» Severe ongoing drought conditions experienced throughout the major cropping areas of Australia, particularly since August 2006, have resulted in significant depletions of soil moisture profiles and have led to some of the lowest water storage levels on record. As a result the total summer crop area is estimated to have declined by around 53 per cent in 2006-07, to 743 000 hectares.

» After an extremely dry spring, the continuation of drought conditions throughout December and January in southern Queensland, northern New South Wales and the Riverina are forecast to result in a 59 per cent fall in summer crop production in 2006-07 to around 1.9 million tonnes, the smallest in over twenty years.

» The lack of irrigation water for rice growing in 2006-07 has resulted in the area planted to rice falling to 12 000 hectares — 89 per cent below the area planted in the previous year. Similarly, the area sown to cotton in 2006-07 is estimated to be 57 per cent lower than that planted in 2005-06, at around 143 000 hectares, the smallest area sown to cotton since 1983-84. In both industries, growers have been abandoning parts of their crops and using their reduced water allocations on smaller areas in an effort to maximise returns from the remaining crops.

» Sowing conditions for grain sorghum crops were less than ideal, and rainfall during December and January was generally well below average. The total area planted to grain sorghum in 2006-07 is estimated to be 427 000 hectares, 52 per cent less than the record area sown in the previous year. The exception is central Queensland, where average to above average rainfall in January and early February prompted further planting and boosted yield potential. Overall, grain sorghum production in Australia is forecast to fall by 51 per cent to around 996 000 tonnes in 2006-07

» Reflecting one of the driest winter cropping seasons on record, winter crop production in Australia in 2006-07 is estimated to have fallen by around 61 per cent to 15.7 million tonnes, making it the smallest winter grains crop since 1994-95, when 14.7 million tonnes were produced.

» Of the major winter grains, wheat production is estimated to have fallen by 61 per cent to 9.8 million tonnes and barley by 62 per cent to 3.7 million tonnes. Canola production is estimated to have fallen by 64 per cent to 513 000 tonnes in 2006-07. Production of lupins is estimated to have fallen by around 84 per cent in 2006-07 to 174 000 tonnes, similar to that produced in 1982-83.

three month rainfall outlook

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology in its latest seasonal rainfall outlook (23 January 2007) indicates that there is an increased chance of above average rainfall for the late summer to mid-autumn period (February–April) in a band stretching from north west Western Australia to western Victoria (click here for map). The chances of accumulating at least median rainfall during February–April are close to 50 per cent across the rest of the country.

table a summer crop plantings and production – Australia a New South Wales Queensland Australia ‘000 ha Mt ‘000 ha Mt ‘000 ha Mt 1994-95 527 2.25 727 1.31 1317 3.63 1995-96 576 2.3 802 1.58 1466 3.98 1996-97 655 2.78 689 1.49 1431 4.37 1997-98 617 2.6 640 1.14 1335 3.82 1998-99 885 3.24 721 1.71 1741 5.1 1999-2000 742 2.9 770 2.03 1589 5.03 2000-01 827 3.38 816 1.79 1761 5.29 2001-02 777 3.15 794 1.77 1639 5.02 2002-03 509 1.58 521 1.2 1096 2.87 2003-04 436 1.77 708 1.81 1211 3.68 2004-05 496 2 773 1.79 1340 3.89 2005-06 s 736 2.78 765 1.65 1581 4.54 2006-07 f 313 0.93 361 0.84 743 1.87 % change 2005-06 to  2006-07 –57 –66 –53 –49 –53 –59 a State production includes sorghum, rice, cottonseed, maize and sunflowers. Australian production also includes soybeans, peanuts, mung beans and navy beans. s ABARE estimate. f ABARE forecast.

The chances of exceeding median rainfall in February–April are 60–75 per cent over north west and central Western Australia, and 60–65 per cent in southern South Australia, western Victoria and a small part of northern Tasmania. The chances are around 55 per cent for parts of south west New South Wales. In contrast the chances are slightly below average (45 per cent) for parts of central and southern Queensland.

