 Rainfall in May 2008 across the Western Australian grains belt was below average. While above average rainfall in April 2008 was beneficial, a lack of follow-up rainfall since has seen winter crop prospects weaken slightly. In early June 2008, 10 to 20 millimetres of rainfall was received across parts of the grains belt, however falls were patchy. Continued rainfall will be needed over the growing season for crop development.
The northern part of the Western Australian grains belt has had the best start to the winter cropping season for a number of years. Crops planted in April and early May were sown into moisture and have emerged. However, these crops are starting to show signs of moisture stress because of below average May rainfall. Some dry sowing of crops also occurred in this region.
In the central grains belt, seasonal conditions have been variable and around 70 per cent of planting intentions have been completed. Planting in the Esperance and Great Southern regions is close to completion, however a lack of rainfall is of concern to growers.
The total winter crop area is forecast to increase by 23 per cent to 7.7 million hectares in 2008-09, one of the largest areas ever sown to winter crops in Western Australia. The increased area planted to winter crops reflects the favourable April rainfall and the high grain prices currently available.
The Bureau of Meteorology’s three month rainfall outlook for winter is for below average rainfall across the Western Australian grain belt. However, the Bureau cautioned that because of technical issues, its confidence in the current outlook for south-west Western Australia for winter is generally low. Given the variability currently being experienced across the grains belt and the chance of below average rainfall, yields are assumed to be slightly below the 10 year average. Even with below average yields total winter crop production is forecast to increase by 25 per cent to 12.1 million tonnes in 2008-09.
The area sown to wheat is forecast to increase by around 27 per cent to 5.2 million hectares in 2008-09, a record wheat area for Western Australia. While wheat yields are assumed to be slightly below the 10 year average at 1.6 tonnes per hectare in 2008-09, this is still above the yield of 1.49 tonnes per hectare achieved last year. Wheat production is forecast to be 8.3 million tonnes, 2 million tonnes greater than the previous year.
The Western Australian barley area is forecast to be 1.2 million hectares, 50 000 hectares higher than the 2007-08 season. However, barley production is forecast to decline by 3 per cent to 2.1 million tonnes in 2008-09 as a result of lower yields.
It is forecast that the area sown to canola will increase by 58 per cent to 65 000 hectares in 2008-09. The large increase in the area planted to canola reflects the early start to the 2008-09 winter cropping season in Western Australia. Canola production is forecast to increase by around 65 000 tonnes to be 730 000 tonne in 2008-09.
The area sown to lupins is forecast to decline by 20 000 hectares in 2008-09. Production is forecast to increase by 113 000 tonnes in 2008-09 to 323 000 tonnes. |
