» The majority of cropping areas in southern Western Australia, South Australia, New South Wales and Victoria received average to above average rainfall in late April – early May, providing an excellent start to the 2007-08 winter cropping season. Rainfall in Queensland in early June has improved prospects for central and south east Queensland. However, the lack of subsoil moisture in most areas means that followup rainfall will be critical. Continued dry conditions throughout parts of the central and northern cropping zone of Western Australia mean that winter crop prospects for that state are below average at this stage.
» Fertiliser supplies have been a widespread concern, holding up sowing activity in some states as growers waited for shipments to arrive. Generally, however, the high price of fertiliser has not resulted in a reduction in intended planting area, as grower confidence in the season has prompted most growers to go ahead with intended plantings. However, some growers are expected to reduce application rates to reduce costs.
» The Australian Bureau of Meteorology in its latest seasonal rainfall outlook (22 May 2007) for the June–August period indicated there is no strong swing in the odds toward either above or below average winter rainfall. The chances of accumulating at least average rainfall are close to 50 per cent across the whole of Australia. The Bureau also announced on 30 May 2007 that there is an elevated chance of a La Niña event occurring in 2007. Historically, La Niña events bring wetter than average conditions across much of the eastern half of Australia from autumn onwards.
» The total area sown to winter crops in Australia is forecast to increase by 10 per cent to just over 20 million hectares in 2007-08. Assuming average yields, winter crop production is forecast to reach around 37 million tonnes in 2007-08, a 21 million tonne increase from the drought affected 2006-07 crop.
» Of the major winter crops, the area planted to wheat is forecast to rise by 11 per cent to 12.4 million hectares. Assuming a return to average yields, total wheat production in 2007-08 is forecast to be around 22.5 million tonnes, more than double production in 2006-07. Barley and canola area are also forecast to increase, by around 10 per cent and 7 per cent respectively. Barley production is forecast to increase to over 9 million tonnes, and canola production to around 1.4 million tonnes, almost triple the amount of canola produced in the previous season.
» Total summer crop production in 2006-07 is estimated to have fallen by around 57 per cent to around 1.9 million tonnes. Continued drought conditions over summer from last winter–spring in southern Queensland, northern New South Wales and the Riverina resulted in depleted soil moisture profiles and water storages, severely limiting summer crop plantings. Of the summer crops, grain sorghum production is estimated to have fallen by 52 per cent to around 950 000 tonnes. Both cotton seed and cotton lint production are estimated to have fallen by 54 per cent, to 388 000 tonnes of cottonseed and 274 000 tonnes of lint. Rice production is estimated to have dropped by 83 per cent to 167 000 tonnes, reflecting the significant decline in water availability.
rainfall
Widespread rainfall in New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia in April and May 2007 provided some relief to the extended dry period. The Bureau of Meteorology map of rainfall for March–May 2007 illustrates the seasonal rainfall deficiencies in central and northern Western Australia and Queensland. Details of rainfall received in the March–May period are provided in table A.
The Australian Bureau of Meteorology in its latest seasonal rainfall outlook (22 May 2006) for the winter period indicates that there is no strong swing in the odds toward either above average or below average rainfall. Over Australia the chances of accumulating at least average rainfall in the June–August period are relatively close to 50 per cent.(click here for map)
The national outlook for maximum and minimum temperatures averaged over winter (June–August) shows a moderate to strong shift in the odds toward warmer than average conditions in the north and west of the country. The chances are 60–70 per cent for above average maximum temperatures in Queensland, Western Australia and western South Australia. In western Western Australia, the chances reach a little over 75 per cent. The chances of a warmer than average winter over the south eastern states are 50–60 per cent. (click here for map)
A march – may rainfall in major grain growing regions
Average a
2005
2006
2007
2005
2006
2007
mm
mm
mm
mm
% of
% of
% of
Average
Average
Average
Queensland
