Severe rainfall deficiencies have occurred over most cropping regions of Australia during 2006, particularly from August, with a near total lack of rainfall in late winter to mid spring.
On average, it was the driest August–October period since 1900 in South Australia, the second driest in Victoria and the Murray Darling Basin, and the third driest for New South Wales, where the average was boosted by above average falls along the state’s north coast. The lack of rainfall over this period was combined with above average temperatures. In many areas, mean maximum temperatures were the highest on record.
Australian winter grains production is forecast to decline by around 62 per cent in 2006-07 to total 15.5 million tonnes, the lowest production in over ten years, reflecting the extreme conditions.
Winter crop production in central and southern New South Wales declined over the growing season, with below to very much below average rainfall over the April–October period, combined with above average spring temperatures. In northern New South Wales, average winter rainfall was received, resulting in higher yielding crops in that area. However, prospects for the major summer crops, cotton and rice, are not favorable because of a lack of irrigation water. The outlook for grain sorghum production is highly dependent on further summer rainfall, which is needed to replenish soil moisture profiles.
Winter crops in Victoria were under extreme moisture stress for nearly the entire winter growing period. At the same time, Victoria also recorded the highest maximum spring temperatures since records began. Yields are estimated to be below to very much below average in most areas.
Throughout most of southern Queensland, the dry start to the season resulted in very few winter crop planting opportunities. However, good planting rainfalls followed by favorable growing conditions in central Queensland resulted in the vast majority of Queensland’s winter grains harvest coming from that region. The area planted to grain sorghum in Queensland is forecast to remain similar to last year’s area. However, subsoil moisture needs significant replenishment before summer crop planting intentions can be realised. It is likely that some planting will be held off until late January to avoid flowering during the heat of summer.
The northern part of the Western Australian grains belt had a poor start to the season and the area sown to winter crops was reduced considerably. Production in that region is estimated to have been around 20 per cent of average. In the central and southern regions, seasonal conditions were more favorable and crop yields are expected to be close to average.
After a promising start to the winter cropping season, prospects in South Australia declined significantly over the growing season. Winter rainfall varied from below average to very much below average in most areas, with many areas having their lowest rainfall on record. The lack of rain was combined with above average maximum temperatures in most districts and light frosts, which resulted in yield prospects declining sharply.
Of the major winter crops, the area planted to wheat in 2006-07 is estimated to have been 14 per cent below last year’s, at 11.1 million hectares. Production is estimated to decline by around 61 per cent to 9.7 million tonnes. Barley production is estimated to decline to around 3.7 million tonnes, a 63 per cent drop from the previous season. Canola production is also estimated to fall to around 426 000 tonnes, the lowest in ten years.
Total summer crop area is forecast to decline by 25 per cent to 1.2 million hectares in 2006-07. In southern Queensland, northern New South Wales and the Riverina, below average winter and spring rainfall has depleted soil moisture profiles and water storage levels, severely limiting summer crop production prospects. Assuming average summer rainfall, summer crop production is forecast to fall by 33 per cent in 2006-07, to around 3.1 million tonnes, with most of the reduction being in cotton and rice.
Well below average spring rainfall and high seasonal temperatures have severely limited spring pasture growth in South Australia, New South Wales and south east Queensland, resulting in increased demand for livestock feed. This combined with significantly reduced winter crop production means that grain and fodder stocks held on farm will assume increased importance as part of producers’ strategies for feeding livestock until autumn 2007.
ABS reported that at the end of October, total quantity of grain held in storage facilities operated by the major bulk handling companies was 13.2 million tonnes, of which 9.84 million tonnes was wheat and 2.16 million tonnes was barley.
Results from ABARE’s broadacre farm survey of fodder and grain stocks held on farm, conducted in October and November 2006, are included in this report.
three month rainfall outlook
Rainfall across most of Australia throughout the entire winter grain growing period was below the long term average. Details of rainfall received in the April–October period are provided in table A.
