south australia After a promising start to the winter cropping season, prospects in South Australia declined rapidly throughout August. Cool to mild conditions throughout the state, combined with above average maximum temperatures in most districts and light frosts, placed additional pressure on moisture stressed crops. Winter rainfall varied from below average in parts of the Eyre Peninsula to very much below average in most other areas, with much of the south east having the lowest winter rainfall on record. August was particularly dry, with very much below average rainfall in all districts, with many areas having their lowest August rainfall on record. The dry conditions and warmer temperatures in the latter part of August have placed crops in all districts under increasingly severe moisture stress. The most severely affected areas are the upper south east, the southern Mallee and parts of the upper north and central Eyre Peninsula. Yield prospects dropped significantly over the past month and are now estimated to be significantly below the five year average. Total area planted to winter crops in South Australia is estimated to have been 3.63 million hectares. Total winter crop production is forecast to be 4.55 million tonnes in 2006-07, a 37 per cent drop from 2005-06, reflecting forecast below average yields. The area planted to wheat in South Australia is estimated have been only 2 per cent lower in 2006-07 at just under 2 million hectares, reflecting the early start to the season, combined with a much improved outlook for wheat prices. However, total South Australian wheat production is forecast to be 2.5 million tonnes, 30 per cent lower than in 2005-06. The area planted to barley in 2006-07 is estimated to have been 19 per cent lower at around 1.1 million hectares, reflecting the dry seasonal conditions and more favorable wheat prices. Assuming below average yields, barley production in 2006-07 is forecast to be 1.5 million tonnes, a 44 per cent reduction from 2005-06. The area planted to canola in South Australia in 2006-07 is estimated to have been at similar levels to last year, at around 150 000 hectares, reflecting the early break in the season. However, canola production is forecast to decline by 38 per cent to 136 000 tonnes in 2006-07, reflecting the lack of winter rainfall, combined with higher temperatures. South Australia winter crop estimates,  2006-07 Production change from Area s Yield f Production f 2005-06 000 ha t/ha kt % Wheat 1 980 1.26 2 500 -30 Barley 1 070 1.40 1 500 -44 Canola  150 0.90  136 -38 s ABARE estimate f  ABARE forecast. download excel data