Most cropping regions of Australia recorded below to very much below average winter rainfall. August was a particularly dry month, with some grain growing regions recording their lowest winter rainfall on record. The dry conditions have resulted in a significant reduction in forecast winter crop production in 2006-07.
The prospects for winter crop production in New South Wales have declined over winter, with below average rainfall in many parts over the June–August period. In northern New South Wales, average rainfall was received during winter and, with reasonable subsoil moisture, crop development has been favorable. However, the late start to crop planting in southern and central New South Wales, combined with below average rainfall, is expected to result in significant yield penalties in these regions.
There has been a general and sharp decline in conditions across much of Victoria over the past few months, particularly in August. Crops have been under extreme stress for an extended period and yields are expected to be below to very much below average in most areas.
Current crop conditions in Queensland, combined with the seasonal rainfall outlook, indicate a high chance of a low yielding crop in 2006-07. There is, however, some variation between the state’s cropping regions, with the majority of the winter crop expected to come out of central Queensland, where the season so far has been favorable.
Rainfall throughout the winter months has been below average across the grains belt of Western Australia. While winter rainfall has been below average, conditions in the southern and central regions are better than in the northern districts. However, given that crops were generally sown late, a favorable spring will be critical for crops in all regions to reach current potential.
After a promising start to the winter cropping season, prospects in South Australia declined rapidly throughout August. Winter rainfall varied from below average to very much below average in most areas, with many areas having their lowest August rainfall on record. Combined with above average maximum temperatures in most districts and light frosts, yield prospects have declined sharply.
The total area sown to winter crops in Australia is estimated to be down by 15 per cent at around 18.6 million hectares in 2006-07. Dry seasonal conditions over the growing season in many areas are expected to result in forecast winter crop production of 26 million tonnes in 2006-07, down 36 per cent from 2005-06.
Of the major winter crops, the area planted to wheat is estimated to be down by 14 per cent to 11.1 million hectares. Production is forecast to decline by around 35 per cent to 16.4 million tonnes. Barley production is forecast to decline to around 5.8 million tonnes, a 41 per cent drop from the previous season. Canola production is also forecast to fall — to around 775 000 tonnes, its lowest level in ten years.
The extremely dry winter conditions mean that spring rainfall will be vital to secure summer crop plantings. Assuming average spring rainfall, the area sown to summer crops is forecast to decline by around 10 per cent in 2006-07, reflecting the decline in water availability for irrigated crops such as rice and cotton.
three month rainfall outlook
Rainfall across most of Australia throughout autumn and winter was below the long term average. Details of rainfall received in the April–August period are provided in table A.
The Australian Bureau of Meteorology in its latest seasonal rainfall outlook (23 August 2006) for the spring period indicates a mixed pattern. For the September–November period, the chances of above median rainfall are below 40 per cent across most of south west Queensland, parts of southern Victoria and northern Tasmania. Average spring rainfalls are expected for New South Wales and Victoria. In contrast, part of south west Western Australia has a 60–65 per cent chance of spring rainfall exceeding the long term median.
There is also a moderate to strong shift in the odds toward above normal daytime temperatures for spring over large parts of northern, south west and south eastern Australia, according to the Bureau of Meteorology.
Averaged over spring, the chances are above 60 per cent for higher than normal maximum temperatures across most of the tropics, south west Western Australia and a large part of south eastern Australia. The chances of seasonal minimum temperatures being higher than the median are above 60 per cent over nearly the whole country, reaching around 80 per cent in parts of the south east. This indicates a moderate to strong shift in the odds toward warmer than normal conditions.
A April - August rainfall in major grain growing regions
The shire scale wheat forecasting system of the Queensland Department of Primary Industries and Fisheries combines starting soil moisture conditions with the seasonal outlook. The outlook at the beginning of September (map 1) is for a 20–60 per cent chance of achieving below the long term median yields across most of the growing regions in Queensland and New South Wales (colored maroon and yellow). Throughout Victoria, the chances of falling below long term median yields is between 20 and 60 per cent. South Australia also has a 20–60 per cent probability of yields being below their long term median values. Western Australia’s chance of achieving long term median yields is variable, with some regions having a 20 per cent chance of below average yields and other regions having a 20 per cent chance of above average yields.
B Australian winter crop production a
New South
Western
South
Wales
Victoria
Queensland
Australia
Australia
Australia
Mt
Mt
Mt
Mt
Mt
Mt
1994-95
1.47
1.80
0.31
7.91
2.98
14.70
1995-96
6.74
4.35
0.74
10.22
5.16
27.79
1996-97
11.27
4.55
2.59
11.32
5.36
35.85
1997-98
8.29
3.21
1.63
12.06
5.22
31.12
1998-99
9.52
3.56
2.57
12.12
6.24
34.74
1999-2000
11.07
4.86
2.22
13.30
4.63
36.94
2000-01
10.50
5.91
1.34
8.70
7.33
34.70
2001-02
10.83
5.57
1.14
12.01
8.75
39.27
2002-03
3.37
1.84
0.83
6.79
4.15
17.40
2003-04
10.46
6.64
1.47
16.61
7.29
43.40
2004-05
10.42
3.99
1.38
12.93
5.26
34.71
2005-06 s
11.17
5.69
1.68
14.26
7.18
40.75
2006-07 f
7.58
3.86
0.94
8.43
4.55
25.99
% change
-32
-32
-44
-41
-37
-36
a State areas include wheat, barley, oats, canola, lupins, field peas, chickpea, faba beans and lentils. Australian totals also include triticale, linseed, safflower and vetch. s ABARE estimate. f ABARE forecast.
