Australian crop report – 8 December 2009

Overview

The total area planted to summer crops in 2009-10 is forecast to decline from last season. A lack of rainfall over the summer cropping regions in northern New South Wales and southern Queensland has resulted in grain sorghum plantings being well below what was planted this time last season. Further rainfall will be required to improve grain sorghum prospects.

The area planted to rice in 2009-10 is forecast to be 18 600 hectares, a substantial increase from the 8000 hectares planted last season, but well below average. The rise reflects increased availability of irrigation water in the Murray-Darling and Murrumbidgee catchment areas. Assuming average yields, total rice production in 2009-10 is forecast to reach 165 000 tonnes.

Australian cotton plantings in 2009-10 are forecast to increase by 24 per cent to 203 000 hectares. This is despite a decline in the availability of irrigation water compared with the same time in 2008 and reflects expectations of improved returns from cotton production relative to alternative enterprises. Australian cotton lint production is forecast to increase to 374 000 tonnes in 2009-10, 45 000 tonnes more than 2008-09 production. Cottonseed production is forecast to reach 528 000 tonnes.

The total area planted to grain sorghum is forecast at 637 000 hectares in 2009-10, 16 per cent less than the area planted last season. This fall reflects below average rainfall over northern New South Wales and southern Queensland throughout spring, which has reduced sub-soil moisture and delayed plantings. The latest seasonal rainfall outlook suggests there is a 50 per cent chance of exceeding median rainfall over most of the country. If this outlook is realised, it is likely more plantings of grain sorghum will occur early in 2010. At this stage, total grain sorghum production in 2009-10 is forecast to reach 1.6 million tonnes.

The winter cropping season has been mixed for the states. Production in Queensland and New South Wales has been revised down from earlier estimates as dry seasonal conditions continued through spring. Prospects in southern and central New South Wales have deteriorated the most, with limited spring rainfall and frosts reducing yields and causing crop failure. Rain and hail has led to a downward revision for Western Australian production. Conversely, yields in the major cropping regions of South Australia and Victoria are expected to be significantly higher than last season, reflecting above average rainfall received throughout spring. However, recent extreme temperatures in these states followed by rainfall during harvest have raised concerns about grain quality.

Total winter grains production is estimated to be 35.7 million tonnes in 2009-10. Of the major winter grains, wheat production is estimated at around 22 million tonnes, 5 per cent higher than last season. Barley production is estimated to reach 8.3 million tonnes in 2009-10 compared with 7.7 million tonnes in 2008-09. Canola production in 2009-10 is estimated to be around 1.8 million tonnes, down from the 1.9 million tonnes produced in 2008-09.

Rainfall

Rainfall throughout the winter grain growing period was variable. Average to above average rainfall was received in Western Australia, South Australia and Victoria. However, rainfall across the majority of New South Wales and Queensland was below to very much below average. Details of rainfall received in the April to October period are provided in table A.

Rainfall received over the crucial September to November period is shown in map 1. Western Australia, South Australia and Victoria all received average to above average spring rainfall. However, the majority of Queensland’s cropping regions received below to very much below average spring rainfall. Many cropping areas in New South Wales also received below average spring rainfall.

A April to October rainfall in major grain growing regions
	average a	2007	2008	2009	2007	2008	2009
	mm	mm	mm	mm	% of average	% of average	% of average
Queensland
Central Highlands (35)	209	228	215	133	109	103	64
Maranoa (43)	228	199	215	178	87	94	78
West Darling Downs (42)	237	231	215	213	97	91	90
East Darling Downs (41)	291	276	198	230	95	68	79
Moreton South Coast (40)	453	413	351	448	91	77	99
New South Wales
North West Plains (W) (52)	239	211	219	268	88	92	112
North West Plains (E) (53)	277	246	226	243	89	82	88
North West Slopes (N) (54)	308	283	228	231	92	74	75
North West Slopes (S) (55)	325	318	316	267	98	97	82
Northern Tablelands (N) (56)	365	360	289	372	99	79	102
Central West Plains (S) (50)	260	199	215	178	77	83	69
Central West Plains (N) (51)	245	169	187	268	69	76	109
Central West Slopes (N) (64)	318	289	279	230	91	88	72
Central West Slopes (S) (65)	333	253	278	258	76	84	78
Central Tablelands (N) (62)	338	360	289	372	106	85	110
Central Tablelands (S) (63)	465	386	353	370	83	76	80
Riverina (W) (75)	221	147	133	178	67	60	81
Riverina (E) (74)	294	192	164	230	65	56	78
South West Slopes (N) (73)	366	265	259	317	72	71	87
South West Slopes (S) (72)	542	383	364	538	71	67	99
Southern Tablelands (GM)(70)	368	343	252	317	93	68	86
Victoria
North Mallee (76)	201	174	130	214	86	65	106
South Mallee (77)	234	193	153	239	82	65	102
North Wimmera (78)	280	219	181	290	78	65	104
South Wimmera (79)	358	318	252	387	89	70	108
Lower North (80)	280	186	154	230	66	55	82
Upper North (81)	341	252	201	302	74	59	89
Lower North East (82)	546	434	362	565	80	66	104
Upper North East (83)	757	551	413	608	73	55	80
North Central (88)	493	362	294	401	73	60	81
Central Western (89)	420	379	293	409	90	70	97
South Australia
Upper South East (25B)	310	272	232	324	88	75	105
Murray Mallee (25A)	209	168	148	208	80	71	100
Murray River (24)	225	180	169	233	80	75	103
East Central (23)	454	367	337	466	81	74	103
West Central (22)	331	337	281	423	102	85	128
Lower North (21)	317	228	219	344	72	69	109
Upper North (19)	221	128	128	193	58	58	87
Western (18)	246	136	127	207	55	52	84
Western Australia
North Coast (8)	324	185	284	289	57	88	89
Central Coast (9)	732	547	577	532	75	79	73
Northern Central (10)	277	197	273	239	71	98	86
South Coast (9A)	752	623	625	587	83	83	78
South Central (10A)	339	293	349	260	87	103	77
South East (12)	158	89	107	119	56	68	75
Tasmania
Northern (91)	710	724	572	847	102	81	119
Midlands (93)	329	271	229	524	82	70	159
a Average from 1913 to 2009.

