queensland

• Average to below average rainfall was recorded for almost the entire cropping region of Queensland during autumn, with the exception of central Queensland. Central Queensland received good rains in early April, which enabled widespread planting of winter crops. All anticipated wheat and chickpea areas were planted into average to good soil moisture profiles. However, rainfall in June is essential for crop development.
  
  
• In southern Queensland there are only small areas of winter crop planted, mainly in the west of the region. Soil moisture is marginal around the major winter production regions in southern Queensland. Planting of winter crops is yet to commence in the Darling Downs and will not do so if rainfall is not received in June.
  
  
• Areas in southern Queensland have only half full moisture profiles, while some areas of the western Downs and south west are down to 30 per cent of the potential soil moisture profile. The exception is in central Queensland where average to above average rainfall was recorded during February to May resulting in subsoil moisture levels closer to 66 per cent. Crops sown into profiles with low soil water are more dependent on in-crop rainfall.
  
  
• Low levels of subsoil moisture combined with forecast below average rainfall are likely to reduce the yield potential of the winter crop. Total winter crop production in Queensland is forecast to fall by 20 per cent in 2006-07 to total 1.35 million tonnes.
  
  
• The area planted to wheat in Queensland is forecast to fall by 11 per cent to 850 000 hectares. In the Darling Downs, significant rainfall is required to enable crops to be planted. Low subsoil moisture in many areas is likely to reduce the yield potential of the crop. While most areas of the state show a below average chance of exceeding the long term median wheat yield, some areas in Central Queensland show a near average to slightly below average chance. Wheat production in Queensland is forecast to reach 1.1 million tonnes in 2006-07, 20 per cent lower than last year.
  
  
• The area planted to barley is forecast to fall by 24 per cent to 118 000 hectares in 2006 07, primarily reflecting expected lower sowings in the Darling Downs, one of the state’s major barley growing regions.
  
  
• Chickpea production is forecast to fall by 9 per cent in 2006-07, to 41 000 tonnes, reflecting a smaller area planted. Early rain in Central Queensland allowed a significant area of chickpeas to be planted. However, with the dry conditions in southern Queensland, planting intentions in that region are unlikely to be realised.
  
  
• Grain sorghum production in Queensland for 2005 06 is estimated to have declined by 5 per cent to 1.17 million tonnes. While early sown crops in southern Queensland achieved average to above average yields, later sown crops, which accounted for the majority of area planted, received little in-crop rainfall. The hot and dry conditions from January to April 2006 reduced yield potentials and, in some cases, crops were ploughed in or baled. This situation was especially prevalent in central Queensland where crops were planted on marginal subsoil moisture.
  
  
• Production of cotton lint and cotton seed is estimated to have fallen by 35 per cent in 2005-06 to 194 000 tonnes and 274 000 tonnes respectively. This reflected lower water availability in many cotton growing districts, combined with extreme temperatures during the growing period, which resulted in yield penalties.

Queensland winter crop estimates,  2006-07 Area change from Area f Yield f Production f 2005-06 `000 ha t/ha kt % Wheat  850 1.30 1 105 -11 Barley  118 1.70  201 -24   f  ABARE forecast.   Queensland summer crop estimates, 2005-06 Production change from Area s Yield s Production s 2004-05 000 ha t/ha kt % Sorghum 585 2.00 1170 -5 Sunflowers 4 1.01 4 -70 Cotton seed 121 2.26 274 -35 Cotton lint 121 1.60 194 -35   s ABARE estimate   download excel file