rainfall

The Bureau of Meteorology map of winter rainfall (June–August 2007) illustrates the seasonal rainfall deficiencies over the majority of the grains belt (map 1). Details of rainfall received in the April–August growing period are provided in table A.

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology in its latest seasonal rainfall outlook (23 August 2007) for the September–November period indicates that there is no strong swing in the odds toward either above or below average spring rainfall over most of Australia. However, the odds favour a wetter than average spring in south west Western Australia, while a drier than average spring is forecast for some parts of eastern Australia.

The chances of exceeding median rainfall for the September–November period are 55–60 per cent in south west Western Australia. In contrast, the south east of South Australia, together with parts of western and southern Victoria have a 35–40 per cent chance of exceeding median spring rainfall, meaning that there is a 60–65 per cent chance of below average rainfall occurring (click here for map).

A april–august rainfall in major grain growing regions
		average a	2005	2006	2007	2005	2006	2007
		mm	mm	mm	mm	% of	% of	% of
						average	average	averge
Queensland
Central Highlands (35)		146	173	142	158	119	98	109
Maranoa (43)		156	192	83	128	123	53	82
West Darling Downs (42)		162	195	83	154	120	51	95
East Darling Downs (41)		193	163	101	181	84	52	94
Moreton South Coast (40)		334	266	159	292	80	48	88
New South Wales
North West Plains (W) (52)		169	210	133	149	125	79	88
North West Plains (E) (53)		196	237	146	184	121	75	94
North West Slopes (N) (54)		209	218	155	212	104	74	101
North West Slopes (S) (55)		221	223	171	257	101	77	116
Northern Tablelands (N) (56)		239	198	184	266	83	77	111
Central West Plains (S) (50)		185	169	116	170	91	63	92
Central West Plains (N) (51)		175	172	117	139	98	67	79
Central West Slopes (N) (64)		224	190	161	253	85	72	113
Central West Slopes (S) (65)		236	177	118	235	75	50	100
Central Tablelands (N) (62)		236	196	151	334	83	64	142
Central Tablelands (S) (63)		333	215	149	340	65	45	102
Riverina (W) (75)		155	163	108	130	105	69	84
Riverina (E) (74)		209	198	117	164	95	56	79
South West Slopes (N) (73)		260	265	137	229	102	53	88
South West Slopes (S) (72)		387	364	203	313	94	52	81
Southern Tablelands (GM)(70)		256	239	196	300	93	76	117
Victoria
North Mallee (76)		139	131	98	154	94	70	111
South Mallee (77)		164	146	109	168	89	67	103
North Wimmera (78)		198	162	120	188	82	61	95
South Wimmera (79)		257	220	167	265	85	65	103
Lower North (80)		198	165	127	167	83	64	84
Upper North (81)		244	222	151	225	91	62	92
Lower North East (82)		392	440	221	363	112	56	93
Upper North East (83)		550	473	296	454	86	54	83
North Central (88)		356	296	225	307	83	63	86
Central Western (89)		295	228	210	307	77	71	104
South Australia
Upper South East (25B)		224	190	127	215	85	57	96
Murray Mallee (25A)		146	145	100	143	99	68	98
Murray River (24)		160	173	119	149	108	74	93
East Central (23)		340	275	209	300	81	62	88
West Central (22)		251	219	185	279	87	74	111
Lower North (21)		228	184	131	173	81	57	76
Upper North (19)		159	122	83	97	77	52	61
Western (18)		188	114	124	116	61	66	62
Western Australia
North Coast (8)		279	278	118	144	100	42	52
Central Coast (9)		613	532	284	419	87	46	68
Northern Central (10)		234	241	128	155	103	55	66
South Coast (9A)		606	545	352	456	90	58	75
South Central (10A)		273	305	178	218	112	65	80
South East (12)		131	129	69	72	98	53	55
Tasmania
Northern (91)		523	567	431	527	108	82	101
Midlands (93)		228	269	163	202	118	71	88
a Average from 1913 to 2007.

