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Neil Thompson and Marina Kim
As the global financial crisis unfolded, world economic activity declined sharply in the fourth quarter of 2008, at an estimated annualised rate of around 6.5 per cent. Preliminary estimates suggest world economic activity contracted at a similar rate in the first quarter of 2009, leading to a significant increase in uncertainty and sizeable declines in business investment and consumer spending.
In recent months, tentative signs have emerged that world economic activity may have stablised, with international trade and global industrial production expanding modestly following large declines earlier in the year. The economic improvement has been more pronounced in China, underpinned by expansionary fiscal and monetary policies. The revival of economic growth in China has provided support to demand for exports from other Asian economies, including Japan, the Republic of Korea and several South-East Asian countries.
Economic activity also appears to be recovering in other emerging economies. For example, economic activity in India has picked up in mid-2009, following a significant slowdown in late 2008 and early 2009. In Brazil, the global economic downturn led to a marked decline in domestic economic activity earlier in the year. However, signs of recovery have emerged over recent months. After contracting sharply earlier in 2009, economic activity in the Russian Federation has risen, supported by a modest pick-up in commodity prices and supportive stimulus policies.
Notwithstanding signs of economic recovery in the emerging economies, economic activity in major OECD countries remains weak, particularly in Western Europe.
World stock markets |
|||
|---|---|---|---|
early March 2009 |
early August 2009 |
change from March 2009 |
|
index |
index |
% |
|
| OECD | |||
| United States | 6 717 |
9 569 |
42.5 |
| Japan | 7 281 |
10 397 |
42.8 |
| Euro area | 1 872 |
2 808 |
50 |
| Australia | 3 194 |
4 533 |
41.9 |
| East Asia | |||
| China | 2 263 |
3 080 |
36.1 |
| Korea, Rep. of | 1 043 |
1 626 |
55.9 |
| Chinese Taipei | 4 539 |
7 292 |
60.7 |
| South-East Asia | |||
| Indonesia | 1 277 |
2 385 |
86.7 |
| Malaysia | 868 |
1 200 |
38.2 |
| Philippines | 1 889 |
2 847 |
50.7 |
| Singapore | 1 528 |
2 664 |
74.4 |
| Thailand | 417 |
696 |
67 |
| India | 8 401 |
16 161 |
92.4 |
The improved world economic outlook has also been reflected in global financial market movements, with significant increases in equity market valuations worldwide.
Prices for many mineral and energy commodities on world markets have strengthened in recent months, although they remain well below the peaks achieved in mid-2008. For example, oil prices in West Texas Intermediate terms have risen from around US$41 a barrel in December 2008 to average US$71 a barrel in August 2009. This compares with the highs of US$145 a barrel reached in July 2008. World prices for many metals have also risen in response to strong import demand from China.
For agricultural commodities, world price movements have varied. While prices for such agricultural commodities as sugar, wool and sheep meat have risen, international prices for grains and oilseeds have weakened, mainly as a result of increased supplies on world markets.
The substantial easing of monetary and fiscal stances in major world economies during late 2008 and early 2009 has provided support for a gradual improvement in economic performance in the remainder of 2009 and into 2010. In preparing this set of commodity forecasts, world economic activity is assumed to contract by 1.2 per cent in 2009, before recording growth of 2.9 per cent in 2010.
For OECD countries, the economic recovery is assumed to be gradual. Monetary and fiscal policies are expected to remain accommodating and a pick-up in domestic demand is likely to occur gradually in 2010. However, continued weak labour market conditions could constrain a major recovery in consumer spending, leading to weaker business investment than would otherwise be the case.
In the United States, substantial stimulus is likely to have stabilised economic activity. Given the recent improvement in financial market sentiment and consumer confidence, there is a strong possibility that a gradual economic recovery will emerge in the United States in late 2009.
In Japan, the economic outlook has improved, with a resumption of export growth in recent months. If sustained, this turnaround in exports is expected to provide support for renewed business investment in 2010. In contrast, economic activity in Western Europe is likely to remain relatively weak, with the pace of economic recovery expected to gradually strengthen toward mid-2010.
