realised, it is likely to have a negative impact on yields in Western Australia. Conversely the impact on yields in Queensland and northern New South Wales is likely to be positive.

spacer The total area sown to winter crops in Australia is forecast to increase by 9 per cent to 22.3 million hectares in 2008-09. Total winter crop production in 2008-09 is forecast to reach 37.1 million tonnes, a 65 per cent increase on the drought affected 2007-08 season.

spacer Of the major winter crops, the area sown to wheat is forecast to rise by 13 per cent to a record 14 million hectares, reflecting relatively high world wheat prices and the attractiveness of cropping to improve short-term cash flow. Assuming an improvement in yields from the 2007-08 season, total wheat production is forecast to reach around 23.7 million tonnes in 2008-09, an increase of 82 per cent. The area sown to barley is forecast to increase only marginally from the previous season, to around 4.5 million hectares in 2008-09. The canola area sown is forecast to increase by around 16 per cent to 1.2 million hectares, reflecting a significant increase in Western Australia. Barley and canola production are forecast to increase to 7.9 million tonnes and 1.7 million tonnes, respectively.

spacer Total summer crop production in 2007-08 is estimated to have increased by 59 per cent to around 3.5 million tonnes. Favourable sowing conditions and timely rainfall throughout the season has resulted in an estimated grain sorghum crop of around 2.7 million tonnes, double the previous year’s harvest. However, a lack of irrigation water severely constrained the area planted to both rice and cotton in 2007-08. Rice production is estimated to have declined by around 88 per cent, to just 19 000 tonnes in 2007-08. Cottonseed and cotton lint production are estimated to have fallen by 54 per cent in 2007-08 to 178 000 and 126 000 tonnes, respectively.
Rainfall
Map 1 illustrates the rainfall deficiencies throughout Queensland, New South Wales, Victoria and parts of South Australia for the March to May 2008 period. The majority of grain growing regions in Western Australia received average to above average rainfall. Rainfall in May 2008 was generally below average across the Australian grains belt. Detail of rainfall received in this period is provided in table A.

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology in its latest seasonal rainfall outlook (27 May 2008) for the winter period indicates an increase in the odds toward above average rainfall across most of Queensland and northern New South Wales, with the chance of exceeding average rainfall being between 60 to 70 per cent. In contrast, the Bureau is forecasting below average rainfall for south-west Western Australia which has only a 30-40 per cent chance of exceeding average rainfall for the season. However, the Bureau has advised that because of technical issues, its current confidence in the outlook assessment for Western Australia is low. Across southern New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia, the chance of accumulating at least average rainfall in the June to August period is relatively close to 50 per cent. (click here for map).

The national outlook for maximum and minimum temperatures averaged over the winter season, June to August 2008, shows a moderate to strong shift in the odds toward warmer than normal conditions in the south-west corner of Western Australia. Over the rest of the country the chance of exceeding average temperatures is close to 50 per cent. (click here for map).

