overview

• Most cropping regions of Australia recorded below to very much below average rainfall during the summer of 2005-06. With the exception of South Australia, the dry trend continued throughout autumn across most states.
  


• As a result of dry conditions in most cropping areas of New South Wales and southern Queensland, a small portion of intended winter crops were dry sown in the period up to mid-June. However, widespread rainfall throughout New South Wales over the second weekend of June will allow for more of the intended crop to be planted. The current lack of subsoil moisture, particularly in southern and central New South Wales, means that crops in these regions will be more than usually vulnerable to dry seasonal conditions.



• In Victoria, widespread May rainfall allowed significant planting to occur on reasonable soil moisture. However, planting has stopped due to lack of any follow up rain and the early sown crops that have emerged are now suffering from moisture stress, combined with severe frosts in some regions.



• Autumn rainfall was average to above average in the majority of South Australia’s cropping regions. Good rainfalls in early June on the Eyre and Yorke Peninsulas, and through the midnorth leaves only the northern and south eastern districts looking for rain to complete sowing.



• Conditions across the Western Australian grains belt have been variable. In early June the majority of the grains belt was in need of rainfall. Crops that have already been sown are starting to suffer from moisture stress as well as the effect of relatively warm temperatures for this time of year.



• The total area sown to winter crops in Australia is forecast to be down by 6 per cent to around 20 million hectares in 2006-07. Assuming average yields, winter crop production is forecast to be around 36 million tonnes in 2006-07, down 11 per cent from the 2005-06 season crop.
  


• Of the major winter crops, the area planted to wheat is forecast to be down 5 per cent to 12.4 million hectares and production is forecast to decline by around 9 per cent to 22.8 million tonnes, reflecting a return to average yields. Barley and canola are also forecast to have reduced plantings and yields, with production forecast to be 8.5 million tonnes and 1.4 million tonnes respectively.



• The 2005-06 Australian summer crop harvest is now complete and production is estimated to have increased by 15 per cent from the previous year, reaching 4.5 million tonnes. Of the summer crops, grain sorghum production is estimated to have fallen by 8 per cent to around 2 million tonnes. Cotton production is estimated to have fallen by 7 per cent to 844 000 tonnes of cottonseed and 597 000 tonnes of lint. Rice production is estimated to have increased significantly in 2005-06, to over 1 million tonnes, compared with just 323 000 tonnes in 2004-05, reflecting increased water availability and favorable seasonal conditions.
  
  

three month rainfall outlook

Rainfall across most of Australia throughout summer 2005-06 was below the long term average. The dry trend continued through April and May. Details of rainfall received in the March–May period are provided in table A.

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology in its latest seasonal rainfall outlook (25 May 2006) for the winter period indicates that there is a moderate shift in the odds toward below average winter (June–August) rainfall across parts of eastern Australia. For the rest of the country, the chances of accumulating at least average rain during winter are close to 50 per cent. (click here for map)

For the June–August period, the chances of above median rainfall are between 30 and 40 per cent over much of southern Queensland and northern New South Wales, southern Victoria (except East Gippsland), south eastern South Australia and northern Tasmania (see map). This means that there is a 60–70 per cent chance of below average falls.

There is also a moderate to strong shift in the odds toward above average maximum temperatures for winter across most of southern Australia, according to the Bureau of Meteorology. For the June–August period, the chances of above average seasonal maximum temperatures exceed 60 per cent over most of mainland Australia south of the Tropic of Capricorn, reaching 65–70 per cent in inland northern New South Wales and southern Queensland, as well as parts of west central Australia.

The average to below average outlook for rainfall and forecast high temperatures, combined with the current low soil moisture conditions, mean that the timing of rainfall will be critical to 2006-07 winter crop production.

A March - May rainfall in major grain growing regions Average a 2004 2005 2006 2004 2005 2006 mm mm mm mm % of % of % of Queensland Average Average Average Central Highlands (35) 132 50 94 120 38 71 91 Maranoa (43) 119 142 100 79 120 84 66 West Darling Downs (42) 122 144 79 55 118 65 45 East Darling Downs (41) 144 120 52 55 83 36 38 Moreton South Coast (40) 314 222 134 107 71 43 34 New South Wales North West Plains (W) (52) 116 153 46 59 132 40 51 North West Plains (E) (53) 130 156 52 53 120 40 41 North West Slopes (N) (54) 138 113 46 62 82 33 45 North West Slopes (S) (55) 131 105 49 73 80 37 56 Northern Tablelands (N) (56) 154 125 63 103 81 41 67 Central West Plains (S) (50) 116 65 19 27 56 16 23 Central West Plains (N) (51) 115 107 31 37 93 27 32 Central West Slopes (N) (64) 141 118 56 68 83 40 48 Central West Slopes (S) (65) 140 78 26 30 56 19 21 Central Tablelands (N) (62) 144 82 67 65 57 47 45 Central Tablelands (S) (63) 215 78 64 41 36 30 19 Riverina (W) (75) 90 32 17 34 35 19 38 Riverina (E) (74) 113 47 24 45 42 21 40 South West Slopes (N) (73) 142 41 27 35 29 19 25 South West Slopes (S) (72) 185 81 67 98 44 36 53 Southern Tablelands (GM)(70) 159 49 69 68 31 43 43 Victoria North Mallee (76) 69 24 13 60 35 19 87 South Mallee (77) 81 34 16 64 42 20 79 North Wimmera (78) 89 43 22 72 48 25 81 South Wimmera (79) 112 74 31 93 66 28 83 Lower North (80) 101 42 17 64 42 17 63 Upper North (81) 120 55 24 73 46 20 61 Lower North East (82) 177 96 55 120 54 31 68 Upper North East (83) 244 138 83 64 57 34 26 North Central (88) 164 98 47 124 60 29 76 Central Western (89) 142 112 48 117 79 34 82 South Australia Upper South East (25B) 96 58 24 93 61 25 97 Murray Mallee (25A) 67 32 19 79 48 28 118 Murray River (24) 72 34 19 90 47 26 124 East Central (23) 136 80 26 134 59 19 98 West Central (22) 97 81 26 110 83 27 113 Lower North (21) 92 40 24 108 44 26 117 Upper North (19) 69 26 12 49 38 17 71 Western (18) 74 61 17 72 83 23 98 Western Australia North Coast (8) 96 75 130 41 78 135 43 Central Coast (9) 173 114 211 58 66 122 33 Northern Central (10) 90 75 134 74 83 149 82 South Coast (9A) 198 130 272 120 66 137 60 South Central (10A) 101 57 184 71 56 181 70 South East (12) 78 100 63 95 127 80 121 Tasmania Northern (91) 227 214 138 248 94 61 109 Midlands (93) 127 97 78 129 76 61 101   a. Average from 1913 to 2006. download excel file