Australian crop report – 15 September 2009

Overview

• Winter cropping regions in Western Australia, South Australia, southern New South Wales and Victoria received average to above average winter rainfall. Conversely, most of Queensland and northern New South Wales received below to very much below average winter rainfall, with August being a particularly dry month across both states. The lack of rainfall was combined with above average temperatures, meaning many crops in both states were suffering moisture stress as they headed into the critical spring growth phase.
• Widespread rainfall in the first week of September arrived just in time for many crops in central and northern New South Wales and southern Queensland. However, further spring rainfall will be critical for production forecasts to be realised. Crops in southern New South Wales are in urgent need of good rains, with some having already failed and the yield potential of most others declining rapidly.
• The Australian Bureau of Meteorology, in its latest seasonal rainfall outlook (26 August 2009) for the September to November period, indicates there is a moderate to strong shift in the odds toward below average spring rainfall across parts of eastern and southern Australia. However, there is an increased chance of above average spring rainfall for south-west Western Australia.
• Total winter crop production in 2009-10 is forecast to be around 36 million tonnes. This is an upward revision from ABARE’s June 2009 forecast of 34.8 million tonnes. Dry seasonal conditions have resulted in a downward revision of forecast production for both New South Wales and Queensland. However, this has been more than offset by upward revisions for Victoria, South Australia and Western Australia, which reflects timely seasonal rainfall. The total area sown to winter crops in 2009-10 is estimated to have increased by 2 per cent to 22.2 million hectares.
• Of the major winter crops, wheat production is forecast at 22.7 million tonnes in 2009-10. This is an upward revision of around 750 000 tonnes from ABARE’s June 2009 forecast, reflecting forecast increased production in Victoria, South Australia and Western Australia. Conversely, forecast production in New South Wales and Queensland has been revised down. Barley production in 2009-10 is forecast at 7.9 million tonnes. Canola production is forecast at 1.7 million tonnes, which is an 8 per cent decline from last season’s harvest, reflecting an expected decline in yields, particularly in Western Australia.
• Total summer crop area is forecast to fall by 5 per cent to slightly more than 1 million hectares in 2009-10. Below to very much below average winter rainfall in key growing regions in northern New South Wales and southern Queensland is forecast to result in a decline in grain sorghum plantings. The availability of irrigation water remains a critical issue for cotton and rice.

Rainfall

The Bureau of Meteorology map of winter rainfall (June to August 2009) illustrates that winter rainfall over the grains belt was mixed (map 1). Most of Western Australia, South Australia and Victoria received average to above average winter rainfall. The majority of southern and central New South Wales also received average rainfall. However, most of northern New South Wales and Queensland received below to very much below average winter rainfall.

Details of rainfall received in the April to August growing period are provided in table A.

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology, in its latest seasonal rainfall outlook (26 August 2009) for the September to November period, indicates there is a moderate to strong shift in the odds favouring below average spring rainfall across parts of eastern and southern Australia. However, there is an increased chance of above average spring rainfall for south-west Western Australia.

For spring, the chance of exceeding average rainfall is less than 40 per cent across the northern half of Queensland, southern New South Wales west of the Great Divide, much of South Australia and Victoria, and large parts of Tasmania. Chances drop to around 25 per cent in vast areas of the South Australian grains belt. In contrast, the chances of exceeding average spring rainfall are between 60 per cent and 65 per cent throughout south-west Western Australia.

The national outlook for maximum temperatures over spring shows a moderate to strong shift in the odds toward warmer than normal conditions across most of Australia. The chance of average spring maximum temperatures exceeding the long-term average is more than 60 per cent across most of the continent, with 65 per cent chances in northern New South Wales and 70 to 85 per cent across Queensland.