Central Highlands (35)
130
94
120
47
72
92
36
Maranoa (43)
117
100
79
43
85
67
37
West Darling Downs (42)
120
79
55
62
66
46
52
East Darling Downs (41)
141
52
55
64
37
39
45
Moreton South Coast (40)
308
134
107
107
43
35
35
New South Wales
North West Plains (W) (52)
114
46
59
102
40
52
89
North West Plains (E) (53)
128
52
53
113
41
41
88
North West Slopes (N) (54)
136
46
61
135
34
45
99
North West Slopes (S) (55)
130
49
71
160
38
55
123
Northern Tablelands (N) (56)
153
63
101
175
41
66
115
Central West Plains (S) (50)
114
19
28
109
17
25
96
Central West Plains (N) (51)
113
31
38
103
27
34
91
Central West Slopes (N) (64)
140
56
65
138
40
47
99
Central West Slopes (S) (65)
138
26
29
131
19
21
95
Central Tablelands (N) (62)
142
67
64
156
47
45
109
Central Tablelands (S) (63)
211
64
42
170
30
20
81
Riverina (W) (75)
89
17
34
99
19
38
111
Riverina (E) (74)
111
24
43
113
22
39
102
South West Slopes (N) (73)
139
27
34
145
19
24
104
South West Slopes (S) (72)
183
67
99
206
37
54
113
Southern Tablelands (GM)(70)
156
69
67
130
44
43
83
Victoria
North Mallee (76)
69
13
59
120
19
86
174
South Mallee (77)
81
16
64
122
20
79
151
North Wimmera (78)
89
22
71
130
25
80
146
South Wimmera (79)
111
31
92
161
28
83
145
Lower North (80)
100
17
64
122
17
64
122
Upper North (81)
119
24
72
153
20
60
128
Lower North East (82)
176
55
120
216
31
68
123
Upper North East (83)
241
83
172
246
34
71
102
North Central (88)
162
47
125
182
29
77
112
Central Western (89)
141
48
116
149
34
82
106
South Australia
Upper South East (25B)
95
24
93
118
25
98
124
Murray Mallee (25A)
67
19
77
110
28
115
164
Murray River (24)
73
19
87
115
26
120
159
East Central (23)
136
26
136
182
19
100
134
West Central (22)
97
26
114
174
27
117
179
Lower North (21)
92
24
109
141
26
119
153
Upper North (19)
68
12
51
86
18
75
126
Western (18)
74
17
71
117
23
96
159
Western Australia
North Coast (8)
95
130
42
26
136
44
27
Central Coast (9)
172
211
60
106
123
35
62
Northern Central (10)
90
134
75
48
149
83
53
South Coast (9A)
198
272
121
159
137
61
80
South Central (10A)
102
184
72
69
181
71
68
South East (12)
78
63
95
55
81
121
70
Tasmania
Northern (91)
227
138
249
302
61
110
133
Midlands (93)
127
78
127
131
62
100
103
a. Average from 1913 to 2007.
The Bureau of Meteorology announced on 30 May 2007 that there is an elevated chance of a La Niña event occurring in 2007. Historically, La Niña events bring wetter than average conditions across much of the eastern half of Australia from autumn onwards.
The shire scale wheat forecasting system of the Queensland Department of Primary Industries and Fisheries combines starting soil moisture conditions with the seasonal outlook. The outlook at the beginning of June (map 1) is for a less than 30 per cent chance of exceeding long term median yields across most of the growing regions in Queensland (coloured orange). In New South Wales the chances of exceeding the long term median yields vary from less than 30 per cent in the north of the state to over 80 per cent in parts of the south. Throughout Victoria the chances of exceeding long term median yields vary between 40 and 80 per cent, with the majority of areas in the higher end of the range (coloured green). South Australia is also highly variable, with the chances of exceeding median yields being between 40 and 100 per cent. Western Australia’s chance of exceeding long term median yields is the most variable, between 10 and 100 per cent.
winter crop production
Widespread autumn rainfall across the majority of New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia has provided an ideal start to the 2007-08 winter cropping season. However, continued dry conditions throughout Queensland and parts of Western Australia mean that winter crop prospects in those states are below average at this stage.
B australian winter crop production a
new south wales
victoria
queensland
western australia
south australia
australia
Mt
Mt
Mt
Mt
Mt
Mt
1994-95
1.47
1.8
0.31
7.91
2.98
14.7
1995-96
6.74
4.35
0.74
10.22
5.16
27.79
1996-97
11.27
4.55
2.59
11.32
5.36
35.85
1997-98
8.29
3.21
1.63
12.06
5.22
31.12
1998-99
9.52
3.56
2.57
12.12
6.24
34.74
1999-2000
11.07
4.86
2.22
13.3
4.63
36.94
2000-01
10.5
5.91
1.34
8.7
7.33
34.7
2001-02
10.83
5.57
1.14
12.01
8.75
39.27
2002-03
3.37
1.84
0.83
6.79
4.15
17.4
2003-04
10.46
6.64
1.47
16.61
7.29
43.4
2004-05
10.42
3.99
1.38
12.93
5.26
34.71
2005-06 s
11.29
5.88
1.46
14.43
7.39
41.24
2006-07 s
3.06
1.36
0.84
7.54
2.54
15.71
2007-08 f
11.44
6.25
1.09
10.54
6.97
37.01
% change
274
361
30
40
174
136
a State areas include wheat, barley, oats, canola, lupins, field peas, chickpea, faba beans and lentils. Australian totals also include triticale, linseed, safflower and vetch. s ABARE estimate. f ABARE forecast.
