Overview

• Most of Queensland, northern and central New South Wales, western Victoria and South Australia have had relatively good starts to the 2009-10 winter cropping season. Average autumn rainfall was received in most areas and with further rain in early June, most farmers were able to finish sowing their winter crops. In southern New South Wales, eastern Victoria and Western Australia the start to the season has been poor, with below average rainfall received throughout autumn. The lack of autumn rainfall in these regions meant that many winter crops were dry sown or not sown during the optimal planting window as growers waited for rain. However, widespread early June rainfall has provided some relief, boosting crops which have been dry sown and enabling further planting to occur in these regions.
• The Australian Bureau of Meteorology in its latest seasonal rainfall outlook (26 May 2009) for the June to August period indicates a slight increase in the odds toward below average rainfall in the grain growing regions of Western Australia, South Australia, Victoria and south-west New South Wales. The national outlook for maximum temperatures averaged over winter shows a moderate to strong shift in the odds toward warmer than normal conditions across southern Australia, particularly in Western Australia. If this seasonal outlook is realised, it is likely to have a negative effect on 2009-10 winter crop yields, particularly in Western Australia.
• The total area sown to winter crops in 2009-10 is forecast to increase by 1 per cent from the previous season to be 21.9 million hectares. Total winter crop production is forecast to reach 34.8 million tonnes, a 5 per cent rise on the 2008-09 season, reflecting a forecast improvement in yields, particularly in Victoria and South Australia.
• Of the major winter crops, the area sown to wheat in 2009-10 is forecast to fall marginally to around 13.5 million hectares. Assuming an improvement in yields from the 2008-09 season, total wheat production is forecast to reach around 22 million tonnes in 2009-10, an increase of around 3 per cent. The area sown to barley in 2009-10 is forecast to fall marginally from the previous season, to around 4.5 million hectares. Barley production is forecast to increase by 13 per cent to 7.7 million tonnes, reflecting an expected improvement in yields. The 2009-10 canola area is forecast to increase by around 7 per cent to 1.2 million hectares. Despite the increase in area, canola production is forecast to fall by 9 per cent which largely reflects a decline in Western Australian production.
• Total summer crop production in 2008-09 is estimated to have fallen by 11 per cent to around 3.5 million tonnes. Despite summer cropping regions of northern New South Wales and southern Queensland receiving favourable rainfall throughout the majority of the season, grain sorghum yields did not reach the records achieved in 2007-08. An improvement in water storage levels resulted in an increase in the area planted to both cotton and rice. However, the area planted to both crops was low in historical terms, as the availability of irrigation water remains a critical issue for both industries.

Rainfall

Map 1 illustrates rainfall deficiencies throughout Western Australia, eastern Victoria, parts of southern New South Wales, and central Queensland for the March-May period. The majority of grain growing regions in South Australia, western Victoria and northern and central New South Wales received average to above average rainfall. Details of rainfall received in the March–May period are provided in table A.

A March - May rainfall in major grain growing regions
	average a	2007	2008	2009	2007	2008	2009
	mm	mm	mm	mm	% of	% of	% of
					average	average	average
Queensland
Central Highlands (35)	129	48	32	87	37	25	68
Maranoa (43)	116	45	24	95	39	21	82
West Darling Downs (42)	119	64	34	134	54	29	113
East Darling Downs (41)	140	64	43	148	46	31	106
Moreton South Coast (40)	307	109	139	359	36	45	117
New South Wales
North West Plains (W) (52)	114	103	41	112	91	36	99
North West Plains (E) (53)	127	115	44	122	90	35	96
North West Slopes (N) (54)	135	135	32	121	100	24	90
North West Slopes (S) (55)	129	161	51	104	125	39	81
Northern Tablelands (N) (56)	153	174	72	224	114	47	147
Central West Plains (S) (50)	113	110	54	87	98	48	77
Central West Plains (N) (51)	113	106	48	113	94	43	100
Central West Slopes (N) (64)	138	152	58	89	110	42	64
Central West Slopes (S) (65)	137	135	62	104	99	45	76
Central Tablelands (N) (62)	141	162	61	102	115	43	72
Central Tablelands (S) (63)	210	173	95	174	83	45	83
Riverina (W) (75)	88	101	44	57	114	50	65
Riverina (E) (74)	110	113	48	66	103	44	60
South West Slopes (N) (73)	138	146	90	109	105	65	79
South West Slopes (S) (72)	182	205	112	158	113	62	87
Southern Tablelands (GM)(70)	155	126	77	119	81	50	77
Victoria
North Mallee (76)	69	120	40	65	175	58	95
South Mallee (77)	80	124	49	71	154	61	88
North Wimmera (78)	88	133	60	76	150	68	86
South Wimmera (79)	111	161	82	98	146	74	89
Lower North (80)	99	124	49	71	125	50	72
Upper North (81)	118	154	68	79	130	57	67
Lower North East (82)	175	217	111	155	124	63	89
Upper North East (83)	239	247	120	167	103	50	70
North Central (88)	161	184	89	107	114	55	67
Central Western (89)	140	150	85	113	107	61	81
South Australia
Upper South East (25B)	95	123	68	86	130	72	91
Murray Mallee (25A)	67	110	47	55	165	71	83
Murray River (24)	72	113	53	54	157	73	75
East Central (23)	135	185	116	128	137	86	95
West Central (22)	97	178	86	103	183	88	106
Lower North (21)	92	142	79	81	155	86	88
Upper North (19)	68	85	37	53	126	55	78
Western (18)	73	118	39	87	161	53	119
Western Australia
North Coast (8)	95	28	100	13	30	106	14
Central Coast (9)	171	110	154	55	64	90	32
Northern Central (10)	89	50	72	52	56	81	58
South Coast (9A)	197	162	206	99	82	105	50
South Central (10A)	101	70	107	43	69	106	43
South East (12)	77	55	26	48	71	34	62
Tasmania
Northern (91)	227	310	200	258	137	88	114
Midlands (93)	126	132	78	91	105	62	72
a Average from 1913 to 2009.

