victoria For the four month period June–September 2007, an area of serious to severe rainfall deficiency covered most of northern Victoria. September was dry across Victoria, with average rainfall being less than half the monthly average in most districts. Northern Victoria also had no effective rainfall in October. The prolonged dry period was accompanied by above average daytime temperatures, resulting in significant yield penalties across the northern Wimmera and Mallee regions. The southern half of the grains belt received occasional light rainfall in October, which improved prospects in those regions. Cooler temperatures in early November and few very hot days offered some relief for crops and have helped yields. Harvest is nearing completion in both the Wimmera and the Mallee, with significant variability in yields both between regions and within them. Overall, the harvest will be well below average. However, given that there was no significant rainfall from July onwards, grain fill has been surprisingly good in many areas, with yields proving to be much better than preharvest expectations. In crop rainfall, soil type and time of sowing have been the major factors in determining yield outcomes. In the Mallee, crops on sandy soils are estimated to be yielding around 50–80 per cent of average, while crops planted in heavy soils will be low yielding or too poor to justify harvesting. Crop conditions across the Wimmera vary from very good to total crop failure. Pockets in the southern Wimmera have yield potential of 4–5 tonnes per hectare, whereas yield potential is 0–3 tonnes per hectare in areas where conditions have been drier. Crops in most areas of the south west appear to be in good condition. The area sown to winter crops in Victoria is estimated to have increased by 12 per cent in 2007-08 to just over 3 million hectares, reflecting the promising start to the season. Total winter crop production is estimated to reach around 3.7 million tonnes, which is more than double production last season but well below initial expectations. The area planted to wheat in Victoria is estimated to have risen by 20 per cent to around 1.5 million hectares in 2007-08, reflecting the early break in the season. Production is estimated at around 1.9 million tonnes, almost three times the level produced in 2006-07, reflecting the increased area sown, combined with improved yields. The area planted to barley in Victoria in 2007-08 is estimated to have been 920 000 hectares, an 8 per cent rise from the previous year. Production is estimated at just over 1.1 million tonnes, more than double production in the previous season. The area planted to canola is estimated to have increased by 27 per cent to 270 000 hectares in 2007-08, reflecting the ideal start to the season. Canola production is estimated at 225 000 tonnes in 2007-08, five times what was produced last season but well below early season expectations. victoria winter crop estimates, 2007-08 area yield a production production change from 2006-07 ‘000 ha t/ha kt % wheat 1 500 1.27 1 900 192 barley 920 1.22 1 125 121 canola 270 0.83 225 436 a Yields are based on area planted.