A number of organisations provide forecast yields for grains, including wheat and sorghum. The shire scale wheat forecasting system of the Queensland Department of Primary Industries and Fisheries combines starting soil moisture conditions with the seasonal outlook, including the most recent trend in the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). The probability of exceeding average wheat yields at the beginning of June, before the recent rainfall, is highly variable across Australia (map 2). In Queensland the chance of exceeding long term median yields is less than 40 per cent across most of the state (coloured yellow and orange). In New South Wales the chances of exceeding the long-term median yields vary throughout the state from less than 10 per cent to around 50 per cent. Throughout Victoria the chances of exceeding long-term median yields vary between 10 and 80 per cent, with the majority of areas in the lower end of the range. South Australia is also highly variable, with the chances of exceeding median yields between 10 and 70 per cent. Western Australia’s chance of exceeding long-term median yields is the most variable, between 10 and 100 per cent. The major grain growing areas in Western Australia are in the lower end of the range.
Map 0
Map 0
map 1
A March - May rainfall in major grain growing regions
spacer
average a
2006
2007
2008
2006
2007
2008
spacer
mm
mm
mm
mm
% of
% of
% of
average
average
average
spacer
Queensland
Central Highlands (35)
129
120
48
21
93
37
16
Maranoa (43)
116
79
45
13
68
39
11
West Darling Downs (42)
119
55
64
17
46
54
14
East Darling Downs (41)
140
55
64
31
39
46
22
Moreton South Coast (40)
306
107
109
79
35
36
26
spacer
New South Wales
North West Plains (W) (52)
114
59
103
28
52
91
25
North West Plains (E) (53)
127
53
115
30
42
90
24
North West Slopes (N) (54)
135
61
135
20
45
100
15
North West Slopes (S) (55)
129
71
161
31
55
125
24
Northern Tablelands (N) (56)
152
101
174
50
67
115
33
Central West Plains (S) (50)
113
28
110
45
25
97
40
Central  West Plains (N) (51)
112
38
106
38
34
94
34
Central West Slopes (N) (64)
139
65
152
38
47
110
27
Central West Slopes (S) (65)
137
29
135
48
21
99
35
Central Tablelands (N) (62)
142
64
162
46
45
114
33
Central Tablelands (S) (63)
210
42
173
81
20
82
39
Riverina (W) (75)
89
34
101
31
38
114
35
Riverina (E) (74)
110
43
113
33
39
103
30
South West Slopes (N) (73)
139
34
146
72
25
105
52
South West Slopes (S) (72)
182
99
205
83
54
113
46
Southern Tablelands (GM)(70)
155
67
126
65
43
81
42
spacer
Victoria
North Mallee (76)
68
59
120
17
86
175
25
South Mallee (77)
80
64
124
20
80
155
25
North Wimmera (78)
88
71
133
22
81
151
25
South Wimmera (79)
110
92
161
36
83
146
33
Lower North (80)
99
62
124
20
63
125
20
Upper North (81)
118
72
154
34
61
130
29
Lower North East (82)
175
120
217
71
69
124
41
Upper North East (83)
240
172
247
74
72
103
31
North Central (88)
161
125
184
43
78
114
27
Central Western (89)
140
116
150
42
83
107
30
spacer
South Australia
Upper South East (25B)
95
93
123
28
98
130
30
Murray Mallee (25A)
66
77
110
14
116
166
21
Murray River (24)
72
87
113
20
121
157
28
East Central (23)
135
136
185
55
101
137
41
West Central (22)
97
114
178
44
118
184
45
Lower North (21)
91
109
142
37
119
155
40
Upper North (19)
68
51
85
17
75
126
25
Western (18)
73
71
118
23
97
161
31
spacer
Western Australia
North Coast (8)
95
42
28
66
44
29
69
Central Coast (9)
171
60
110
91
35
64
53
Northern Central (10)
90
75
50
58
84
56
65
South Coast (9A)
197
121
162
113
61
82
57
South Central (10A)
101
72
70
69
71
69
68
South East (12)
78
95
55
20
122
71
26
spacer
Tasmania
Northern (91)
226
249
310
120
110
137
53
Midlands (93)
126
127
132
58
101
105
46
spacer
a Average from 1913 to 2008.
Winter crop production
With the exception of Western Australia, the majority of Australia’s winter cropping regions received below average autumn rainfall. This meant many winter crops were dry sown or not sown during the optimal planting window, as growers waited for rain. Widespread rainfall in early June provided the moisture for the completion of intended cropping programs.

The total area planted to winter grains is forecast to rise by around 9 per cent to 22.3 million hectares (table B). Assuming an improvement in yields in 2008-09, total winter crop production is forecast to reach 37.1 million tonnes, a 65 per cent increase in production from last year’s drought affected crop (table C). The forecast rise in production reflects larger areas of planting in most states, combined with improved yields.

Of the major winter grains, wheat production in 2008-09 is forecast to rise to 23.7 million tonnes, an 82 per cent increase from the previous season. Barley production is forecast to increase to around 8 million tonnes in 2008-09, a 34 per cent increase on the 2007-08 harvest. Canola production is forecast to be 1.7 million tonnes, 56 per cent more than 2007-08 production.
Map 2
map 3