The national outlook for maximum temperatures over spring shows a moderate to strong shift in odds toward warmer than average conditions in parts of the south east. The chances are 60–65 per cent for above average maximum temperatures over much of Victoria and adjacent areas of eastern and south eastern South Australia. In other areas, the chances of exceeding the average spring maximum temperatures are mostly 55–60 per cent. Average minimum spring temperatures are forecast to be warmer than average across virtually the entire country. The chances of increased overnight warmth are mainly 60–75 per cent, with values approaching 80 per cent in some areas of the north and west of the country (click here for map).

The shire scale wheat forecasting system of the Queensland Department of Primary Industries and Fisheries combines starting soil moisture conditions with the seasonal outlook. The outlook at the beginning of September (map 2) is for yields to be 20–60 per cent below long term median yields (map 3) across all states (coloured maroon, yellow and grey). Yields in New South Wales are likely to be highly variable, ranging from 20 per cent above average in the north east to 60 per cent below average across the central and southern districts. Yield forecasts for South Australia are also highly variable, with yields expected to range from average in the south east to more than 60 per cent below average on parts of the western Eyre Peninsula. Yields in Western Australia are expected to range from above average in parts of the south to 40 per cent below average in some parts of the northern zone. Yields in Victoria are estimated to range from average in the southern areas to 40–60 per cent below average in parts of central Victoria.

winter crop production
Winter grains production in 2007-08 is forecast to increase by around 63 per cent when compared with 2006-07, to total 25.6 million tonnes (table B). However, despite the increase in production from last year’s drought affected crop, total winter crop production is expected to be around 27 per cent below the five year average, reflecting the impact that poor winter rainfall has had on yield potential across most of the grains belt. This forecast is a downward revision of 11 million tonnes from ABARE’s June 2007 forecast. The area planted to winter grains in 2007-08 is estimated to have increased by 9 per cent, to just over 20 million hectares (table C).

Of the major winter grains, wheat production is forecast to increase by around 58 per cent to 15.5 million tonnes in 2007-08. However this is a downward revision of around 7 million tonnes from the June estimate, reflecting the effects of low winter rainfall on yield potential. Barley production in 2007-08 is forecast to reach around 5.9 million tonnes. Although this is a significant increase from 2006-07 production, it is well below initial estimates. Canola production is forecast to be around 1.1 million tonnes in 2007-08, double that produced last season but 24 per cent below the five year average.

The biggest decline in yield potential has occurred in New South Wales and South Australia, reflecting below to very much below average winter rainfall and virtually no September rainfall to date. The extremely dry conditions have been accompanied by above average daytime temperatures and gusty winds in many areas, placing additional pressure on moisture stressed crops.

B winter crop production – australia a
		new south wales	victoria	queensland	western australia	south australia	australia
		Mt	Mt	Mt	Mt	Mt	Mt
1994-95		1.47	1.8	0.31	7.91	2.98	14.7
1995-96		6.74	4.35	0.74	10.22	5.16	27.79
1996-97		11.27	4.55	2.59	11.32	5.36	35.85
1997-98		8.29	3.21	1.63	12.06	5.22	31.12
1998-99		9.52	3.56	2.57	12.12	6.24	34.74
1999-2000		11.07	4.86	2.22	13.3	4.63	36.94
2000-01		10.5	5.91	1.34	8.7	7.33	34.7
2001-02		10.83	5.57	1.14	12.01	8.75	39.27
2002-03		3.37	1.84	0.83	6.79	4.15	17.4
2003-04		10.46	6.64	1.47	16.61	7.29	43.4
2004-05		10.42	3.99	1.38	12.93	5.26	34.71
2005-06 s		11.29	5.88	1.46	14.43	7.39	41.24
2006-07 s		3.06	1.36	0.84	7.54	2.54	15.71
2007-08 f		5.88	5.15	1.14	8.7	4.06	25.59
% change		92	280	36	15	60	63
a State areas include wheat, barley, oats, canola, lupins, field peas, chickpea, faba beans and lentils. Australian totals also include triticale, linseed, safflower and vetch. s ABARE estimate. f ABARE forecast.