For the OECD as a whole, economic activity is assumed to contract by 3.5 per cent in 2009, before growing by 1.1 per cent in 2010.
The strength of recovery in the emerging economies is expected to be more pronounced in the short term. A number of emerging Asian economies have shown signs of improvement, with economic growth expected to gather pace in 2010. In particular, the economic outlook for China and India has improved, which is also expected to provide support for economic activity in neighbouring countries.
The global economic slowdown has adversely affected growth prospects for many Latin American countries, although the recent rise in prices for mineral and energy commodities could prove to be positive for their economic prospects in 2010.
For developing countries
as a whole, economic growth is assumed to average around 2.9 per cent
in 2009, before strengthening to 5.5 per cent in 2010.
Key macroeconomic assumptions |
||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| World | 2007 |
2008 |
2009 |
f |
2010 |
f |
||||
| Economic growth | ||||||||||
| OECD | % |
2.7 |
0.8 |
– 3.5 |
1.1 |
|||||
| United States | % |
2.0 |
1.1 |
– 2.6 |
1.0 |
|||||
| Japan | % |
2.3 |
– 0.7 |
– 6.0 |
1.7 |
|||||
| Western Europe | % |
2.7 |
0.8 |
– 4.1 |
0.7 |
|||||
| – Germany | % |
2.5 |
1.3 |
– 4.7 |
0.3 |
|||||
| – France | % |
2.3 |
0.3 |
– 2.0 |
0.5 |
|||||
| – United Kingdom | % |
2.6 |
0.7 |
– 4.4 |
0.5 |
|||||
| – Italy | % |
1.6 |
– 1.0 |
– 5.1 |
0.3 |
|||||
| Korea, Rep. of | % |
5.1 |
2.2 |
– 2.0 |
3.5 |
|||||
| New Zealand | % |
3.2 |
0.2 |
– 2.1 |
1.5 |
|||||
| Developing countries | % |
8.6 |
6.4 |
2.9 |
5.5 |
|||||
| – non-OECD Asia | % |
10.6 |
7.6 |
5.6 |
7.3 |
|||||
| South-East Asia a | % |
6.3 |
4.8 |
0.3 |
4.1 |
|||||
| China b | % |
13.0 |
9.0 |
8.0 |
9.0 |
|||||
| Chinese Taipei | % |
5.7 |
0.1 |
– 5.0 |
3.5 |
|||||
| Singapore | % |
7.8 |
1.1 |
– 5.5 |
4.1 |
|||||
| India | % |
9.4 |
7.3 |
5.4 |
6.5 |
|||||
| – Latin America | % |
5.7 |
4.2 |
– 2.6 |
2.5 |
|||||
| Russian Federation | % |
8.1 |
5.6 |
– 6.0 |
3.0 |
|||||
| Ukraine | % |
7.9 |
2.1 |
– 10.0 |
2.0 |
|||||
| Eastern Europe | % |
5.4 |
3.0 |
– 5.0 |
1.0 |
|||||
| World c | % |
5.2 |
3.2 |
– 1.2 |
2.9 |
|||||
| Industrial production | ||||||||||
| OECD | % |
2.4 |
– 2.5 |
– 14.6 |
2.3 |
|||||
| Inflation | ||||||||||
| United States | % |
2.9 |
4.1 |
– 0.6 |
1.1 |
|||||
| Interest rates | ||||||||||
| US prime rate d | % |
6.6 |
5.1 |
3.3 |
3.3 |
|||||
| US exchange rates e | ||||||||||
| Yen/US$ | 118 |
104 |
97 |
109 |
||||||
| Euro/US$ |
0.73 |
0.68 |
0.73 |
0.70 |
||||||
| Australia | 2006-07 |
2007-08 |
2008-09 |
s |
2009-10 |
f |
||||
| Economic growth | % |
3.2 |
3.7 |
1.0 |
0.5 |
|||||
| Inflation | % |
2.9 |
3.4 |
3.1 |
1.8 |
|||||
| Interest rates g | % |
6.9 |
7.7 |
6.3 |
5.6 |
|||||
| Australian exchange rates | ||||||||||
| US$/A$ |
0.78 |
0.90 |
0.75 |
0.83 |
||||||
| Yen/A$ |
93 |
99 |
75 |
82 |
||||||
| TWI for A$ h | 65 |
70 |
60 |
66 |
||||||
| a Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand and Viet Nam. b Excludes Hong Kong. c Weighted using 2008 purchasing-power-parity (PPP) valuation of country GDPs by the IMF. d Commercial bank prime lending rates in the United States.e Average of daily rates. g Large business weighted average variable rate on credit outstanding. h Base: May 1970 = 100.s ABARE estimate. f ABARE assumptions. Sources:ABARE; ABS; IMF; OECD; RBA. | ||||||||||
After falling sharply in late 2008 and early 2009, economic activity in the United States appears to be stabilising. While gross domestic product, in real terms, contracted at an annualised rate of 1 per cent in the June quarter 2009, this contraction was significantly weaker than the declines of 6.4 per cent in the March quarter 2009 and 5.4 per cent in the December quarter 2008.