The Australian Bureau of Meteorology in its latest (23 November 2006) seasonal rainfall outlook for the summer period indicates that for most of the country the chances of accumulating at least average rainfall during the coming three months are close to 50 per cent. (Click here for map)
There is a moderate to strong shift in the odds toward above normal daytime temperatures for summer (December–February) over much of eastern and northern Australia, according to the Bureau of Meteorology. (Click here for map)
A April - October rainfall in major grain growing regions
Averaged over summer, there is a 60–75 per cent probability of higher than normal maximum temperatures across all of Queensland and most of New South Wales. The chances of summer minimum temperatures being higher than the median are 60–85 per cent for Queensland, and the northern half of New South Wales.
summer crop production
Total summer crop area is forecast to decline by 25 per cent to 1.2 million hectares in 2006-07 (table B). In southern Queensland, northern New South Wales and the Riverina, below average winter and spring rainfall has resulted in depleted soil moisture profiles and water storage levels (table C), severely limiting summer crop production prospects. Assuming average summer rainfall, summer crop production is forecast to fall by 33 per cent to 3.1 million tonnes in 2006-07.
The lack of irrigation water for rice growing in 2006-07 means the area planted to rice is estimated to be only 20 000 hectares — 81 per cent below the area planted last year. Further cuts to water allocations after planting are expected to have a significant impact on rice production in 2006-07, as some planted area is likely to be abandoned. The area sown to cotton is forecast to decline by 55 per cent to around 150 000 hectares in 2006-07, the smallest area sown to cotton in twenty years.
The total area planted to grain sorghum is forecast to be 802 000 hectares in 2006-07, 10 per cent less than the record area sown last year. There is likely to be an increase in the area of fallow land available for summer cropping in southern Queensland following the reduction in planting of winter crops in 2006. However, with below average winter rainfall followed by an extremely dry spring, further rainfall will be needed for planting intentions to be realised in most districts. In these areas, subsoil moisture levels will need to be significantly replenished before a summer crop can be planted with confidence. Assuming average yields, total grain sorghum production is forecast to reach around 2 million tonnes in 2006-07.
BAustralian summer crop plantings and production a
New South Wales
Queensland
Australia
' 000 ha
Mt
' 000 ha
Mt
' 000 ha
Mt
1994-95
527
2.25
727
1.31
1317
3.63
1995-96
576
2.30
802
1.58
1466
3.98
1996-97
655
2.78
689
1.49
1431
4.37
1997-98
617
2.60
640
1.14
1335
3.82
1998-99
885
3.24
721
1.71
1741
5.10
1999-2000
742
2.90
770
2.03
1589
5.03
2000-01
827
3.38
816
1.79
1761
5.29
2001-02
777
3.15
794
1.77
1639
5.02
2002-03
509
1.58
521
1.20
1096
2.87
2003-04
436
1.77
708
1.81
1211
3.68
2004-05
496
2.00
773
1.79
1340
3.89
2005-06 s
736
2.78
765
1.65
1581
4.54
2006-07 f
470
1.43
646
1.53
1186
3.06
% change
-36
-48
-15
-7
-25
-33
a State production includes sorghum, rice, cottonseed, maize and sunflowers. Australian production also includes soybeans, peanuts, mung beans and navy beans. s ABARE estimate. f ABARE forecast
The Queensland Department of Primary Industries’ Agricultural Production SystemsResearch Unit has mapped long term median grain sorghum yields (map 1). In map 2, soil moisture conditions, rainfall and the seasonal outlook have been combined to estimate the probability of exceeding average yields. This information provides background to the development of the summer crop forecasts.
The outlook at the beginning of December (map 2) reveals that the probability of yields exceeding the long term median across most of the grain sorghum growing regions of southern Queensland and northern New South Wales is 0–40 per cent (colored orange, yellow and red), although there are some pockets (colored green) that have a much higher chance of exceeding median yields. In central Queensland the chances are closer to average (colored grey).
winter crop production
Reflecting one of the driest winter cropping seasons on record in 2006-07, winter grains production is forecast to decline by around 62 per cent to total 15.5 million tonnes (table D). The decline in production is expected to reflect below average yields and a reduced area planted in most states.
Of the major winter grains, wheat production is estimated to fall by around 61 per cent to 9.7 million tonnes in 2006-07. Barley production in 2006-07 is estimated to fall by 63 per cent to 3.7 million tonnes. Canola production is estimated to be around 426 000 tonnes, a 70 per cent fall from the previous season and the lowest production in over ten years.
