victoria Following one of the best starts to the winter cropping season in a number of years, conditions across much of Victoria over the past month have deteriorated. Despite average to above average rainfall in July across most cropping regions, crops have been suffering from moisture stress following below to very much below average rainfall in August. The lack of August rainfall combined with above average daytime temperatures and strong winds have placed additional pressure on crops. However, the good start to the season and the associated good subsoil moisture has so far prevented significant yield penalties in most regions. Light September rainfall to date has also provided some relief for crops. Crops in the Mallee suffered from varying degrees of moisture stress in August, which will result in yield penalties in some crops regardless of improved spring conditions. Based on the excellent start to the season, yields are expected to be average to above average in the Wimmera, if average spring rainfall is received. Central Victoria is still expecting average to above average yields. In contrast, north eastern cropping regions need rain to stabilise yield potential. Crops in many areas still have the potential for reasonable yields if there is good spring rainfall. There is a moderate shift in odds toward below average spring rainfall in parts of western and southern Victoria. The chances of above median rainfall are 35–40 per cent in parts of western and southern Victoria, meaning that there is a 60–65 per cent chance of below average rainfall occurring. If below average rainfall eventuates, moisture stressed crops are likely to remain under substantial yield pressure. The area sown to winter crops in Victoria is estimated to have risen by 12 per cent in 2007-08, to just over 3 million hectares, reflecting the good start to the season. Total winter crop production is forecast to almost triple to around 5.2 million tonnes, reflecting the increase in area sown, combined with improved yields. The area planted to wheat in Victoria is estimated to have increased by 20 per cent to around 1.5 million hectares in 2007-08, reflecting one of the best starts to the season in a number of years. Assuming average to below average yields, 2007-08 wheat production is forecast to reach around 2.7 million tonnes, more than four times what was produced last season. The area planted to barley in Victoria in 2007-08 is estimated at 920 000 hectares, an 8 per cent increase from 2006-07. Production is forecast to rise to around 1.6 million tonnes, more than three times that produced in 2006-07, reflecting the increased area sown and average to below average yields. Canola production in Victoria is forecast to reach 320 000 tonnes in 2007-08, a significant increase from the 42 000 tonnes produced last season. The area planted to canola is estimated to have risen by 27 per cent to 270 000 hectares, reflecting the ideal start to the season. victoria winter crop forecasts, 2007-08 area yield a production production change from 2006-07 ‘000 ha t/ha kt % wheat 1 500 1.8 2 700 315 barley 920 1.68 1 550 204 canola 270 1.19 320 662 a Yields are based on area planted.