Partial indicators released recently suggest activity in both manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors has improved. Spending on infrastructure projects, as part of the US Government’s US$787 billion fiscal stimulus package, has provided support for the construction sector.
However, consumer spending, which accounts for around 70 per cent of the US economy, remains subdued. Reflecting weak income growth and softening labour market conditions, there is a distinct possibility a major recovery in consumer spending will not occur until the second half of 2010. Since December 2007, the US economy has lost 7.4 million jobs, with the unemployment rate rising to 9.7 per cent in August 2009. Against this backdrop, the US economy is assumed to contract by 2.6 per cent in 2009, before achieving modest growth of 1 per cent in 2010.
There are considerable risks associated with the US economic outlook in 2010. A marked increase in the economic activity depends on the extent to which the US Government’s stimulus package can restore confidence in the economy, leading to higher consumer spending and business investment. On the upside, the pace of economic recovery could prove to be stronger than currently assumed, particularly if the improved economic outlook in major emerging economies leads to increased consumer and business confidence in the United States. On the downside, the fragility of private sector activity could persist in the United States, resulting in weaker economic activity than currently assumed.
In China, economic growth has strengthened in recent quarters, partly as a result of the significant fiscal stimulus (US$585 billion) implemented by the Chinese Government since late 2008. Real gross domestic product grew at a year on year rate of 7.9 per cent in the June quarter 2009, compared with growth of 6.8 per cent in the March quarter 2009 and 6.1 per cent in the December quarter 2008.
Partial indicators released recently suggest economic growth in China is likely to remain strong. For example, urban fixed asset investment rose year on year by 33 per cent in the first eight months of 2009, compared with average growth of 25.5 per cent in 2008. Bank lending reached around 27 per cent of gross domestic product in the first eight months of 2009, which is almost three times higher than in the same period a year earlier.
Growth in consumer spending has been relatively strong, with retail sales increasing year on year by 15.1 per cent in the first eight months of 2009. Although this is lower than the average of 21.6 per cent achieved in 2008, consumer spending has been supported by the Chinese Government’s policy incentives, such as price subsidies for household appliances and lower consumption taxes for small cars. Despite continued weak export performance, industrial production rose year on year by 12.3 per cent in August 2009. In addition, import demand for raw materials (in volume terms) has been increasing since March 2009 as a result of increased investment spending on infrastructure.
Strong domestic demand, underpinned by substantial stimulus measures, is expected to support economic growth in the coming quarters, with the negative effect of weaker exports gradually diminishing. Against this background, economic growth in China is assumed to increase in the short term, averaging around 8 per cent in 2009, before strengthening to 9 per cent in 2010.
Following contractions in late 2008 and early 2009, economic activity has rebounded in both Japan and the Republic of Korea. In Japan, real gross domestic product expanded at an annualised rate of 2.3 per cent in the June quarter 2009, after contracting by 12.4 per cent in the March quarter 2009 and 12.8 per cent in the December quarter 2008. In the Republic of Korea, real gross domestic product rose quarter on quarter by 2.6 per cent in the June quarter 2009, after little growth in the March quarter 2009 and a decline of 5.1 per cent in the December quarter 2008.