Assuming average seasonal conditions in 2007-08, winter crop production is forecast to be around 37 million tonnes, over 21 million tonne greater than production from last year’s drought affected crop (table B). The rise in production reflects a larger area planted in most states, combined with improved yields. The total area planted to winter grains is forecast to rise by 10 per cent to just over 20 million hectares (table C).
Of the major winter grains, wheat production in 2007-08 is forecast to rise to around 22.5 million tonnes, a 12.7 million tonne increase from the previous season. Barley production is forecast to increase by 5.3 million tonnes to over 9 million tonnes in 2007-08. Canola production is forecast to be around 1.4 million tonnes, compared with 0.5 million tonnes in 2006-07.
C australian winter crop area a
new south wales
victoria
queensland
western australia
south australia
australia
million ha
million ha
million ha
million ha
million ha
million ha
1994-95
2.54
2
0.53
6.01
2.68
13.97
1995-96
3.75
2.11
0.84
6.23
2.9
16.13
1996-97
4.67
2.27
1.3
6.88
2.96
18.5
1997-98
4.4
2.2
1.18
7.11
2.95
18.26
1998-99
4.73
2.33
1.48
7.37
3.26
19.62
1999-00
4.81
2.52
1.3
7.47
3.24
19.76
2000-01
5.23
2.57
1.09
7.36
3.56
20.28
2001-02
5.15
2.54
0.76
7.14
3.75
19.82
2002-03
4.64
2.77
0.74
7.14
3.85
19.62
2003-04
5.92
2.97
1.03
7.65
3.91
21.98
2004-05
6.31
2.99
0.87
7.89
3.92
22.44
2005-06 s
5.24
2.75
1
7.6
3.8
20.82
2006-07 s
5.09
2.74
0.69
6.09
3.63
18.63
2007-08 f
6.2
2.96
0.75
6.23
3.85
20.44
% change
22
8
9
2
6
10
a State areas include wheat, barley, oats, canola, lupins, field peas, chickpea, faba beans and lentils. Australian totals also include triticale, linseed, safflower and vetch. s ABARE estimate. f ABARE forecast.
summer crop production
In southern Queensland, northern New South Wales and the Riverina, below average winter and spring rainfall resulted in depleted soil moisture profiles and water storages, severely limiting summer crop plantings. With the continuation of drought conditions throughout summer, total summer crop production is estimated to have dropped by 57 per cent to around 1.89 million tonnes (table D).
Of the major summer crops, grain sorghum production is estimated to have declined by around 52 per cent to 952 000 tonnes. The lack of irrigation water for rice growing in 2006-07 resulted in the estimated area planted to rice falling to 16 000 hectares — 84 per cent below the area planted in the previous season. In addition, cuts to water allocations during the growing season resulted in many producers having to abandon parts of their crop, further reducing the area under production and significantly affecting total rice production.
Despite the lack of water, the season provided favourable growing conditions for crops with adequate water, resulting in above average yields. Total rice production fell by 83 per cent, to around 167 000 tonnes for the 2006-07 season.
Australian cotton production in 2006-07 is estimated to have declined by around 54 per cent, to its lowest level in almost 20 years. Cottonseed and cotton lint production fell to around 388 000 tonnes and 274 000 tonnes respectively as a result of extremely low water availability at the time of planting combined with adverse seasonal conditions.
D Australian summer crop plantings and production a
New South Wales
Queensland
Australia
‘ 000 ha
Mt
‘ 000 ha
Mt
‘ 000 ha
Mt
1994-95
527
2.25
727
1.31
1317
3.63
1995-96
576
2.3
802
1.58
1466
3.98
1996-97
655
2.78
689
1.49
1431
4.37
1997-98
617
2.6
640
1.14
1335
3.82
1998-99
885
3.24
721
1.71
1741
5.1
1999-2000
742
2.9
770
2.03
1589
5.03
2000-01
827
3.38
816
1.79
1761
5.29
2001-02
777
3.15
794
1.77
1639
5.02
2002-03
509
1.58
521
1.2
1096
2.87
2003-04
436
1.77
708
1.81
1211
3.68
2004-05
496
2
773
1.79
1340
3.89
2005-06 s
752
2.74
623
1.56
1455
4.42
2006-07 s
318
0.99
374
0.8
761
1.89
% change
-58
-64
-40
-49
-48
-57
a State production includes sorghum, rice, cottonseed, maize and sunflowers. Australian production also includes soybeans, peanuts, mung beans and navy beans. s ABARE estimate.
