new south wales The prospects for winter crop production in New South Wales declined over winter, with below average rainfall in many parts of the state over the June–August period. Above average temperatures in addition to the lack of rainfall have significantly reduced the yield potential of most crops. In central and northern New South Wales, variable rainfall during the growing season so far has resulted in a mixed outlook for crops. Crops east of the Newell Highway have a higher yield potential, reflecting greater in-crop rainfall. However, good spring rainfall and average temperatures are required to prevent yield penalties in all areas. In southern New South Wales, the early start to the season has been tempered by below average rainfall throughout winter and early spring, severely affecting crop development. Average to above average spring rainfall is required throughout most cropping regions to minimise moisture stress of crops, particularly from the heavy crop density this season stemming from of the good start. The area planted to wheat in New South Wales in 2007-08 is estimated to have increased by 19 per cent to 4 million hectares. However, a lack of in crop rainfall and above average temperatures during winter and early spring are expected to result in below average yields. Wheat production is forecast to be 4 million tonnes in 2007-08, which, despite the poor winter, is still a significant increase from last year’s drought affected crop. The area planted to barley is estimated to have increased by 12 per cent in 2007-08, to around 1 million hectares. Despite below average winter rainfall, yields are forecast to be above 2006-07 levels. Barley production is forecast to increase by around 460 000 tonnes in 2007-08, to just over 1 million tonnes. Following good rainfall in April and May in southern and central New South Wales, the area planted to canola increased by 33 per cent to 240 000 hectares. Canola production is forecast to increase in 2007-08 to 130 000 tonnes, but remain well below the five year average of 420 000 tonnes. Low water storage levels in southern New South Wales following below average winter rainfall are expected to lead to limited water availability for rice producers. The area sown to rice in 2007-08 is forecast to decline by 63 per cent to 6000 hectares. Rice production is forecast to be 50 000 tonnes in 2007-08, 70 per cent below last season. Continued dry conditions in most catchments and low water storages mean that the area of irrigated cotton is expected to be severely limited in 2007-08. The area planted to cotton in New South Wales is forecast to fall by 59 per cent to 45 000 hectares, the smallest area planted in 30 years. Assuming that seasonal conditions will be sufficient to achieve average yields, Australian cottonseed and cotton lint production is forecast to fall by 65 per cent in 2007-08 to 109 000 tonnes and 77 000 tonnes respectively. new south wales winter crop forecasts, 2007-08 area yield  a production production change from 2006-07 ‘000 ha t/ha kt % wheat 4 000 1 4 000 90 barley 1 010 1 1 010 84 canola 240 0.54 130 333 a Yields are based on area planted. new south wales summer crop forecasts, 2007-08 area yield  a production area change from 2006-07 ‘000 ha t/ha kt % sorghum 252 3.02 761 63 sunflowers 30 1.28 38 133 cotton seed 45 2.41 109 –59 cotton lint 45 1.71 77 –59 rice 6 8.33 50 –63 a Yields are based on area planted.