The recent economic improvements in Japan and the Republic of Korea mainly reflect the effect of the significant stimulus packages implemented in both countries since late 2008. For example, fiscal stimulus implemented by Japan to date has totalled around 4 per cent of Japan’s gross domestic product. In addition, the Bank of Japan has held its official interest rate at a low of 0.1 per cent since December 2008.
Partial indicators released recently suggest industrial production in both countries has increased and exports (in volume terms) are also recovering from their recent lows. Higher shipments to China have accounted for the majority of export growth in recent months.
While there has been an improvement in business and consumer confidence, considerable uncertainty remains about the economic outlook for both countries. To a large extent, growth prospects for Japan and the Republic of Korea rely on the pace of recovery in demand in their major export markets, including the United States and Western Europe. Given the outlook for only a gradual economic recovery in these economies in 2010, it is unlikely significant support from export demand will eventuate in the near term. In addition, weaker than currently assumed business and consumer spending could also delay a major recovery in domestic demand.
In preparing this set of commodity forecasts, economic activity in Japan is assumed to contract by 6 per cent in 2009, before recovering to growth of 1.7 per cent in 2010. For the Republic of Korea, the economy is assumed to contract by 2 per cent in 2009, before returning to growth of 3.5 per cent in 2010.
Economic performance in non-OECD Asia improved considerably in recent months, as the decline in export growth has moderated and business and consumer confidence in the region has strengthened. For example, real gross domestic product in Singapore recorded annualised growth of 20.7 per cent in the June quarter 2009 after four quarters of contraction. In Indonesia, the economy expanded quarter on quarter by 2.3 per cent in the June quarter 2009, following growth of 1.7 per cent in the March quarter.
Similarly, industrial production has risen from recent lows in many regional economies, including Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand and Viet Nam. Significant contraction in exports, which has occurred since the onset of the global financial crisis, has also slowed. On a monthly basis, exports have been increasing in a number of regional economies.
The slowdown in economic growth, combined with lower fuel and food prices, has contributed to a decline in inflationary pressures across the region. In China, the consumer price index fell year on year by 1.2 per cent in August 2009, the seventh consecutive monthly decline. Inflationary pressures are also falling in Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand and Viet Nam.
Reflecting the relatively weak outlook for the OECD economies, export performance in non-OECD Asia is not expected to recover rapidly in the short term. Domestic demand will remain the main driver of economic growth, as expansionary measures implemented by many regional authorities take effect and business and consumer confidence improves further. Economic growth in non-OECD Asia is assumed to average 5.6 per cent in 2009, before strengthening to 7.3 per cent in 2010.
The key risks to the regional economic outlook continue to be associated with export demand. Slower than expected growth in demand from the OECD countries could affect economic performance in the region. Upside risks relate mainly to the possibility for a stronger than expected expansion in private sector activity in response to significant stimulus implemented by the regional economies.
Economic activity in Western Europe has contracted further in recent months, albeit at a slower pace. On a seasonally adjusted basis, real gross domestic product in the euro area declined by 0.1 per cent in the June quarter 2009, following a contraction of 2.5 per cent in the March quarter. Compared with the same quarter a year earlier, real gross domestic product in the euro area was 4.7 per cent lower in the June quarter 2009.
Partial indicators released recently suggest an improvement in export performance and an increase in business investment. However, private consumption spending remains weak as a result of significantly lower consumer confidence and sharply softer labour market conditions. The unemployment rate in the euro area rose to 9.5 per cent in July 2009, the highest in a decade.
Looking forward, domestic demand is expected to remain weak for some time, reflecting higher unemployment and weaker income growth. Ongoing housing market corrections in a number of countries, including Spain, Ireland, the Netherlands, Greece, Finland and Austria, are also expected to weigh on economic activity.
In preparing this set of commodity forecasts, economic activity in Western Europe is assumed to contract by 4.1 per cent in 2009, before achieving weak growth of 0.7 per cent in 2010.
After contracting in late 2008, economic activity in Australia strengthened during the first half of 2009. In seasonally adjusted terms, real gross domestic product rose by 0.6 per cent in the June quarter 2009, after growing by 0.4 per cent in the March quarter.