percentage departure of the forecast shire median yield for the 2006 season from the long term simulated median shire wheat yield, given a ‘consistently negative’ SOI phase during July–August period
* using OZ-Wheat
2
simulated long term median wheat yield, by shire (1901– 2006)
* using OZ-Wheat
winter crop production
Reflecting the drier than average winter cropping season in Australia in 2006-07, winter grains production is forecast to decline by 36 per cent to total 26 million tonnes (table B). The decline in production is expected to reflect below average yields and a reduced area planted in all states. The area planted to winter grains is expected to fall by 15 per cent to around 19 million hectares (table C).
CAustralian winter crop area a
New South
Victoria
Queensland
Western
South
Australia
Wales
Australia
Australia
million ha
million ha
million ha
million ha
million ha
million ha
1994-95
2.54
2.00
0.53
6.01
2.68
13.97
1995-96
3.75
2.11
0.84
6.23
2.90
16.13
1996-97
4.67
2.27
1.30
6.88
2.96
18.50
1997-98
4.40
2.20
1.18
7.11
2.95
18.26
1998-99
4.73
2.33
1.48
7.37
3.26
19.62
1999-00
4.81
2.52
1.30
7.47
3.24
19.76
2000-01
5.23
2.57
1.09
7.36
3.56
20.28
2001-02
5.15
2.54
0.76
7.14
3.75
19.82
2002-03
4.64
2.77
0.74
7.14
3.85
19.62
2003-04
5.92
2.97
1.03
7.65
3.91
21.98
2004-05
6.31
2.99
0.87
7.89
3.92
22.44
2005-06 s
5.16
2.79
1.16
7.95
3.89
21.38
2006-07 s
5.07
2.74
0.69
6.09
3.63
18.61
% change
-2
-2
-68
-30
-7
-15
a State areas include wheat, barley, oats, canola, lupins, field peas, chickpea, faba beans and lentils. Australian totals also include triticale, linseed, safflower and vetch. s ABARE estimate. f ABARE forecast.
Of the major winter grains, wheat production is forecast to fall by around 35 per cent to 16.4 million tonnes in 2006-07. Barley production in 2006-07 is forecast to fall by 41 per cent to 5.8 million tonnes. Canola production is forecast to be around 775 000 tonnes, a 46 per cent fall from the previous season.
The largest declines in area and production are expected to occur in Queensland and Western Australia. Reflecting the extremely dry conditions, the area planted to winter grains in Queensland and Western Australia is estimated to have declined by 68 per cent and 30 per cent respectively. The smaller area planted, combined with forecast lower yields, is forecast to result in a 44 per cent reduction in Queensland winter crop production and a 41 per cent decline in Western Australian production in 2006-07.
Although total winter crop production is forecast to decline in Western Australian and Queensland, there are areas in both states where seasonal conditions have been reasonable. Central Queensland and southern Western Australia are both expected to achieve average to above average winter crop production.
summer crop production
Total summer crop area is forecast to decline by 10 per cent to 1.4 million hectares in 2006-07 (table D). In northern New South Wales and southern Queensland, below average winter rainfall has depleted soil moisture profiles and water storage levels (table E). Assuming average spring rainfall, summer crop production is forecast to fall by 14 per cent in 2006-07.
DAustralian summer crop plantings and production a
New South Wales
Queensland
Australia
' 000 ha
Mt
' 000 ha
Mt
' 000 ha
Mt
1994-95
527
2.25
727
1.31
1317
3.63
1995-96
576
2.30
802
1.58
1466
3.98
1996-97
655
2.78
689
1.49
1431
4.37
1997-98
625
2.61
631
1.14
1337
3.84
1998-99
889
3.25
680
1.67
1709
5.08
1999-2000
728
2.88
737
2.03
1547
5.01
2000-01
825
3.39
802
1.76
1761
5.29
2001-02
777
3.15
794
1.77
1639
5.02
2002-03
509
1.58
521
1.20
1096
2.87
2003-04
436
1.77
708
1.81
1211
3.68
2004-05
496
2.00
773
1.79
1340
3.89
2005-06 s
736
2.78
765
1.65
1581
4.54
2006-07 f
609
2.03
737
1.75
1423
3.90
% change
-17
-27
-4
6
-10
-14
a State production includes sorghum, rice, cottonseed, maize and sunflowers. Australian production also includes soybeans, peanuts, mung beans and navy beans. s ABARE estimate. f ABARE forecast
Initial availability of irrigation water for rice growing in 2006-07 indicates a likely reduction in the area planted to 45 000 hectares, a 57 per cent fall from the area planted in 2005-06. The area sown to cotton is forecast to decline by 31 per cent to around 231 000 hectares.
The total area planted to grain sorghum is forecast to be 894 000 hectares in 2006-07, similar to the area sown last year. There is likely to be an increase in the area of fallow land available for summer cropping in southern Queensland following the reduction in planting of winter crops in these districts. However, with the below average winter conditions, spring rainfall will be vital to allow sorghum plantings to proceed.