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology in its latest seasonal rainfall outlook (26 May 2009) for the winter period indicates a slight increase in the odds toward below average rainfall in the grain growing regions of Western Australia, South Australia, Victoria and south-west New South Wales. The chance of exceeding median rainfall is below 40 per cent in small pockets of Western Australia and ranges between 40 and 50 per cent in other areas.

The national outlook for maximum temperatures averaged over winter (June to August) shows a moderate to strong shift in the odds toward warmer than normal conditions across southern Australia, particularly in Western Australia. The chance that the average winter maximum temperature will exceed the long-term median is greater than 60 per cent across the southern half of Queensland, most of New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia. In Western Australia, the chance increases to between 70 and 80 per cent.

 

On 3 June 2009, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology announced the recent evolution of climate patterns across the equatorial Pacific is consistent with the early stages of an El Niño developing. El Niño events are usually (but not always) associated with below normal rainfall in the second half of the year across large parts of southern and inland eastern Australia. If realised the combination of above average temperatures, combined with below average rainfall, may negatively affect 2009-10 winter crop yields.

A number of organisations provide forecast yields for grains, including wheat and grain sorghum. The shire scale wheat forecasting system of the Queensland Primary Industries and Fisheries combines starting soil moisture conditions with the seasonal outlook including the most recent trend in the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). The probability of exceeding average wheat yields at the beginning of June (map 2) is highly variable across Australia. In Queensland the chance of exceeding long-term median yields ranges from 80 to 90 per cent in most of central Queensland. The chances are mostly around 50 per cent for southern Queensland. In New South Wales the chances of exceeding the long-term median yields vary throughout the state from 10 to 20 per cent in southern New South Wales to close to 100 per cent in northern New South Wales. Throughout Victoria the chances of exceeding long-term median yields are quite low varying between 10 and 30 per cent. In South Australia the chance of exceeding median yields is also highly variable, being between 10 and 70 per cent. Western Australia’s chance of exceeding long-term median yields is the most variable at between 10 and 100 per cent.

Winter crop production

The total area planted to winter grains is forecast to increase slightly in 2009-10, to around
21.9 million hectares (table b). Assuming an improvement in yields in 2009-10, total winter crop production is forecast to be 34.8 million tonnes, a 5 per cent increase from last year’s crop (table c).

Of the major winter grains, the area planted to wheat is forecast to fall marginally to 13.5 million hectares. Wheat production in 2009-10 is forecast to be around 22 million tonnes, a 3 per cent increase from the previous season. The area planted to barley is forecast to fall by 1 per cent to less than 4.5 million hectares. Barley production is forecast to increase to around 7.7 million tonnes in 2009-10, a 13 per cent increase on the 2008-09 harvest, reflecting an improvement in yields in Victoria and South Australia. The area planted to canola is forecast to increase by 7 per cent to slightly more than 1.2 million hectares. Total canola production is forecast at 1.7 million tonnes in 2009-10, a 9 per cent fall from the previous season, which reflects a forecast decline in Western Australian production.

B Winter crop area - Australia a
	New South Wales	Victoria	Queensland	Western Australia	South Australia	Australia
	000 ha	000 ha	000 ha	000 ha	000 ha	000 ha
1996-97	4 676	2 331	1 225	6 793	3 048	18 102
1997-98	4 543	2 315	1 213	7 141	3 047	18 260
1998-99	4 927	2 454	1 420	7 419	3 376	19 582
1999-00	4 955	2 670	1 337	7 464	3 342	19 763
2000-01	5 398	2 706	1 126	7 390	3 667	20 280
2001-02	5 309	2 684	788	7 173	3 866	19 817
2002-03	4 782	2 928	774	7 174	3 965	19 623
2003-04	6 070	3 126	1 039	7 689	4 034	21 982
2004-05	6 456	3 130	878	7 936	4 018	22 444
2005-06	5 554	2 908	967	7 390	3 882	20 728
2006-07	5 616	3 054	792	6 474	4 152	20 117
2007-08	6 315	3 397	879	7 262	4 142	21 954
2008-09  s	5 946	3 191	1 203	7 406	3 985	21 757
2009-10  f	6 148	3 114	1 322	7 304	3 970	21 879
% change 2008-09 to 2009-10	3	-2	10	-1	0	1
a State areas include wheat, barley, oats, canola, lupins, field peas, chickpeas, faba beans and lentils. Australian totals also include triticale, linseed and safflower. f ABARE forecast. s ABARE estimate.