C  winter crop area – australia  a
		new south wales	victoria	queensland	western australia	south australia	australia
		million ha	million ha	million ha	million ha	million ha	million ha
1994-95		2.54	2	0.53	6.01	2.68	13.97
1995-96		3.75	2.11	0.84	6.23	2.9	16.13
1996-97		4.67	2.27	1.3	6.88	2.96	18.5
1997-98		4.4	2.2	1.18	7.11	2.95	18.26
1998-99		4.73	2.33	1.48	7.37	3.26	19.62
1999-00		4.81	2.52	1.3	7.47	3.24	19.76
2000-01		5.23	2.57	1.09	7.36	3.56	20.28
2001-02		5.15	2.54	0.76	7.14	3.75	19.82
2002-03		4.64	2.77	0.74	7.14	3.85	19.62
2003-04		5.92	2.97	1.03	7.65	3.91	21.98
2004-05		6.31	2.99	0.87	7.89	3.92	22.44
2005-06 s		5.24	2.75	1	7.6	3.8	20.82
2006-07 s		5.09	2.74	0.69	6.09	3.63	18.63
2007-08 f		5.98	3.08	0.74	6.22	3.82	20.28
% change		18	12	8	2	5	9
a State areas include wheat, barley, oats, canola, lupins, field peas, chickpea, faba beans and lentils. Australian totals also include triticale, linseed, safflower and vetch. s ABARE estimate. f ABARE forecast.

summer crop production
Total summer crop area is forecast to increase by 36 per cent to just over 1 million hectares in 2007-08 (table D). However, this is still 23 per cent below the five year average. Despite some rainfall in parts of northern New South Wales and southern Queensland recharging soil moisture profiles, water storages still remain critically low. Although summer crop production is forecast to increase to around 2.7 million tonnes in 2007-08, this would be 33 per cent below the five year average.

With limited availability of irrigation water for rice growing SunRice has sought expressions of interest from rice growers to produce 50 000 tonnes of rice in 2007-08. SunRice is offering contracts for specific areas of specific varieties at prices above those guaranteed last year. Most of the water will come from bores rather than surface water. Reflecting these developments, the area planted to rice in 2007-08 is estimated to be around 6000 hectares, the smallest planting since the industry’s early days in the first half of last century.

The total area planted to grain sorghum is forecast to be 761 000 hectares in 2007-08, a significant increase on the area sown last year. There is likely to be an increase in the area of fallow land available for summer cropping in southern Queensland owing to the reduction in planting of winter crops in these districts. The larger available area combined with improved winter rainfall and high prices for domestic sorghum mean the area planted in Queensland is likely to be closer to the five year average.

D summer crop plantings and production – australia a
	new south wales		queensland		australia
	‘000 ha	Mt	‘000 ha	Mt	‘000 ha	Mt
1994-95	527	2.25	727	1.31	1 317	3.63
1995-96	576	2.3	802	1.58	1 466	3.98
1996-97	655	2.78	689	1.49	1 431	4.37
1997-98	617	2.6	640	1.14	1 335	3.82
1998-99	885	3.24	721	1.71	1 741	5.1
1999-2000	742	2.9	770	2.03	1 589	5.03
2000-01	827	3.38	816	1.79	1 761	5.29
2001-02	777	3.15	794	1.77	1 639	5.02
2002-03	509	1.58	521	1.2	1 096	2.87
2003-04	436	1.77	708	1.81	1 211	3.68
2004-05	496	2	773	1.79	1 340	3.89
2005-06 s	752	2.74	623	1.56	1 455	4.42
2006-07 s	318	0.99	374	0.8	761	1.89
2007-08 f	368	1.16	595	1.41	1 037	2.68
% change	16	18	59	76	36	42
a State production includes sorghum, rice, cottonseed, maize and sunflowers. Australian production  also includes soybeans, peanuts, mung beans and navy beans. s ABARE estimate. f ABARE forecast.