A April - August rainfall in major grain growing regions
	average a	2007	2008	2009	2007	2008	2009
	mm	mm	mm	mm	% of average	% of average	% of average
Queensland
Central Highlands (35)	145	162	121	107	112	83	74
Maranoa (43)	156	133	106	138	85	68	89
West Darling Downs (42)	162	157	124	177	97	77	109
East Darling Downs (41)	192	181	119	183	94	62	95
Moreton South Coast (40)	333	290	258	384	87	77	115
New South Wales
North West Plains (W) (52)	168	157	123	161	93	73	96
North West Plains (E) (53)	195	191	131	171	98	67	88
North West Slopes (N) (54)	208	221	130	163	106	63	78
North West Slopes (S) (55)	221	262	180	166	119	82	75
Northern Tablelands (N) (56)	239	272	174	274	114	73	115
Central West Plains (S) (50)	185	174	116	168	94	63	91
Central West Plains (N) (51)	175	144	107	183	82	61	105
Central West Slopes (N) (64)	223	255	153	149	114	69	67
Central West Slopes (S) (65)	235	232	157	190	99	67	81
Central Tablelands (N) (62)	234	337	176	170	144	75	73
Central Tablelands (S) (63)	331	346	203	271	104	61	82
Riverina (W) (75)	155	133	98	142	86	63	92
Riverina (E) (74)	208	163	128	170	79	62	82
South West Slopes (N) (73)	259	229	180	234	88	69	90
South West Slopes (S) (72)	386	312	275	377	81	71	98
Southern Tablelands (GM)(70)	255	299	160	203	117	63	80
Victoria
North Mallee (76)	139	154	114	142	111	82	102
South Mallee (77)	163	168	132	175	103	81	107
North Wimmera (78)	198	188	154	216	95	78	109
South Wimmera (79)	257	263	208	292	102	81	113
Lower North (80)	197	166	133	165	84	67	84
Upper North (81)	243	223	177	219	92	73	90
Lower North East (82)	391	359	299	395	92	77	101
Upper North East (83)	546	445	333	395	82	61	72
North Central (88)	354	307	254	275	87	72	78
Central Western (89)	295	305	238	301	103	81	102
South Australia
Upper South East (25B)	224	216	203	237	97	91	106
Murray Mallee (25A)	146	141	130	107	97	89	73
Murray River (24)	160	145	150	159	91	94	99
East Central (23)	339	301	299	347	89	88	102
West Central (22)	252	279	256	339	111	101	134
Lower North (21)	228	173	203	228	76	89	100
Upper North (19)	158	97	121	129	61	77	82
Western (18)	187	117	116	158	63	62	85
Western Australia
North Coast (8)	277	146	231	244	53	83	88
Central Coast (9)	608	430	461	437	71	76	72
Northern Central (10)	232	158	207	199	68	89	86
South Coast (9A)	602	459	478	462	76	79	77
South Central (10A)	271	218	248	204	80	91	75
South East (12)	130	73	75	98	56	58	76
Tasmania
Northern (91)	525	534	436	721	102	83	137
Midlands (93)	229	199	150	380	87	65	166
a Average from 1913 to 2009.

Spring minimum temperatures are also forecast to be warmer than average across most of the country, with the exception of Tasmania and areas east of the Great Divide. The chances of increased minimum temperatures are between 60 per cent and 80 per cent over most of Australia, and more than 80 per cent in parts of Western Australia.

If the seasonal outlook from the Bureau of Meteorology is realised, it is likely to have a negative effect on yields, particularly in the southern and eastern states.

A number of organisations provide forecast yields for grains, including wheat and sorghum. The shire scale wheat forecasting system of the Queensland Department of Primary Industries and Fisheries combines starting soil moisture conditions with the seasonal outlook, including the most recent trend in the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). The probability of exceeding average wheat yields at the beginning of September (map 2) is close to average in most regions, with the exception of large areas of Queensland, parts of central New South Wales and central Victoria.