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology, in its latest (24 November 2009) seasonal rainfall outlook for the summer period, indicates that the chance of exceeding average rainfall across the summer cropping region is around 45 to 50 per cent. This means above average rainfall is about as equally likely as below average rainfall.

Across northern New South Wales and southern Queensland the chance of exceeding average maximum temperatures this summer is above average (55 to 65 per cent). The chance of exceeding average minimum temperatures over the same area is between 60 and 75 per cent.

An El Niño event persists across the Pacific Basin, with most leading climate models suggesting tropical ocean temperatures will remain above El Niño thresholds until at least early 2010. El Niño events are usually, but not always, associated with below average rainfall in the second half of the year across large parts of southern and inland eastern Australia.

A number of organisations provide forecast yields for grains, including wheat and grain sorghum. The shire scale grain sorghum forecasting system of the Queensland Department of Primary Industries and Fisheries combines starting soil moisture conditions with the seasonal outlook, including the most recent trend in the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). The probability at the beginning of December of exceeding average grain sorghum yields is less than 50 per cent in all regions (map 2). In the majority of grain sorghum growing regions of Queensland, the chance of exceeding long-term median yields ranges from 10 to 40 per cent, reflecting the very dry conditions experienced over a number of months. Similarly, in New South Wales the chance of exceeding average yields is low, ranging from 10 to 40 per cent (map 3).

Summer crop production

Total summer crop production is forecast to fall by 28 per cent to around 2.8 million tonnes in 2009-10, reflecting a forecast decline in grain sorghum production. Total summer crop area is estimated to fall by around 9 per cent to slightly more than 1 million hectares in 2009-10 (table B). Below to very much below average rainfall throughout winter and spring in key growing regions of northern New South Wales and southern Queensland is forecast to result in a decline in the area planted to grain sorghum. Availability of irrigation water remains a critical issue for cotton and rice production.

Australian cotton plantings in 2009-10 are forecast to increase by 24 per cent, to 203 000 hectares. This is mainly because of expectations of improved returns from cotton relative to returns from production alternatives, and occurs despite an irrigation water situation in a number of cotton growing regions that is worse than at the same time in 2008 (figure A). With the regulated planting window now closed for the genetically modified (GM) cotton varieties that make up more than 90 per cent of total Australian cotton plantings, further rainfall in December 2009 in northern New South Wales and southern and central Queensland is unlikely to lead to significantly more cotton plantings in 2009-10. Australian cotton lint production is forecast to increase to 374 000 tonnes in 2009-10, compared with 329 000 tonnes in 2008-09, which implies that Australian cottonseed production will increase to 528 000 tonnes in 2009-10.

With an improvement in the availability of irrigation water for rice growing, the area planted to rice in 2009-10 is forecast to increase significantly from the 8000 hectares planted in 2008-09, to 18 600 hectares. Assuming average yields, rice production in 2009-10 is forecast to reach 165 000 tonnes.

The total area planted to grain sorghum is forecast at 637 000 hectares in 2009-10, a 16 per cent decline from the area sown last year, reflecting below to very much below average winter and spring rainfall in key growing regions. Grain sorghum production in 2009-10 is forecast to decline by 40 per cent to 1.6 million tonnes because of a lack of sub-soil moisture in the summer cropping regions of northern New South Wales and southern Queensland.