B Winter crop area - Australia  a
spacer
New South Wales
Victoria
Queensland
Western Australia
Australia
Australia
spacer
‘000 ha
‘000 ha
‘000 ha
‘000 ha
‘000 ha
‘000 ha
spacer
1996-97
4 676
2 331
1 225
6 793
3 048
18 102
1997-98
4 543
2 315
1 213
7 141
3 047
18 260
1998-99
4 927
2 454
1 420
7 419
3 376
19 582
1999-00
4 955
2 670
1 337
7 464
3 342
19 763
2000-01
5 398
2 706
1 126
7 390
3 667
20 280
2001-02
5 309
2 684
788
7 173
3 866
19 783
2002-03
4 782
2 928
774
7 174
3 965
19 623
2003-04
6 070
3 126
1 067
7 689
4 034
21 982
2004-05
6 456
3 131
878
7 936
4 019
22 444
2005-06
5 556
2 907
967
7 390
3 882
20 728
2006-07
5 603
3 041
792
6 471
4 141
20 117
2007-08 s
6 115
3 212
747
6 255
4 073
20 431
2008-09 f
6 100
3 288
1 174
7 681
4 068
22 344
spacer
% change 2007-08
to 2008-09
0
2
57
23
0
9
spacer
a State areas include wheat, barley, oats, canola, lupins, field peas, chickpeas, faba beans and lentils. Australian totals also include triticale, linseed and safflower.  f ABARE forecast. s ABARE estimate.
C Winter crop production - Australia a
spacer
New South Wales
Victoria
Queensland
Western Australia
South Australia
Australia
spacer
Kt
Kt
Kt
Kt
Kt
Kt
spacer
1996-97
11 285
4 599
2 469
11 192
5 458
35 071
1997-98
8 558
3 398
1 637
12 097
5 360
31 116
1998-99
9 718
3 495
2 322
12 232
6 305
34 159
1999-00
11 495
5 139
2 222
13 311
4 751
36 981
2000-01
10 834
6 232
1 340
8 726
7 486
34 696
2001-02
11 171
5 873
1 142
12 050
8 927
39 240
2002-03
3 505
1 955
836
6 812
4 227
17 402
2003-04
10 766
6 941
1 472
16 682
7 450
43 386
2004-05
10 724
4 203
1 384
12 472
5 849
34 711
2005-06
11 867
6 170
1 426
13 922
7 518
40 985
2006-07
3 879
1 823
907
8 259
2 811
17 613
2007-08 s
3 067
3 790
1 159
9 668
4 858
22 524
2008-09 f
10 451
5 504
1 822
12 095
6 567
37 136
spacer
% change 2007-08
to 2008-09
241
45
57
25
35
65
spacer
a State production include wheat, barley, oats, canola, lupins, field peas, chickpeas, faba beans and lentils. Australian totals also include triticale, linseed and safflowerseed.  f ABARE forecast. s ABARE estimate.
Summer crop production
The total summer crop area is estimated to have increased by around 16 per cent in 2007-08, to just more than 1 million hectares. In October and November 2007, average to above average rainfall throughout the summer cropping regions of northern New South Wales and Queensland resulted in a large area being planted to grain sorghum. However, a lack of irrigation water severely constrained cotton and rice plantings in 2007-08. With timely rainfall throughout summer, total summer crop production is estimated to have increased by 59 per cent to around 3.5 million tonnes (table D).

Grain sorghum production in 2007-08 is estimated to have more than doubled the previous year’s harvest at 2.7 million tonnes. This increase reflects a 30 per cent increase in the area sown and favourable growing conditions. The lack of irrigation water for rice in 2007-08 resulted in the estimated area planted falling to 2000 hectares, the smallest area planted since the industry began in the early 1920s. Despite the lack of water, the season provided favourable growing conditions, resulting in slightly above average yields. However, total rice production is estimated to have fallen by 88 per cent, to around 19 000 tonnes for the 2007-08 season.

Cotton plantings in Australia in 2007-08 were severely limited by shortages of irrigation water and some planted areas were ploughed in because of alleged herbicide spray drift in New South Wales and flood damage in the Emerald region of Queensland. The cotton area harvested in Australia in 2007-08 is estimated to have been 63 000 hectares, the lowest since 1982-83. Generally good growing conditions have been experienced in most cotton producing regions in Australia. This has resulted in surprisingly good cotton yields and better than average fibre quality. Cotton lint production is forecast to be 126 000 tonnes and cottonseed 178 000 tonnes in 2007-08, close to a 55 per cent reduction on the previous year.
D Summer crop plantings and production - Australia a
spacer
New South Wales
Queensland
Australia
spacer
spacer
spacer
spacer
‘ 000 ha
Kt
‘ 000 ha
Kt
‘ 000 ha
Kt
spacer
1995-96
576
2 055
802
1 488
1 448
3 623
1996-97
655
2 774
689
1 485
1 431
4 374
1997-98
617
2 588
640
1 139
1 335
3 823
1998-99
885
3 228
721
1 712
1 741
5 097
1999-00
742
2 882
771
2 031
1 591
5 025
2000-01
825
3 366
816
1 786
1 761
5 286
2001-02
777
3 146
794
1 772
1 633
4 933
2002-03
509
1 582
521
1 199
1 097
2 868
2003-04
436
1 766
708
1 806
1 211
3 679
2004-05
493
1 984
773
1 788
1 340
3 887
2005-06
760
2 765
615
1 512
1 455
4 389
2006-07
332
1 036
520
1 079
912
2 181
2007-08 s
348
1 428
640
1 937
1 062
3 478
spacer
% change 2006-07
to 2007-08
5
38
23
80
16
59
spacer
a State production includes sorghum, rice, cottonseed, maize and sunflowers. Australian production also includes soybeans, peanuts, mung beans and navy beans. s ABARE estimate.