Almost the entire central Queensland and south-west Queensland cropping region show a forecast median yield much below the long-term average (20 to 40 per cent below). Most areas in south-east Queensland have forecast yields similar to the long-term average. In New South Wales, the chances of exceeding long-term average yields is close to average throughout the state, with the exception of parts of north-west New South Wales and the central west, where yields are forecast to be 20 to 40 per cent below average. Throughout Victoria, the chances of exceeding long-term median yields are around average, with the exception of parts of the southern Mallee and central north, where yields are forecast to be 20 to 40 per cent below average. In both South Australia and Western Australia, the chances of exceeding median yields are average throughout the entire winter cropping region.

Winter crop production

Winter cropping regions in Western Australia, South Australia and Victoria received average to above average winter rainfall. Conversely, most of Queensland and northern New South Wales received below to very much below average winter rainfall, with August being a particularly dry month across both states. The lack of rainfall, combined with above average temperatures, have resulted in crops in many areas of the two states (including southern and central New South Wales) suffering moisture stress in the critical spring growth phase.

Total winter crop production in 2009-10 is forecast to be around 36 million tonnes (table B). This is an upward revision from ABARE’s June 2009 forecast of 34.8 million tonnes. Dry seasonal conditions have resulted in a downward revision of forecast production for both New South Wales and Queensland. However, this has been more than offset by upward revisions for Victoria, South Australia and Western Australia. The total area sown to winter crops in 2009-10 is estimated to have increased by 2 per cent to slightly more than 22.2 million hectares (table C).

B Winter crop production - Australia a
	New South Wales	Victoria	Queensland	Western Australia	South Australia	Australia
	Kt	Kt	Kt	Kt	Kt	Kt
1997-98	8 558	3 398	1 637	12 097	5 360	31 116
1998-99	9 718	3 495	2 322	12 232	6 305	34 159
1999-00	11 495	5 139	2 222	13 311	4 751	36 981
2000-01	10 834	6 232	1 340	8 726	7 486	34 696
2001-02	11 171	5 873	1 142	12 050	8 927	39 240
2002-03	3 505	1 955	836	6 812	4 227	17 402
2003-04	10 768	6 945	1 473	16 683	7 450	43 395
2004-05	10 724	4 203	1 383	12 472	5 849	34 711
2005-06	11 867	6 170	1 426	13 922	7 518	40 985
2006-07	3 837	1 787	907	8 253	2 792	17 613
2007-08	4 000	4 711	1 195	10 750	4 713	25 433
2008-09  s	9 653	3 081	2 190	13 563	4 599	33 149
2009-10  previous	9 823	5 189	2 104	11 415	6 169	34 771
2009-10  f	9 123	5 549	1 687	12 977	6 549	35 961
% change 2008-09 to 2009-10	-5	80	-23	-4	42	8
a State production includes wheat, barley, oats, canola, lupins, field peas, chickpeas, faba beans and lentils. Australian totals also include triticale, linseed and safflowerseed. f ABARE forecast. s ABARE estimate. Note: Previous refers to the numbers published in the previous issue of the Australian crop report.

Of the major winter crops, wheat production is forecast to increase by around 6 per cent to 22.7 million tonnes in 2009-10. Barley production in 2009-10 is forecast to be around 7.9 million tonnes, a 16 per cent increase from the previous season. Canola production is forecast at around 1.7 million tonnes in 2009-10, 8 per cent less last seasons harvest, reflecting an expected decline in yields, particularly in Western Australia.