Supported by significant fiscal and monetary stimulus, growth in consumer spending remains strong. In seasonally adjusted terms, the volume of retail turnover increased quarter on quarter by 2 per cent in the June quarter 2009, following growth of 1 per cent in the March quarter. While falling year on year by 0.9 per cent, total private business investment rose quarter on quarter by 1.9 per cent in the June quarter 2009.
Economic growth in Australia is assumed to average around 0.5 per cent in 2009-10. This compares with growth of 1 per cent in 2008-09.
Inflationary pressures in Australia moderated in the first half of 2009. The consumer price index rose year on year by 1.5 per cent in the June quarter 2009, compared with an increase of 2.5 per cent in the March quarter. Contributing most to the slower inflation rate in the June quarter were deposit and loan facilities (-4.3 per cent), vegetables (-6.9 per cent), fruit (-7.6 per cent), and overseas holiday travel and accommodation (-3.4 per cent).
Looking forward, inflationary pressures in Australia are likely to remain low in the near term. For 2009-10 as a whole, Australia’s inflation rate is assumed to average around 1.75 per cent, following an average of 3.1 per cent in 2008-09.
After depreciating significantly in the second half of 2008, the Australian dollar has appreciated markedly since March 2009, both against the US dollar and on a trade weighted basis. The Australian dollar was trading around US86c and TWI 67 in mid-September 2009. This compares with a low of US63c and TWI 54 in early March 2009. In the first three months of 2009-10, the Australian dollar is estimated to average around US82c and TWI 65.
The recent appreciation of the Australian dollar appears to reflect an improvement in financial market sentiment toward the prospects for world economic recovery, the likely effect of stronger world economic recovery on commodity demand and prices, and the implications of the above developments for Australia’s terms of trade and export performance.
Another factor which has affected recent movements in the Australian exchange rate is a weakening of the US dollar against most major international currencies. The US dollar was trading around €0.68, £0.60 and ¥91 in mid-September 2009, compared with €0.80, £0.71 and ¥99 in early March 2009.
Judging by its historical movements, the Australian dollar has a tendency to appreciate strongly in the beginning phase of world economic recovery. Therefore, there is a distinct possibility the Australian dollar could remain at its current level or even appreciate further against the US dollar in the short term. This would especially be the case if economic indicators continue pointing to a stronger than expected world economic recovery.
In preparing this set of commodity forecasts, the Australian dollar is assumed to average around US83c and TWI 66 in 2009-10. This compares with an average of US75c and TWI 60 in 2008-09.
There is considerable uncertainty surrounding the short-term outlook for the Australian dollar. This is because movements in the Australian exchange rate can be significantly influenced by changes in financial market sentiment, leading to strong volatility in the Australian exchange rate. For example, over the past 15 months the Australian dollar has fluctuated from a high of US98c and TWI 74 in mid-July 2008 to a low of US60c and TWI 51 in late October 2008. Therefore, it remains important for primary producers and exporters to manage the risks associated with fluctuations in the Australian exchange rate.
The index of unit export returns for Australian commodities, in aggregate, is forecast to fall by 23.6 per cent in 2009-10, following an estimated rise of 28.8 per cent in 2008-09. The main contributing factors to this forecast are sharply lower contract prices for bulk commodities, such as coal and iron ore, and the assumed higher average value of the Australian dollar.
For farm commodities, the index of unit export
returns is forecast to decline by 3.4 per cent in 2009-10,
after remaining largely unchanged in 2008-09. Forecast
lower world indicator prices for wheat, barley, beef
and dairy products are expected to more than offset
forecast higher wool, cotton and sugar prices on world
markets.
Unit export returns for Australian mineral resources
are forecast to fall by 27.1 per cent in 2009-10, following
an estimated rise of 35 per cent in 2008-09. This largely
reflects the effects of lower negotiated prices for
coking coal, thermal coal and iron ore, offsetting
higher world prices for gold and many metals.
Unit returns for energy exports are forecast to decline by 38 per cent in 2009-10, compared with an increase of 68.5 per cent in 2008-09. Unit export returns for metals and other minerals are forecast to decrease by 16.5 per cent in 2009-10, after rising by 12.4 per cent in 2008-09.
