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overview |
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Summer crop production is forecast to rise by 21 per cent to around 4.8 million tonnes in 2005-06, reflecting a larger area sown in both northern New South Wales and southern Queensland. |
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Above average rainfall in October and November throughout parts of Queensland and northern New South Wales boosted summer crop potential and enabled some late plantings to occur in southern Queensland. However, intense summer heat combined with below average rainfall after the new year has resulted in sorghum yield penalties, particularly in northern New South Wales and central Queensland. |
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Increased water availability has led to rice plantings more than doubling to 105 000 hectares in 2005-06. Favorable growing conditions have significantly increased prospects for rice in 2005-06. Although hot temperatures have resulted in crops flowering early, yields are forecast to be above average, with production forecast to reach 1 million tonnes. |
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Both cottonseed and cotton lint production in New South Wales are forecast to increase by 11 per cent in 2005-06. However, in Queensland cottonseed and cotton lint production are expected to decrease by 35 per cent owing to lower water availability. Cottonseed production in 2005-06 is forecast at 819 000 tonnes, with lint production at 578 000 tonnes. |
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Total Australian winter crop production for 2005-06 is estimated to have been around 40 million tonnes, up 15 per cent from the previous season. Good in-season rainfall and mild spring temperatures provided an ideal finish to the winter cropping season. |
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Production of the major winter crops, wheat and barley, is estimated at 25 million tonnes and 9.9 million tonnes respectively. Wheat production is estimated to have increased by 11 per cent from the 2004-05 harvest. Barley production is estimated to have increased by 28 per cent. In contrast, canola production is estimated to have declined by 6 per cent to 1.4 million tonnes in 2005-06, reflecting the dry conditions at sowing. |
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seasonal change
Summer cropping regions in northern New South Wales and southern Queensland received above average rainfall in October and November, improving the outlook for summer crops. However, average to below average rainfall was recorded in most of northern New South Wales and southern Queensland’s cropping region during December and January, causing depletion in subsoil moisture in most areas. The dry conditions have resulted in a downward trend in summer crop yield expectations, particularly in central Queensland. Details of rainfall received over the October 2005 to January 2006 period for the major cropping areas in Australia are provided in statistical appendix table 4. |
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three month rainfall outlook
The Australian Bureau of Meteorology in its latest seasonal rainfall outlook (24 January 2006) indicates that there is a moderate shift in the odds towards below average rainfall for the late summer to mid-autumn period (February–April) over north Queensland (click here for map). However, the chances of accumulating at least median rainfall during the coming three months are close to 50 per cent across the rest of the country.
In its latest temperature outlook (24 January 2006), the Bureau of Meteorology announced that there is a moderate shift in the odds of above median maximum temperatures for the February–April period in parts of northern Australia. However, the chances of exceeding the median maximum temperature for the coming three months for the rest of the country are close to 50 per cent.
As part of its research into yield forecasting, the Queensland Department of Primary Industries’ Agricultural Production Systems Research Unit (APRSU) has mapped long term median sorghum yields (map 1) and estimates the probability of those median yields in the current season (map 2).
| Map 1 Simulated long term median grain sorghum yield, by shire (1901-2005) |
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| Map 2 Probability of exceeding the long-term median shire sorghum yield, given the SOI phase was “Rapidly rising” at the end of Jan 06 |
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© State of Queensland, Dept. of Primary Industries and Fisheries.
The information in map 2 reveals that the probability of yields exceeding the long term median across most of the grain sorghum growing regions of northern New South Wales and southern Queensland is between 60 and 90 per cent (colored green). The probability of yields exceeding the long term median across grain sorghum growing regions of northern New South Wales is very low, at around 0–10 per cent.
At the end of January, soil moisture conditions and the seasonal rainfall outlook indicate that chances for an above median yielding sorghum crop in north eastern grain sorghum growing regions of Queensland are highly variable. Most areas in south Queensland, Dawson Callide (central Queensland) and northern New South Wales show average to above average chances of exceeding the long term median, while most areas in the rest of central Queensland show below average chances of exceeding the long term median. |
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summer crop production
Total summer crop area is estimated to have risen by 13 per cent to nearly 1.6 million hectares in 2005-06 (table A). Improved seasonal conditions and increased water availability have resulted in increased plantings of sorghum, cotton and rice.
Average to above average rainfall was received in northern New South Wales and parts of Queensland’s summer grain growing regions in both October and November, improving the outlook for summer crop production. However, a drier than average December combined with intense summer heat following the new year period resulted in yield expectations being revised downward.
For the major summer broadacre crop grain sorghum, the area planted is estimated to have increased by 11 per cent to 889 000 hectares, with production forecast to rise by 6 per cent to 2.3 million tonnes in 2005-06. Early expectations for grain sorghum production have been downgraded in response to high temperatures and lack of rain over the new year period.
Cottonseed production is forecast to be 819 000 tonnes and cotton lint production 578 000 tonnes in 2005-06, 10 per cent reductions from 2004-05. The lower production reflects a reduction in the area planted in Queensland due to water availability.
Above average spring rainfall in ke y irrigation catchment areas of southern New South Wales led to increased water allocations within the rice growing regions. Increased water availability has led to rice plantings more than doubling to 105 000 hectares in 2005-06. Although hot temperatures have resulted in crops flowering early, yields are forecast to be above average, with total rice production forecast to reach 1 million tonnes. This will be the largest rice crop since 2001-02.
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winter crop production
Total winter crop production is estimated to be 40.6 million tonnes in 2005-06, a 15 per cent increase from the previous season and the second highest winter crop production on record (table B).
Although many of the winter crops in eastern and southern Australia were sown outside the optimal planting time, average to above average spring rainfall and mild spring temperatures across the majority of growing regions provided an excellent finish to the cropping season.
Winter crop production in 2005-06 for the two major crop growing states of Western Australia and New South Wales are estimated at 14 million tonnes and 11 million tonnes respectively. Growing season conditions were variable throughout New South Wales, with the southern and central regions having the benefit of timely rainfall in the growing season. In northern New South Wales, dry conditions and hot temperatures affected crop growth and development and lowered production in these regions.
Of the major winter grains, wheat production is estimated to have increased by 11 per cent to 25 million tonnes in 2005-06. Barley production is estimated at 9.8 million tonnes, an increase of 28 per cent from the previous season. In contrast, canola production is estimated to have declined by 6 per cent to 1.4 million tonnes, due to the late start to the season.
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