new south wales

• Dry autumn conditions have been experienced across most of New South Wales, particularly in the southern and central regions. There was no significant rainfall by the end of May. However, widespread rainfall on the June long weekend provided some relief and will allow for more of intended plantings to occur. The outlook for below average rainfall from June to August, combined with the dry late start to the season is expected to result in the area planted in New South Wales falling in 2006-07.
  
  
• In northern New South Wales, there are some areas with reasonable subsoil moisture, where some planting has commenced. However, overall planting is behind schedule in the majority of the state, particularly in central and southern areas, where there is little to no subsoil moisture.
  
  
• The area sown to winter crops in New South Wales is forecast to fall by 3 per cent to 5 million hectares. It is forecast that rainfall over winter will be below average. As a result, winter crop production is forecast to fall by 14 per cent to 9.6 million tonnes.
  
  
• The area planted to wheat in 2006-07 is estimated to fall by 3 per cent to 3.4 million hectares, with a reduction in the area planted expected in all regions of the state. While planting can still occur until the end of June, low subsoil moisture and the late start to the season in many areas in southern and central New South Wales are likely to reduce the yield potential of the crop. In northern New South Wales the potential for wheat is currently greater than in the southern and central areas, due to higher soil moisture levels. Overall, wheat production in New South Wales is forecast to reach 6.8 million tonnes in 2006-07, 14 per cent lower than last year.
  
  
• The area planted to barley in 2006-07 is estimated to fall by 4 per cent to 975 000 hectares, reflecting the poor start to the season. Barley production is forecast to be just under 2 million tonnes, a 13 per cent reduction when compared with 2005-06, reflecting the reduced area and average yields.
  
  
• Despite canola plantings being adversely affected by the late start to the season in the southern and central areas of the state, the area planted is estimated to increase in 2006-07, to 165 000 hectares. However, assuming average yields, canola production is forecast to fall by 2 per cent to 248 000 tonnes.
  
  
• With a significant proportion of the grain sorghum crop harvested by the end of May, production is estimated to be around 840 000 tonnes in 2005-06, 12 per cent lower than in 2004-05, reflecting the extremely hot and dry conditions experienced in early 2006.
  
  
• Rice production in 2005-06 is estimated to have more than tripled to total over 1 million tonnes, reflecting higher water allocations and improved growing conditions. Rice yields in 2005-06 are estimated to have averaged 10 tonnes per hectare, 15 per cent above the five year average.
  
  
• Cotton lint and cottonseed production increased by 16 per cent in 2005-06 to 404 000 tonnes and 571 000 tonnes respectively. In 2005-06, the area planted to cotton increased by 31 per cent to 214 000 hectares, as a result of increased rainfall at sowing time and larger water allocations early in the growing season. However, extreme and prolonged hot weather during the growing season resulted in the yield and quality of some crops being adversely affected.
  

New South Wales winter crop estimates, 2006-07 Area change from Area f Yield f Production f 2005-06 `000 ha t/ha kt % Wheat 3 400 2.00 6 800 -3 Barley  975 2.00 1 950 -4 Canola  165 1.50  248 14   f  ABARE forecast.   New South Wales summer crop estimates, 2005-06 Production change from Area s Yield s Production s 2004-05 000 ha t/ha kt % Sorghum 300 2.80 840 -12 Sunflowers 75 1.25 93 157 Cotton seed 214 2.66 571 16 Cotton lint 214 1.88 404 16 Rice 105 9.98 1048 224   s ABARE estimate   download excel file