 Following a mostly dry autumn, rainfall across Victoria’s major cropping areas since mid-May 2008 has provided most growers with a reasonable, however late, start to the 2008-09 winter cropping season. In the northern cropping regions a significant proportion of crops were dry sown in autumn, and these have begun to germinate following initial rain. Further follow-up rain is required in most areas for the season ahead.
The major cropping areas of Victoria received average to below-average rainfall throughout autumn, and the three month outlook from the Bureau of Meteorology suggests winter rainfall is most likely to be similar to the long-term average.
The area sown to winter crops in Victoria is forecast to increase by 2 per cent in 2008-09, to around 3.3 million hectares. Assuming 10 year average yields for winter crops, total production in 2008-09 is forecast to be 5.5 million tonnes. This is a 45 per cent increase on the drought affected 2007-08 harvest.
In 2008-09, the area planted to wheat is forecast to increase by 7 per cent to a record 1.6 million hectares. Wheat yields are forecast to return to a historical average of 1.78 tonnes per hectare, compared with the drought affected 1.23 tonnes per hectare in the previous year. Wheat production is forecast to be 2.8 million tonnes in 2008-09, around 1 million tonnes more than the previous year’s harvest.
Barley production is forecast to increase by nearly 50 per cent in 2008-09 to 1.6 million tonnes. The majority of this increase in production is the result of an assumed return to average yields. The area planted to barley is forecast to increase by 3 per cent to 950 000 hectares.
The area planted to canola is forecast to decline by 19 per cent to 220 000 hectares in 2008-09. The decline is largely the result of the late break to the season in Victoria. Canola production is forecast to increase by 76 per cent in 2008-09 to 352 000 tonnes. |