The value of Australian commodity exports is forecast to be around $158.3 billion in 2009-10, which is a fall of 19.6 per cent from an estimated $197 billion in 2008-09.
Under the assumptions of less favourable spring seasonal conditions and the higher average value of the Australian exchange rate, export earnings for farm commodities are forecast to be around $31.1 billion in 2009-10, which is a decline of 2.5 per cent from an estimated $31.9 billion in 2008-09. Farm commodities for which export earnings are forecast to be higher in 2009-10 include barley, chickpeas, lupins, peas, rice, raw cotton and sugar. For forest and fisheries products, export earnings are forecast to be around $3.7 billion in 2009-10, which is a decline of 3.4 per cent from their estimated value in 2008-09.
Export earnings for Australian mineral and energy commodities are forecast to be around $123.5 billion in 2009-10, compared with an estimated $161.2 billion in 2008-09. Mineral resources for which export earnings are forecast to rise in 2009-10 include uranium, copper, gold, nickel, silver, tin and titanium. The value of energy exports is forecast to fall by 36.2 per cent to $49.6 billion in 2009-10. For metals and other minerals, export earnings are forecast to decline by 11.6 per cent to $73.8 billion in 2009-10.
Major indicators of Australia's commodity sector |
|||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2004-05 |
2005-06 |
2006-07 |
2007-08 |
2008-09 |
s |
2009-10 |
f |
change
from previous year |
|||
 |
|||||||||||
2008-09 |
2009-10 |
||||||||||
% |
% |
||||||||||
| Commodity exports | |||||||||||
| Exchange rate | US$/A$ |
0.75 |
0.75 |
0.78 |
0.90 |
0.75 |
0.83 |
– 16.7 |
10.7 |
||
| Unit returns a | |||||||||||
| Farm | index |
100.0 |
99.5 |
104.5 |
116.0 |
115.7 |
111.8 |
– 0.3 |
– 3.4 |
||
| Mineral resources | index |
100.0 |
132.2 |
145.2 |
151.8 |
205.0 |
149.5 |
35.0 |
– 27.1 |
||
| – energy minerals | index |
100.0 |
135.8 |
123.7 |
141.2 |
237.9 |
147.5 |
68.5 |
– 38.0 |
||
| – metals and other minerals | index |
100.0 |
129.3 |
162.2 |
160.1 |
179.9 |
150.3 |
12.4 |
– 16.5 |
||
| Total commodities | index |
100.0 |
123.5 |
134.3 |
141.8 |
182.7 |
139.5 |
28.8 |
– 23.6 |
||
| Value of exports | |||||||||||
| Farm | A$m |
27 902 |
27 829 |
27 899 |
27 528 |
31 904 |
31 112 |
15.9 |
– 2.5 |
||
| – crops | A$m |
13 679 |
13 996 |
13 084 |
13 025 |
16 739 |
17 048 |
28.5 |
1.8 |
||
| – livestock | A$m |
14 223 |
13 833 |
14 815 |
14 503 |
15 165 |
14 064 |
4.6 |
– 7.3 |
||
| Forest and fisheries products | A$m |
3 660 |
3 687 |
3 849 |
3 813 |
3 875 |
3 738 |
1.6 |
– 3.5 |
||
| Mineral resources | A$m |
69 511 |
92 611 |
107 976 |
117 696 |
161 218 |
123 460 |
37.0 |
– 23.4 |
||
| – energy minerals | A$m |
29 696 |
39 328 |
39 427 |
45 591 |
77 765 |
49 647 |
70.6 |
– 36.2 |
||
| – metals and other minerals | A$m |
39 816 |
53 283 |
68 549 |
72 104 |
83 454 |
73 814 |
15.7 |
– 11.6 |
||
| Total commodities | A$m |
101 073 |
124 127 |
139 723 |
149 037 |
196 998 |
158 311 |
32.2 |
– 19.6 |
||
| Farm sector | |||||||||||