C Winter crop area - Australia a
	New South Wales	Victoria	Queensland	Western Australia	South Australia	Australia
	000 ha	000 ha	000 ha	000 ha	000 ha	000 ha
1997-98	4 543	2 315	1 213	7 141	3 047	18 260
1998-99	4 927	2 454	1 420	7 419	3 376	19 582
1999-00	4 955	2 670	1 337	7 464	3 342	19 763
2000-01	5 398	2 706	1 126	7 390	3 667	20 280
2001-02	5 309	2 684	788	7 173	3 866	19 817
2002-03	4 782	2 928	774	7 174	3 965	19 623
2003-04	6 070	3 126	1 039	7 689	4 034	21 982
2004-05	6 456	3 130	878	7 936	4 018	22 444
2005-06	5 554	2 908	967	7 390	3 882	20 728
2006-07	5 616	3 054	792	6 474	4 152	20 117
2007-08	6 315	3 397	879	7 262	4 142	21 954
2008-09  s	5 946	3 191	1 203	7 406	3 985	21 757
2009-10  previous	6 148	3 114	1 322	7 304	3 970	21 879
2009-10  f	6 120	3 170	1 348	7 528	4 020	22 207
% change 2008-09 to 2009-10	3	-1	12	2	1	2
a State areas include wheat, barley, oats, canola, lupins, field peas, chickpeas, faba beans and lentils. Australian totals also include triticale, linseed and safflower. f ABARE forecast. s ABARE estimate. Note: Previous refers to the numbers published in the previous issue of the Australian crop report.

Summer crop production

Total summer crop area is forecast to fall by around 5 per cent to slightly more than 1 million hectares in 2009-10 (table D). Below to very much below average winter rainfall in key growing regions of northern New South Wales and southern Queensland is forecast to result in a decline in the area planted to grain sorghum. Availability of irrigation water remains a critical issue for cotton and rice. Total summer crop production is forecast to fall by 16 per cent to around 2.9 million tonnes in 2009-10, reflecting a forecast decline in grain sorghum production.

Australian cotton plantings in 2009-10 are forecast to increase by 19 per cent in 2009-10, to 195 000 hectares. The increase reflects an improvement in irrigation water availability compared with last year and that irrigated cotton delivers a higher gross margin per megalitre of water used than alternative irrigated summer crops. Cotton lint and cottonseed production in 2009-10 are forecast at 375 000 tonnes and 531 000 tonnes, respectively.

With a continued lack of irrigation water for rice growing, the area planted to rice in 2009-10 is forecast to remain similar to the small area planted in 2008-09, at around 8000 hectares.

At this early stage of the season, the total area planted to grain sorghum is forecast at 662 000 hectares in 2009-10, which is an 8 per cent decline from the area sown last year, reflecting below to very much below average winter rainfall in key growing regions. However, additional plantings are possible in 2009-10 if higher than currently expected rainfall is received between now and the end of the planting window. Assuming average yields, grain sorghum production in 2009-10 is forecast to decline by 20 per cent to 1.9 million tonnes.

D Summer crop plantings and production - Australia a
	New South Wales			Queensland			Australia
	' 000 ha	Kt		' 000 ha	Kt		' 000 ha	Kt
1996-97	655	2 774		689	1 485		1 431	4 374
1997-98	617	2 588		640	1 139		1 335	3 823
1998-99	885	3 228		721	1 712		1 741	5 097
1999-00	742	2 882		771	2 031		1 591	5 025
2000-01	825	3 366		816	1 786		1 761	5 286
2001-02	777	3 146		794	1 772		1 633	4 933
2002-03	509	1 582		521	1 199		1 097	2 868
2003-04	436	1 766		708	1 806		1 211	3 679
2004-05	493	1 984		773	1 788		1 340	3 889
2005-06	760	2 765		615	1 512		1 442	4 387
2006-07	332	1 036		520	1 079		912	2 181
2007-08	378	1 650		756	2 826		1 205	4 584
2008-09 s	371	1 380		672	1 998		1 118	3 487
2009-10 f	369	1 235		620	1 618		1 060	2 944
% change 2008-09 to 2009-10	-1	-10		-8	-19		-5	-16
a State production includes sorghum, rice, cottonseed, maize and sunflowers. Australian production also includes soybeans, peanuts, mung beans and navy beans. f ABARE forecast. s ABARE estimate.