» With below average rainfall and generally low subsoil moisture, summer crop production in Queensland is expected to be significantly lower than in the past couple of years. Rainfall in November and December enabled plantings of summer crops in south east Queensland. However, followup rainfall has been below average and, combined with relatively high summer temperatures, crops have suffered moisture stress. Yields are expected to be well below average in most areas.

» Rainfall across much of central Queensland in January and early February enabled further planting of grain sorghum to take place and substantially improved yield prospects for crops that were already planted. Although it is nearing the end of the planting season, the relatively high returns for sorghum are expected to result in farmers planting as late as they can in central Queensland. Total sorghum production is forecast to decline by 47 per cent to around 620 000 tonnes in 2006-07.

» The area planted to sunflowers is forecast to recover to around 21 000 hectares in 2006-07, despite the lack of early plantings. In central Queensland, sunflowers can be planted up to March. Therefore, an opportunity still exists for additional plantings to occur. However, the financial losses incurred by many sunflower growers through crop failure (caused by tobacco streak virus) over the previous two seasons are likely to discourage plantings reaching the level of five years ago. Sunflower production is forecast to increase from the 4000 tonnes produced last year to around 17 000 tonnes in 2006-07.

» Lack of presowing rainfall and a significant reduction in water allocations are estimated to have resulted in a 71 per cent fall in cotton area in 2006-07. The area of cotton to be harvested – 35 000 hectares – will be the smallest in twenty years, after a proportion of crops planted were ploughed in because of the lack of water. Production of cotton lint and cottonseed is estimated to decline by 73 per cent to 52 000 tonnes and 73 000 tonnes respectively.

» Winter crop production in Queensland is estimated to have fallen by 50 per cent to 850 000 tonnes in 2006-07. This reflects a significant decrease in the area sown to winter crops owing to the extremely dry start to the season, combined with poor growing conditions. The exception was central Queensland, where timely rainfall resulted in the vast majority of winter crops coming out of this region.

» The area planted to wheat is estimated to have fallen by around 43 per cent in 2006-07, as a result of the extremely dry start to the season in southern Queensland. Total production is estimated to have fallen to around 700 000 tonnes, only around half that in 2005-06. Wheat yields in central Queensland varied but were significantly better than in most areas of the Darling Downs.

» Production of barley is estimated to have fallen by around 63 per cent to 95 000 tonnes in 2006-07. The fall in production reflects the significant drop in the area sown to barley on the Darling Downs, one of the state’s major barley growing regions.

summer crop forecasts, 2006–07 – queensland production change from area yield a production 2005–06 `000 ha t/ha kt % Sorghum 270 2.3 621 –47 Sunflowers 21 0.82 17 287 Cotton seed 35 2.08 73 –73 Cotton lint 35 1.47 52 –73 a Yields are based on are planted.

winter crop estimates, 2006-07 – queensland production change from area yield a production 2005-06 `000 ha t/ha kt % Wheat 550 1.27 700 –49 Barley 90 1.06 95 –63 a Yields are based on are planted.