abare.gov.au - Australian crop report

Overview

Summer cropping regions of northern New South Wales and southern Queensland received favourable rainfall from November 2008 through to early January 2009. The recharge in sub-soil moisture has benefited crops, particularly as mid-January and early February were hot and dry, with winds drying out soil moisture profiles and increasing crop water use.

Total summer crop area in 2008-09 is estimated to be around 1.1 million hectares similar to the area planted in 2007-08 and similar to ABARE’s December 2008 forecast. The area planted to grain sorghum is estimated to have declined as a result of a significant fall in feed grain prices and a reduction in the area of fallow land available. Conversely, an improvement in water storage levels has resulted in an increase in the area planted to both cotton and rice. Despite the increase, the area planted to both crops is low in historical terms, as the availability of irrigation water remains a critical issue for both industries.

The total area planted to grain sorghum is estimated at 717 000 hectares in 2008-09, which is 15 per cent below the area planted last year. This reflects a fall in the area of fallow land available at planting and significantly lower feed grain prices. Average to above average rainfall received in late spring and early summer provided an ideal start to the season and, despite the hot and relatively dry January, should result in average to above average yields, particularly for early sown crops. Total grain sorghum production is forecast to reach 2.1 million tonnes in 2008-09.

The area planted to rice in 2008-09 is estimated at around 9000 hectares. This is a significant increase from the estimated 2000 hectares planted last year, but well below historical averages as a result of the continued limited supply of irrigation water. Above average temperatures in the Riverina, particularly overnight temperatures, will assist yield potential. Total rice production is forecast to be 75 000 tonnes in 2008-09.

The area planted to cotton in 2008-09 is estimated to have more than doubled to around 164 400 hectares. Improved irrigation water supplies and fine, hot weather have benefited the development of 2008-09 cotton crops in most of Australia’s cotton growing regions. Australian cottonseed and cotton lint production in 2008-09 are forecast to be 445 000 tonnes and 314 700 tonnes respectively, more than double the severely drought affected harvest of 2007-08.

The harvesting of 2008-09 winter crops has finished in most major growing areas. Total winter grains production is estimated at 32.9 million tonnes. Although this is a 46 per cent increase from 2007-08, it is below mid-year expectations, reflecting the poor spring in southern New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia. It is estimated that around 41 per cent of Australia’s total winter crop was produced in Western Australia. Of the major winter grains, wheat production is estimated at around 21.4 million tonnes, barley production estimated at 6.8 million tonnes and canola production at 1.6 million tonnes.

Rainfall

Summer cropping regions in northern New South Wales and southern Queensland received average to above average rainfall over the November 2008 to January 2009 period, improving summer crop prospects. Details of rainfall received in this period for major cropping areas in Australia are provided in table 4. Rainfall received over the November to January period is shown in map 1.

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology in its latest (22 January 2009) seasonal rainfall outlook for the late summer to mid-autumn period (February–April) indicated a mixed outlook for exceeding median rainfall. There is a moderate to strong shift in the odds favouring above average rainfall over much of Western Australia, as well as for an area covering southern South Australia. Conversely, there is a moderate shift in the odds favouring below average rainfall over parts of central Queensland. Across the rest of the country, the chance of exceeding average rainfall during the February to April period is average.

In its latest temperature outlook (22 January 2009), the Bureau of Meteorology announced that there is a moderate to strong shift in the odds favouring warmer than normal daytime temperatures over central Queensland, with a moderate shift in the odds towards cooler temperatures over central Western Australia. Overnight temperatures are forecast to be below average in southern Queensland and parts of northern New South Wales. Across the rest of the country, there is an equal chance of exceeding average temperatures.

Summer crop production

Total summer crop area in 2008-09 is estimated to have been 1.1 million hectares, similar to the area planted in 2007-08 and largely unchanged from ABARE’s forecast in December 2008. The area planted to grain sorghum is estimated to have declined as a result of a significant fall in feed grain prices and a reduction in the area of fallow land available. Conversely, an improvement in water storage levels has resulted in an increase in the area planted to both cotton and rice. Despite the increase, the area planted is still relatively low, as the availability of irrigation water remains a critical issue for both industries.

The total area planted to grain sorghum is estimated at 717 000 hectares in 2008-09, 15 per cent below the area planted last year, which reflects a fall in the area of fallow land available at planting and significantly lower feed grain prices. Average to above average rainfall received in late spring and early summer provided an ideal start to the season and, despite the hot and dry January, should result in average to above average yields, particularly for early sown crops. Total grain sorghum production is forecast to reach 2.1 million tonnes in 2008-09, compared with the record 3.1 million tonnes produced last season.