The largest declines in production are expected to occur in Victoria and New South Wales. Reflecting the extremely poor conditions, production of winter grains in Victoria is estimated to have declined by 76 per cent and in New South Wales by 72 per cent. These harvests will be the lowest in over ten years in New South Wales and over twenty years in Victoria.
Although total winter crop production is forecast to decline in New South Wales and Queensland, there are areas in both states where seasonal conditions have been reasonable. Central Queensland and northern New South Wales are both estimated to have achieved average to above average winter crop production.
DAustralian winter crop production a
New South Wales
Victoria
Queensland
Western
Australia
South
Australia
Australia
Mt
Mt
Mt
Mt
Mt
Mt
1994-95
1.47
1.80
0.31
7.91
2.98
14.70
1995-96
6.74
4.35
0.74
10.22
5.16
27.79
1996-97
11.27
4.55
2.59
11.32
5.36
35.85
1997-98
8.29
3.21
1.63
12.06
5.22
31.12
1998-99
9.52
3.56
2.57
12.12
6.24
34.74
1999-2000
11.07
4.86
2.22
13.30
4.63
36.94
2000-01
10.50
5.91
1.34
8.70
7.33
34.70
2001-02
10.83
5.57
1.14
12.01
8.75
39.27
2002-03
3.37
1.84
0.83
6.79
4.15
17.40
2003-04
10.46
6.64
1.47
16.61
7.29
43.40
2004-05
10.42
3.99
1.38
12.93
5.26
34.71
2005-06 s
11.17
5.69
1.68
14.26
7.18
40.75
2006-07 s
3.10
1.37
0.87
7.46
2.34
15.50
% change
-72
-76
-48
-48
-67
-62
a State areas include wheat, barley, oats, canola, lupins, field peas, chickpea, faba beans and lentils. Australian totals also include triticale, linseed, safflower and vetch. s ABARE estimate.
ABARE’s telephone survey of broadacre farms undertaken in October and November revealed that seasonal conditions have deteriorated to the point where around 60 per cent of those surveyed reported the existence of drought conditions. This was similar to the proportion of producers reporting drought conditions in October 2002 at the beginning of the major drought in 2002-03.
Pasture production was generally very poor during the spring of 2006. Consequently, grain stocks held on farm assume increased importance as part of producer strategies for feeding livestock until autumn 2007.
At the beginning of the 2006-07 financial year, broadacre farmers held an average of 270 tonnes of grain on farm (table E). Stocks were distributed fairly evenly between the states.
In the three months to 30 September, on-farm stocks fell significantly as producers took advantage of the rise in grains prices to sell some of their stocks while continuing to feed grain to livestock. Grain stocks fell by more than 75 per cent over that period.
As reported earlier, winter crop production in 2006-07 has been greatly affected by the poor spring seasonal conditions. Even though the returns from selling grain are currently very attractive, broadacre producers have indicated that they intend to add some of the grain produced in 2006-07 to on-farm stocks. This grain will be available for later sale, seed, or could be fed to livestock. The addition to stocks from 2006-07 production is expected to be greatest in Western Australia and Queensland, the states that recorded the best harvest outcomes.
However, with the exception of Western Australia, the amount of grain expected to be held on-farm that would be available for feed between October 2006 and June 2007 is lower than the quantity of on-farm stocks at the beginning of the financial year. Given the demand among livestock producers in states other than Western Australia for feed grains, this indicates the feed grain market is currently, and is likely to continue to be, very tight.
E on–farm stocks of grain, Australian broadacre farms
on-farm grain stocks
expected addition
to stocks from
grain available
for feed from Oct
1-Jul-06
30-Sep-06
2006-07 production
2006 to June 2007
tonnes
tonnes
tonnes
tonnes
New South Wales
295
58
84
142
Victoria
284
178
59
237
Queensland
222
18
148
166
South Australia
256
50
109
160
Western Australia
289
64
263
327
Tasmania
244
18
23
41
Australia a
269
62
116
177
a Excludes the Northern Territory. Source: ABARE farm surveys – preliminary estimates.