B Summer crop plantings and production - Australia a
	New South Wales		Queensland		Australia
	' 000 ha	Kt	' 000 ha	Kt	' 000 ha	Kt
1996-97	655	2 774	689	1 485	1 431	4 374
1997-98	617	2 588	640	1 139	1 335	3 823
1998-99	885	3 228	721	1 712	1 741	5 097
1999-00	742	2 882	771	2 031	1 591	5 025
2000-01	825	3 366	816	1 786	1 761	5 286
2001-02	777	3 146	794	1 772	1 633	4 933
2002-03	509	1 582	521	1 199	1 097	2 868
2003-04	436	1 766	708	1 806	1 211	3 679
2004-05	493	1 984	773	1 788	1 340	3 889
2005-06	760	2 765	615	1 512	1 442	4 387
2006-07	332	1 036	520	1 079	912	2 181
2007-08	378	1 650	756	2 826	1 205	4 584
2008-09 s	389	1 532	691	2 206	1 155	3 845
2009-10 previous	369	1 235	620	1 618	1 060	2 944
2009-10 f	375	1 221	608	1 452	1 054	2 764
% change 2008-09 to 2009-10	-4	-20	-12	-34	-9	-28
a State production includes grain sorghum, rice, cottonseed, maize and sunflowers. Australian production also includes soybeans, peanuts, mung beans and navy beans. f ABARE forecast. s ABARE estimate. Note: Previous refers to the numbers published in the previous issue of the Australian crop report.

Winter crop production

Total winter crop production in 2009-10 is estimated at 35.7 million tonnes (table C). This is a slight downward revision from ABARE’s September forecast. Continued dry seasonal conditions have resulted in a further downward revision of forecast production for both New South Wales and Queensland. Conversely, rain and hail has led to a downward revision for Western Australia. However, this has been partially offset by upward revisions for Victoria and South Australia. The total area sown to winter crops in 2009-10 is estimated to have been similar to the area planted last season at slightly more than 22 million hectares (table D).  

Of the major winter grains, wheat production is estimated at around 22 million tonnes in 2009-10, a slight downward revision from ABARE’s September forecast. Barley production is estimated to reach 8.3 million tonnes in 2009-10, 623 000 tonnes more than last season. Canola production is estimated at around 1.8 million tonnes, around 5 per cent less than 2008-09.

C Winter crop production - Australia a
	New South Wales	Victoria	Queensland	Western Australia	South Australia	Australia
	Kt	Kt	Kt	Kt	Kt	Kt
1997-98	8 558	3 398	1 637	12 097	5 360	31 116
1998-99	9 718	3 495	2 322	12 232	6 305	34 159
1999-00	11 495	5 139	2 222	13 311	4 751	36 981
2000-01	10 834	6 232	1 340	8 726	7 486	34 696
2001-02	11 171	5 873	1 142	12 050	8 927	39 240
2002-03	3 505	1 955	836	6 812	4 227	17 402
2003-04	10 768	6 945	1 473	16 683	7 450	43 395
2004-05	10 724	4 203	1 383	12 472	5 849	34 710
2005-06	11 867	6 170	1 426	13 922	7 518	40 985
2006-07	3 837	1 787	907	8 253	2 792	17 613
2007-08	4 000	4 711	1 195	10 750	4 713	25 433
2008-09	9 381	3 869	2 064	13 440	4 860	33 691
2009-10  previous	9 123	5 549	1 687	12 977	6 549	35 961
2009-10  s	7 560	6 729	1 531	12 125	7 676	35 695
% change 2008-09 to 2009-10	-19	74	-26	-10	58	6
a State production includes wheat, barley, oats, canola, lupins, field peas, chickpeas, faba beans and lentils. Australian totals also include triticale, linseed and safflowerseed. s ABARE estimate. Note: Previous refers to the numbers published in the previous issue of the Australian crop report.

D Winter crop area - Australia a
	New South Wales	Victoria	Queensland	Western Australia	South Australia	Australia
	000 ha	000 ha	000 ha	000 ha	000 ha	000 ha
1997-98	4 543	2 315	1 213	7 141	3 047	18 260
1998-99	4 927	2 454	1 420	7 419	3 376	19 582
1999-00	4 955	2 670	1 337	7 464	3 342	19 763
2000-01	5 398	2 706	1 126	7 390	3 667	20 280
2001-02	5 309	2 684	788	7 173	3 866	19 817
2002-03	4 782	2 928	774	7 174	3 965	19 623
2003-04	6 070	3 126	1 039	7 689	4 034	21 982
2004-05	6 456	3 130	878	7 936	4 018	22 445
2005-06	5 554	2 908	967	7 394	3 882	20 642
2006-07	5 616	3 054	792	6 474	4 152	20 117
2007-08	6 315	3 397	879	7 262	4 142	22 017
2008-09	6 197	3 325	1 077	7 660	3 960	22 244
2009-10  previous	6 120	3 170	1 348	7 528	4 020	22 207
2009-10  s	6 120	3 171	1 348	7 532	4 020	22 212
% change 2008-09 to 2009-10	-1	-5	25	-2	2	0
a State areas include wheat, barley, oats, canola, lupins, field peas, chickpeas, faba beans and lentils. Australian totals also include triticale, linseed and safflower. s ABARE estimate. Note: Previous refers to the numbers published in the previous issue of the Australian crop report.