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| Poultry |
| Outlook to 2013-14 |
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Sally Fletcher and James Fell |
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| Prospects for growth in the poultry industry are expected
to improve in 2009-10 and over the outlook period as feed grain prices
ease from the highs of 2007-08. Australian poultry production is forecast
to increase by 2 per cent in 2009-10 to 890 000 tonnes, reflecting lower
feed grain prices and continued productivity growth. With feed grain
prices expected to remain below 2007-08 prices, and with productivity
growth expected to continue, poultry production is projected to increase
over the medium term, reaching 980 000 tonnes by 2013-14. Retail prices of fresh whole chicken are forecast to average 530 cents a kilogram in 2009-10, largely unchanged from the estimate for 2008-09. Over the medium term, retail prices (in 2008-09 dollars) are projected to fall to 489 cents a kilogram by 2013-14. This reflects the downward pressure on price caused by higher production and continued productivity improvements. In 2009-10, poultry consumption is forecast to reach 38 kilograms a person, unchanged from 2008-09 but 1 per cent higher than in 2007-08. Over the outlook period, consumption is projected to continue increasing, to reach 40 kilograms a person by 2013-14. This is a result of an easing in the price of poultry relative to the prices of other meats. Poultry is projected to maintain its position as consumers’ most preferred meat. Exports of poultry meat in 2009-10 are projected to increase by 6 per cent to be 38 100 tonnes. The rise in exports is the result of continued production growth, supported by the assumption of a lower Australian dollar. The modest upward trend in exports is projected to continue over the medium term. In the five years to 2013-14, exports are projected to increase to 42 400 tonnes. |