| Gross value of farm production b | A$m |
36 537 |
38 695 |
36 247 |
43 689 |
45 162 |
44 205 |
3.4 |
– 2.1 |
||
| – crops | A$m |
18 717 |
20 899 |
17 995 |
24 168 |
25 417 |
25 748 |
5.2 |
1.3 |
||
| – livestock | A$m |
17 820 |
17 796 |
18 252 |
19 521 |
19 745 |
18 458 |
1.2 |
– 6.5 |
||
| Farm costs | A$m |
29 243 |
31 276 |
31 413 |
37 072 |
36 938 |
36 139 |
– 0.4 |
– 2.2 |
||
| Net cash income c | A$m |
12 582 |
11 308 |
9 980 |
10 836 |
8 791 |
12 839 |
– 18.9 |
46.1 |
||
| Net value of farm production d | A$m |
7 294 |
7 418 |
4 833 |
6 617 |
8 224 |
8 067 |
24.3 |
– 1.9 |
||
| Farmers’ terms of trade | index |
91.7 |
91.0 |
94.1 |
91.1 |
92.6 |
91.5 |
1.6 |
– 1.2 |
||
| Volume of farm production | index |
107.8 |
111.7 |
95.4 |
104.4 |
110.5 |
112.4 |
5.8 |
1.7 |
||
| – crops | index |
111.3 |
119.7 |
84.8 |
104.5 |
118.0 |
122.7 |
12.9 |
4.0 |
||
| – livestock | index |
103.1 |
103.0 |
105.4 |
102.7 |
100.7 |
99.7 |
– 1.9 |
– 1.0 |
||
| Crop area and livestock numbers | |||||||||||
| Crop area (grains and oilseeds) | ’000 ha |
23 808 |
22 197 |
21 054 |
23 174 |
22 892 |
23 286 |
– 1.2 |
1.7 |
||
| Sheep | million |
100.6 |
91.0 |
85.7 |
76.9 |
72.8 |
69.2 |
– 5.3 |
– 4.9 |
||
| Cattle | million |
28.2 |
28.4 |
28.0 |
27.3 |
27.3 |
26.8 |
0.0 |
– 1.8 |
||
| Minerals and energy sector | |||||||||||
| Volume of mine production | index |
118.6 |
118.1 |
121.2 |
120.6 |
118.4 |
123.9 |
– 1.8 |
4.6 |
||
| – energy | index |
113.4 |
111.6 |
118.5 |
116.4 |
116.7 |
122.6 |
0.3 |
5.1 |
||
| – metals and other minerals | index |
123.5 |
124.2 |
124.3 |
124.8 |
119.9 |
125.1 |
– 3.9 |
4.3 |
||
| Gross value of mine production | A$m |
66 731 |
88 907 |
103 657 |
112 988 |
154 770 |
118 522 |
37.0 |
– 23.4 |
||
| New capital expenditure e | A$m |
10 253 |
18 608 |
22 119 |
27 353 |
35 675 |
37 880 |
30.4 |
6.2 |
||
| Exploration expenditure | A$m |
2 073 |
2 503 |
3 334 |
4 694 |
4 875 |
na |
3.9 |
na |
||
| – energy | A$m |
1 192 |
1 484 |
1 927 |
2 699 |
3 134 |
na |
16.1 |
na |
||
| – metals and other minerals | A$m |
881 |
1 018 |
1 407 |
1 995 |
1 741 |
na |
– 12.8 |
na |
||
| Employment | |||||||||||
| Agriculture, forestry and fishing | ’000 |
357 |
348 |
350 |
353 |
358 |
na |
1.4 |
na |
||
| Mining | ’000 |
105 |
129 |
135 |
145 |
167 |
na |
15.3 |
na |
||
| Australia | ’000 |
9 767 |
10 070 |
10 352 |
10 621 |
10 741 |
na |
1.1 |
na |
||
| a Base: 2004-05 = 100. b For a definition of the gross value of farm production see table 21. c Gross value of farm production less increase in assets held by marketing authorities and less total cash costs. d Gross value of farm production less total farm costs. e Mining industry (ANZSIC subdivision B) only. s ABARE estimate. f ABARE forecast. na Not available.Note:ABARE revised the method for calculating farm price and production indexes in October 1999. The indexes for the different groups of commodities are calculated on a chain weight basis using Fishers' ideal index with a reference year of 1997-98 = 100. Sources:Australian Bureau of Statistics; ABARE. | |||||||||||