C Winter crop production - Australia a
	New South Wales	Victoria	Queensland	Western Australia	South Australia	Australia
	Kt	Kt	Kt	Kt	Kt	Kt
1996-97	11 285	4 599	2 469	11 192	5 458	35 071
1997-98	8 558	3 398	1 637	12 097	5 360	31 116
1998-99	9 718	3 495	2 322	12 232	6 305	34 159
1999-00	11 495	5 139	2 222	13 311	4 751	36 981
2000-01	10 834	6 232	1 340	8 726	7 486	34 696
2001-02	11 171	5 873	1 142	12 050	8 927	39 240
2002-03	3 505	1 955	836	6 812	4 227	17 402
2003-04	10 768	6 945	1 473	16 683	7 450	43 395
2004-05	10 724	4 203	1 383	12 472	5 849	34 711
2005-06	11 867	6 170	1 426	13 922	7 518	40 985
2006-07	3 837	1 787	907	8 253	2 792	17 613
2007-08	4 000	4 711	1 195	10 750	4 713	25 433
2008-09  s	9 653	3 081	2 190	13 563	4 599	33 149
2009-10  f	9 823	5 189	2 104	11 415	6 169	34 771
% change 2008-09 to 2009-10	2	68	-4	-16	34	5
a State production include wheat, barley, oats, canola, lupins, field peas, chickpeas, faba beans and lentils. Australian totals also include triticale, linseed and safflowerseed. f ABARE forecast. s ABARE estimate.

Summer crop production

Summer cropping regions of northern New South Wales and southern Queensland received favourable rainfall throughout the majority of the season. Total summer crop area is estimated to have increased marginally in 2008-09, to slightly more than 1.1 million hectares. The area planted to grain sorghum is estimated to have declined as a result of a fall in feed grain prices and a reduction in the area of fallow land available at the time of sowing. Conversely, an improvement in water storage levels resulted in an increase in the area planted to both cotton and rice. Despite the increase, the area planted to both crops was low in historical terms, as the availability of irrigation water remains a critical issue for both industries. Total summer crop production is estimated to have fallen by 11 per cent to around 3.5 million tonnes (table d).

Grain sorghum production in 2008-09 is estimated to have fallen by 25 per cent to around
2.3 million tonnes. This fall reflects a 15 per cent decrease in the area sown and lower yields than the records achieved in 2007-08. The area planted to rice in 2008-09 is estimated to have been around 9000 hectares. Although this area remained in historic terms low, it was a significant improvement on the 2000 hectares planted in 2007-08. Total rice production is estimated at just less than 66 000 tonnes in 2008-09, which is around 48 000 tonnes more than produced in the previous season.

Australia’s 2008-09 cotton harvest is largely completed and increased supplies of irrigation water and improved cotton varieties have enabled better than average cotton yields to be achieved for both irrigated and dryland cotton. In 2008-09, Australian cotton lint and cottonseed production are both estimated to have been more than double the previous year’s production.

D Summer crop plantings and production - Australia a
	New South Wales			Queensland			Australia
	' 000 ha	Kt		' 000 ha	Kt		' 000 ha	Kt
1996-97	655	2 774		689	1 485		1 431	4 374
1997-98	617	2 588		640	1 139		1 335	3 823
1998-99	885	3 228		721	1 712		1 741	5 097
1999-00	742	2 882		771	2 031		1 591	5 025
2000-01	825	3 366		816	1 786		1 761	5 286
2001-02	777	3 146		794	1 772		1 633	4 933
2002-03	509	1 582		521	1 199		1 097	2 868
2003-04	436	1 766		708	1 806		1 211	3 679
2004-05	493	1 984		773	1 788		1 340	3 889
2005-06	760	2 765		615	1 512		1 442	4 387
2006-07	332	1 036		520	1 079		912	2 181
2007-08	359	1 590		675	2 163		1 108	3 866
2008-09 previous	380	1 394		672	1 785		1 126	3 279
2008-09 f	376	1 379		669	1 979		1 119	3 459
% change 2007-08 to 2008-09	5	-13		-1	-9		1	-11
a State production includes sorghum, rice, cottonseed, maize and sunflowers. Australian production also includes soybeans, peanuts, mung beans and navy beans. f ABARE forecast. s ABARE estimate. Note: Previous refers to the numbers published in the previous issue of the Australian Crop Report.