The temperature outlook for February–April shows contrasting odds across the country — warmer than average conditions are expected across much of northern and eastern Australia, whereas a cooler than normal period is more likely for parts of western and southern Australia (click here for map).

summer crop production

Total summer crop area is estimated at 743 000 hectares in 2006-07, around 53 per cent below the area planted in 2005-06 (table A). In southern Queensland, northern New South Wales and the Riverina, below average winter and spring rainfall resulted in depleted soil moisture profiles and water storages (table B), severely limiting summer crop plantings. With the continuation of drought conditions throughout December and January, total summer crop production is forecast to decline by 59 per cent to around 1.9 million tonnes.

table b water storage and availability Capacity  Jan 2006  Jan 2007 GL % of capacity % of capacity Southern Queensland Beardmore 82 71 13 Fairbairn 1301 27 14 Glenlyon 254 23 18 Leslie 106 12 10 Northern New South Wales Copeton 1362 32 12 Keepit 426 44 5 Pindari 312 65 34 Southern New South Wales and Victoria Blowering 1631 67 15 Burrendong 1188 43 8 Burrinjuck 1026 73 28 Dartmouth 3906 62 25 Hume 3038 91 3 Menindee Lakes 1731 26 7 Wyangala 1220 33 9

The lack of irrigation water for rice growing in 2006-07 has resulted in the estimated area planted to rice falling to 12 000 hectares — 89 per cent below the area planted last year. Cuts to water allocations after planting have had a significant impact on rice production in 2006-07, as some planted areas had to be abandoned. Total rice production is forecast to fall by 90 per cent, to around 106 000 tonnes. The area sown to cotton in 2006-07 is estimated at 143 000 hectares, the smallest area since 1983-84.

The total area planted to grain sorghum is estimated to be 427 000 hectares in 2006-07, 52 per cent less than the record area sown last year. In northern New South Wales and southern Queensland, summer rainfall has been well below average and very patchy, which has resulted in crops suffering from moisture stress. Early sown crops have been severely moisture stressed in most areas, except where isolated storms have fallen. Some crops have been grazed off or cut for hay. The exception is central Queensland, where average to above average rainfall in January and early February prompted further planting and boosted yield potential for early sown crops.

The Queensland Department of Primary Industries’ Agricultural Production Systems Research Unit has mapped long term median grain sorghum yields — as shown in map 1. In map 2, soil moisture conditions, rainfall and the seasonal outlook have been combined in order to estimate the probability of exceeding average yields. This information provides background to the development of the summer crop estimates.

The information in map 2 reveals that the probability of yields exceeding the long term median across most of the grain sorghum growing regions of New South Wales and southern Queensland is very low — at around 0–10 per cent (coloured red). The probability of yields exceeding the long term median across grain sorghum growing regions of central Queensland is much higher, 50–100 per cent.

At present, most areas in central Queensland show a low chance of yields falling in the worst 10 per cent of all years. However, most areas in southern Queensland and northern New South Wales show a moderate to high chance of yields falling in the worst 10 per cent of all years.

winter crop production

Total Australian winter crop production is estimated to be 15.7 million tonnes in 2006-07, around a 61 per cent reduction on the previous season and the smallest winter crop since 1994-95 (table C).

The biggest falls in production occurred in Victoria and New South Wales, down around 76 per cent and 73 per cent respectively to 1.4 million tonnes and 3.1 million tonnes. It has been the lowest winter crop harvest in New South Wales since 1994-95 when only 1.5 million tonnes of winter crops were harvested. Winter crop production in South Australia declined by around 65 per cent, to 2.5 million tonnes, the smallest winter crop produced since 1982-83.

Of the major winter grains, wheat production is estimated to have fallen by around 61 per cent to 9.8 million tonnes in 2006-07. Barley production is estimated at 3.7 million tonnes, a 62 per cent fall from the previous season. Canola production is estimated to have declined by around 64 per cent to 513 000 tonnes. Lupin production is estimated to have fallen by 84 per cent to 174 000 tonnes, similar to the level of production in 1982-83.

table c winter crop production – Australia a New South Wales Victoria Queensland Western Australia South Australia Australia Mt Mt Mt Mt Mt Mt 1994-95 1.47 1.8 0.31 7.91 2.98 14.7 1995-96 6.74 4.35 0.74 10.22 5.16 27.79 1996-97 11.27 4.55 2.59 11.32 5.36 35.85 1997-98 8.29 3.21 1.63 12.06 5.22 31.12 1998-99 9.52 3.56 2.57 12.12 6.24 34.74 1999-2000 11.07 4.86 2.22 13.3 4.63 36.94 2000-01 10.5 5.91 1.34 8.7 7.33 34.7 2001-02 10.83 5.57 1.14 12.01 8.75 39.27 2002-03 3.37 1.84 0.83 6.79 4.15 17.4 2003-04 10.46 6.64 1.47 16.61 7.29 43.4 2004-05 10.42 3.99 1.38 12.93 5.26 34.71 2005-06 s 11.17 5.69 1.68 14.26 7.18 40.75 2006-07 s 3.06 1.36 0.85 7.54 2.54 15.72 % change 2005-06 to 2006-07 –73 –76 –50 –47 –65 –61 a State areas include wheat, barley, oats, canola, lupins, field peas, chickpea, faba beans and lentils. Australian totals also include triticale, linseed, safflower and vetch. s ABARE estimate.