There was a general and sharp decline in conditions across much of Victoria over the past few months. Crops have been under extreme stress for an extended period and have matured rapidly, exposing them to the risk of frost. Yields are expected to be below to very much below average in most areas, with some crops cut for hay if there is sufficient dry matter.
In early September, widespread rainfall across Victoria saved crops across much of the state. This gave many areas a two week reprieve; in other areas it was too late.
In the north east of the state, crops are rapidly coming to head, with early sown crops performing the best. However, late sown crops may not even produce enough dry matter to be cut for hay. In the south west of the state, crops still have the potential for reasonable yields if there is good spring rainfall.
There is a moderate shift in the odds toward below average spring rainfall in parts of southern Victoria. The chances of above median rainfall are between 35 and 40 per cent in the south west and south Gippsland and between 40 and 50 per cent across the rest of the state. This rainfall outlook means that moisture stressed crops will remain under substantial yield pressure.
The area sown to winter crops in Victoria is estimated to have declined by 2 per cent in 2006-07, to 2.74 million hectares. Total winter crop production is forecast to fall by 32 per cent to around 3.9 million tonnes, reflecting the poor seasonal conditions.
The area planted to wheat in Victoria is estimated to have fallen by 2 per cent to around 1.25 million hectares in 2006-07. Assuming below average yields, 2006-07 wheat production is forecast to fall by 26 per cent to around 2 million tonnes.
The area planted to barley in Victoria in 2006-07 is estimated to have declined by 9 per cent to 850 000 hectares. Production is forecast to fall to 1.1 million tonnes, 45 per cent below the previous season’s level, reflecting the reduced area sown and below average yields.
Canola production in Victoria is forecast to be 238 000 tonnes in 2006-07, around 30 per cent lower than in 2005-06. Area planted to canola is estimated to have fallen by 5 per cent to 213 000 hectares.