The area planted to rice in 2008-09 is estimated at around 9000 hectares; 8000 hectares in traditional rice growing areas of the Riverina and 1000 hectares in coastal northern New South Wales. Total rice production is forecast to be 75 000 tonnes in 2008-09, around 56 000 tonnes more than was produced in 2007-08. The area planted to cotton in 2008-09 is forecast to more than double to around 164 400 hectares, reflecting an improvement in water availability. Cottonseed and cotton lint production in 2008-09 are forecast to be 445 000 tonnes and 314 700 tonnes respectively, more than double what was produced last season.

A number of organisations provide forecast yields for grains, including wheat and grain sorghum. The shire scale sorghum forecasting system of the Queensland Department of Primary Industries and Fisheries combines starting soil moisture conditions with the seasonal outlook, including the most recent trend in the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). The forecast at the start of February (map 2) indicates that most areas in central Queensland and northern New South Wales (coloured dark grey, green and blue) show average to above average crop yield expectations. Most areas in southern Queensland (coloured light grey, orange and yellow) show crop yield expectations similar to or below the long-term average.

A	Summer crop plantings and production - Australia a

New South Wales

Queensland

Australia

' 000 ha

1996-97

655

2 774

689

1 485

1 431

4 374

1997-98

617

2 588

640

1 139

1 335

3 823

1998-99

885

3 228

721

1 712

1 741

5 097

1999-00

742

2 882

771

2 031

1 591

5 025

2000-01

825

3 366

816

1 786

1 761

5 286

2001-02

777

3 146

794

1 772

1 633

4 933

2002-03

509

1 582

521

1 199

1 097

2 868

2003-04

436

1 766

708

1 806

1 211

3 679

2004-05

493

1 984

773

1 788

1 340

3 889

2005-06

760

2 765

615

1 512

1 442

4 387

2006-07

332

1 036

520

1 079

912

2 181

2007-08

359

1 591

675

2 163

1 108

3 867

2008-09 previous

371

1 322

667

1 786

1 113

3 207

2008-09 f

380

1 394

672

1 785

1 126

3 279

% change 2007-08 to 2008-09

-12

-17

-15

a State production includes sorghum, rice, cottonseed, maize and sunflowers. Australian production also includes soybeans, peanuts, mung beans and navy beans. f ABARE forecast. s ABARE estimate.
Note: Previous refers to the numbers published in the previous issue of the Australian Crop Report.

Winter crop production

The harvesting of winter crops is complete in most grain growing areas. Untimely November rainfall in all states, except South Australia, interrupted harvest and depending on the stage of crop maturity at the time, resulted in varying degrees of quality downgrading. Total winter grains production is estimated to be 32.9 million tonnes. Although this is a 46 per cent increase from 2007-08, it is below earlier forecasts at the beginning of the season reflecting a poor spring in southern New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia. However, this production estimate is around 2.3 million tonnes higher than ABARE’s December estimate of 30.6 million tonnes. This largely reflects an increase in production estimates for Western Australia.

Of the major winter grains, wheat production is estimated at around 21.4 million tonnes in 2008-09, a 64 per cent increase from 2007-08. Despite this being below mid-year expectations, it is above ABARE’s December 2008 estimate of 20 million tonnes. Poor spring conditions also hampered barley production in 2008-09, which is estimated at 6.8 million tonnes, 900 000 tonnes more than was produced last season, but less than initially forecast. Canola production is estimated at 1.6 million tonnes, which is around 52 per cent more than in 2007-08.

B	Winter crop production - Australia a

New South Wales

Victoria

Queensland

Western
Australia

South
Australia

Australia

1996-97

11 285

4 599

2 469

11 192

5 458

35 071

1997-98

8 558

3 398

1 637

12 097

5 360

31 116

1998-99

9 718

3 495

2 322

12 232

6 305

34 159

1999-00

11 495

5 139

2 222

13 311

4 751

36 981

2000-01

10 834

6 232

1 340

8 726

7 486

34 696

2001-02

11 171

5 873

1 142

12 050

8 927

39 240

2002-03

3 505

1 955

836

6 812

4 227

17 402

2003-04

10 768

6 945

1 473

16 683

7 450

43 395

2004-05

10 724

4 203

1 383

12 472

5 849

34 711

2005-06

11 867

6 170

1 426

13 922

7 518

40 985

2006-07

3 837

1 787

907

8 253

2 792

17 613

2007-08

3 145

3 893

1 160

9 707

4 911

22 525

2008-09 previous

9 076

2 774

2 029

11 915

4 273

30 595

2008-09 s

9 703

3 079

2 191

13 441

4 518

32 886

% change 2007-08 to 2008-09

209

-21

-8

a State production include wheat, barley, oats, canola, lupins, field peas, chickpeas, faba beans and lentils. Australian totals also include triticale, linseed and safflowerseed. f ABARE forecast. s ABARE estimate.
Note: Previous refers to the numbers published in the previous issue of the Australian Crop Report.